Matt Yglesias

16 Responses to “Norman Angell’s Revenge”

1. ron Says:
   September 3rd, 2008 at 8:13 am

   Bloggers need to get this story right.
   This was a neocon adventure, with Israel and the US instigating it.
   You would think the lessons of Iraq would be clear by now.

2. Robert Jennings Says:
   September 3rd, 2008 at 8:31 am

   I think assuming that falling equity prices in the short run will deter Putin’s Russia is similar to assuming that China worries about the value of its US treasury holdings, maybe at the margin but it doesn’t drive policy

3. Petey Says:
   September 3rd, 2008 at 8:37 am

   “One hopes that’ll create some incentive for Russian elites to think twice next time something of this sort is under consideration.”

   The elites in Russia are only elites if they don’t think twice. Otherwise, they become this…

4. matt (not the famous one) Says:
   September 3rd, 2008 at 9:29 am

   Some comments: If people in Russia stop eating at Georgian restaurants they are as dumb as people who (supposedly) boycotted French wine before the 2nd gulf war. Georgian food is great, some of the best to be had. It’s important to know, though, that Russia had been blocking the import of Georgian wine, mineral water, and other goods for several years before the war as part of a build-up to it using transparently fake “safety” concerns. The same thing happed in Moldova. If you don’t know this stuff you’ll not understand the situation in the countries. Second, Russia isn’t as well connected to the international market as it could or should be, largely because of it’s huge and constantly growing (under Putin) bureaucracy, it’s bad legal system, and it’s terrible infrastructure. Very little has been spent on improving this despite huge oil revenue. Thirdly, most companies can’t afford, like BP, to have their huge investments stole 3(!) times by the state so they wisely only invest what they can afford to lose- it’s really a gamble to invest there and will be for a long, long, time, at least until long after the gang of criminals that rule the country leave.

5. Don Williams Says:
   September 3rd, 2008 at 11:23 am

   RE Matthew’s comment “Obviously, being connected to the world of international commerce hasn’t stopped Russia from throwing its weight around on the world stage in some malign ways. But on the other hand, it looks like there really has been a price to pay for Russian companies in terms of declining stock values ”
   —————-
   Er.. has Matthew looked at the US S&P 500 index during George Bush’s term?

   As I noted yesterday, Russia’s RTS Index has gone from 163 to 1667 since Bush entered office — a GAIN of 1000 percent.

   The S&P 500, in contrast, has FALLEN from 1327 to 1283. Adjust for inflation and investors in the US Stock market have been REAMED.

   As have been the Chinese. The Shanghai composite rose from 2000 in Jan 2001 to only 2325 today.

   But it had been up to 6000 last year until investors realized how much US Securities are held by China — and what a pile of shit those securities are.

   What’s Chinese for “We are SO screwed”??

6. Dan Kervick Says:
   September 3rd, 2008 at 11:37 am

   I doubt this market sluggishness will persist. Eventually, the bargain hunters will leap in. And the presidential election in November will help to end uncertainty about future US policy. Long term, Russia has probably succeeded in re-establishing itself as the key player in Caspian basin energy supplies, which will ultimately attract more investment to Russia, and away from foreign competitors.

   Yes, Russia has just thrown some weight around recently in the ongoing competitive struggle for profit and power in the Caucuses and the Caspian. I don’t see that is any more or less malign than the weight thrown around in the same region by Russia’s far abroad competitors. This is just business. There is nothing grandly ideological about it. I sure wish people would stop confusing the needs of BTC, the Israeli desire for air bases near Iran, and the Georgian market for western weaponry with the Cause of Freedom Itself.

   It would be good if bloggers like Matt would use their spaces to get our idiot politicians to stop playing buccaneer games with miscalculating proxies like Saakashvili; to stop ransoming our energy security to the edgy gambles of the high stakes, militarized competitions of the global energy business and its state-provided muscle; and to negotiate a more durable arrangement with Putin and Russia over energy supplies flowing from the Russian near abroad. He needs to stop running witless interference for the demagoguery of people like Condoleeza Rice, Joe Biden and Randy Scheunemann.

   By the way, does anyone think the Palin decision might have been motivated in part as a signal of support to British Petroleum and Georgia, given that Todd Palin is a BP employee?

7. Peter K. Says:
   September 3rd, 2008 at 12:22 pm

   I think assuming that falling equity prices in the short run will deter Putin’s Russia is similar to assuming that China worries about the value of its US treasury holdings, maybe at the margin but it doesn’t drive policy

   China should be worried about the American consumer who purchases their goods. We are codependent. If we go down so will they.

   I sure wish people would stop confusing the needs of BTC, the Israeli desire for air bases near Iran, and the Georgian market for western weaponry with the Cause of Freedom Itself.

   Sure, but the Russians going on about genocide and human rights is laughable, especially after providing diplomatic cover for the ethnic cleansings Serbs and after their conduct in Chechnya. After all the Muslim Chechens just wanted their freedom, much as the South Ossetians do. I guess, though, if you can provide a counterweight to the American Imperium you will be forgiven of everything.

8. Dan Kervick Says:
   September 3rd, 2008 at 1:12 pm

   Peter K.

   I agree about the genocide. South Ossetia was attacked, and Georgia did significant damage to life, limb and property. But there was no genocide. The South Ossetia genocide is as much as crock as the mythical Kosovo genocide which has also gone up in a puff of historical smoke. These are just the marketing pitches the global power elites use to sell their wars to the rest of us rubes.

   I’m just so sick of the snake oil, and I don’t care whether it is Karl Rove, George Bush, John McCain, Vlad Putin, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden or Barack Obama who is pitching it.

9. Visceral Says:
   September 3rd, 2008 at 2:34 pm

   I disagree. The American economy has taken a big hit from 8 years of Republican rule, while politically connected companies have never done better, and this is sold as a strong economy for everyone.

   I think in Russia it’s the same; their Establishment only cares about the companies that they own.

10. piotr Says:
    September 3rd, 2008 at 10:02 pm

    I think Putin is rather consistent: foreign investments in oil and gas are chiefly used for their amusement value. (The last joint venture with BP was really