Sep 21st, 2008 at 11:06 am
Race and the Race
It should come as no surprise to anyone that racial prejudice exists in the United States and is probably a factor in the election. What’s interesting about this data, however, is the extent of the partisan gap in racial attitudes among white people. That white Democrats have more positive views of black people than do white Republicans, with white independents falling in the middle, is hardly shocking. But the fact that on most of these attributes white independents are much closer to white Republicans is, to me, a very interesting result.
33 Responses to “Race and the Race”
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September 21st, 2008 at 11:10 am
“Interesting”? How about downright disturbing? This is one thing that worries me about this election. How many who say they will vote for Obama won’t be able to pull the lever for an African American once they’re in the voting booth? In an election that goes down to the wire, racial prejudice could be a decisive factor.
September 21st, 2008 at 11:20 am
That actually doesn’t surprise me too much. At the risk of generalizing too much from my own experience, most of the independents I’ve known are basically Republicans, but they think since they don’t officially identify with a party, and dissent with the GOP on a few cosmetic issues, that they came by all their opinions in an honest, Mavericky fashion. McCain is these people’s patron saint.
September 21st, 2008 at 11:26 am
Some independents might be racist ex-Democrats who are still Democrats on non-racial issues.
September 21st, 2008 at 11:30 am
Frustrating is the word that comes to my mind. Glad you guys didn’t wait until mid November to think about what Obama’s chances of winning are. Of course, it wouldn’t have been a lot better to think about this, oh, 6 months ago. Obama is right on every issue and this will be a tough election to win.
September 21st, 2008 at 11:32 am
Here’s Matt again trying to walk around the disturbing reality that 85% of Republicans support McCain, while only 70% of Democrats support Obama.
The fact that racism is bi-partisan must never, ever cross Matt’s mind, because it might cause a headache.
September 21st, 2008 at 11:43 am
“The fact that racism is bi-partisan must never, ever cross Matt’s mind, because it might cause a headache.”
Racism IS bipartisan, despite the fact that we’ve got one political party that has done almost everything it can to be racially tollerant and inclusive and another that has done almost everything it can to let white racists know where their natural political home exists.
Mike
September 21st, 2008 at 11:43 am
The Democratic numbers would probably be better if not for the fact that there are still many Dixiecrats in certain parts of the country. These Democrats are simply too stupid to have noticed yet that they are actually Republicans. For example, in West Virginia and Kentucky, Dems enjoy huge voter registration advantages, yet Gore and Kerry lost, and Obama is not seriously competing (remember how well he performed there in the primaries?). You will also recall Obama’s performance among white voters in the primaries in deep south states like Mississippi and Louisiana.
September 21st, 2008 at 11:49 am
Here’s Matt again trying to walk around the disturbing reality that 85% of Republicans support McCain, while only 70% of Democrats support Obama.
Your numbers are out of date. Recent national polling shows Obama with about 85% of Democrats, and McCain with about 90% of Republicans.
September 21st, 2008 at 11:55 am
Yes, most independents are stealth Republicans, even if many of them don’t know it. And, yes, many Americans are racists, even if many of them don’t know it.
I think it’s possible for Obama to win, but it will be a very close thing.
McCain’s cluelessness about the economy is Obama’s best shot at winning, but everything has to go just right with the campaign. One key: That first debate — Obama has to take Big John apart, destroy him rhetorically. A resulting McCain temper tantrum live on the teevee would be a nice bonus.
September 21st, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Debates don’t matter. Gore destroyed Bush in the first debate. Everyone agreed he destroyed him right afterwards. Two days later Gore’s sighs and know it allism and elitism and wonkism made him unfit.
September 21st, 2008 at 12:04 pm
The media environment is, to say the least, far friendlier to conservatives, than in the years in which the most dramatic instances of the Bradley effect were observed. Thus it seems improbable that a significant number of people would feel cowed into telling pollsters they intend to vote for Obama, when in fact they intend to vote for McCain. Racial prejudice is no doubt wide and deep, but it’s a fairly safe bet the polling to date has already captured nearly all of it.
September 21st, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Indeed, and because there’s always been more Democrats, and because there’s always a fair number of self-identified Democrats (especially in the South) who never actually vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, this isn’t all that worrisome.
September 21st, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Bingo, describes my mother in law to a T.
She calls herself an independent because she has voted for a Democrat for president (exactly once, in 1960).
September 21st, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I like the category, “white Republicans”. It is sort of like “white polar bears” or “white milk”. I imagine that, if they could find any black Republicans, they would come up with the same bigoted responses – self-hatred is a strange mistress.
The idea that these fiercely bigoted folks turn to putty when answer a pollster’s questions – what if he thinks I’m a bigot? – and thus support Obama in a po mouthed voice (I might be a cracker, but I got a reputation to protect if I ever visit Manhattan) is pretty comic, but McCainites have to grasp any thin twig that offers itself. Maybe it has such currency because, in the liberal cultural atmosphere of journalism, the secret bigots, people like William Saletan and the like, feel all repressed. So perhaps we are looking at projection, here.
September 21st, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Roger,
I have a black woman friend who’s a Republican. She’s evangelical, and votes largely based on the life issue.
September 21st, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Unlike most people here, I have met very few independents who are Republicans in denial — fewer, even, than the number I’ve met who are Democrats in denial, and remember that this study aside, independents are usually more like Democrats than Republicans. The independents I’ve met chiefly fall into two categories: very low information voters and two-party dropouts.
“Very low information voters” simply don’t know enough about the two parties to know which policies to associate with which party. They’re not necessarily stupid — if pressed, some can express a nuanced understanding of the virtues of tax cuts versus deficit reduction versus government spending — but they ignore the political realm except during elections, and then they tend to vote on the “who would you rather have a beer with” metric.
“Two-party dropouts,” on the other hand, have strongly-expressed preferences that neither party adopts. Many of them are economic liberals and social conservatives. They don’t consider themselves Republicans, because Republicans oppose unions, but they don’t consider themselves Democrats, because teh Gays make them feel icky. They tend to vote for whoever does a better job of downplaying the portions of the party platform that they don’t like. (Most of them vote Democratic at the local level, but split down the middle at state and national elections.)
September 21st, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Despite this, Obama will still win. The racism is still there a-plenty but enough people are willing to closet their malignancy this year to put the country back on track. Wishful thinking? Maybe, but, as for now – I believe it.
September 21st, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Well, that would explain why independents split (give or take 5-10 points) between Obama and McCain, despite largely preferring Obama’s policies. Some independents are simply choosing to vote against the black guy whose policies they largely agree, because that’s more important to them.
But don’t say that that’s racist of them — they’re not racist, they’re just voting against someone because… um… shut up, they’re just not racists! (/sarcasm)
September 21st, 2008 at 5:47 pm
I think it’s because most independents are white, and while they agree with Democrats in general on the issues, they really resent the fact that their hard-earned tax money might actually go to help some undeserving black person.
If they recognized the fact that blacks might have some legitimate claims to redress, and that programs that help blacks also help lower income whites, than they would be considered liberal Democrats. Yet another way that the toxic legacy of Ronald Reagan and Rush Limbaugh, and the evergreen appeal of the Southern Strategy distort our politics.
September 21st, 2008 at 6:21 pm
This is great news – for Petey and Sailor!
September 21st, 2008 at 8:27 pm
My step-mother, a lady of a certain age, started out certain she could not vote for Obama, though denying his race had anything to do with it (of course I strongly suspect otherwise). But the pick of Joe Biden for the VP spot reassured her that there would be someone older and more experienced (and yes, white) at Obama’s side, and everytime John McCain opens his mouth he pisses her off more. The Palin pick was the last straw: she’s firm now that she’s voting for Obama. (And oh yes, she lives in Michigan)
How many other working-class white Democrats may follow the same path? It’s not like McCain’s doing a great job of connecting with these people and their concerns, and Palin is bound to alienate a lot of people who already mistrust the GOP for its adherence to the Religious Right.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:40 am
Hm… I don’t know if I’d have said blacks are any of the listed attributes. Hard-working? Violent? Good neighbors? Lazy? Well, some of them are any of these things, and some aren’t. Same is true of whites, American Indians, Asians, etc. The whole poll seems to depend on the assumption that you’re willing to make rather individualized descriptions — whether positive or negative — of a whole group of people with only their melanin level binding them together.
Some adjectives that I think do and don’t describe blacks:
Sunburn resistant: Yes.
Good at synthesizing vitamin D: No.
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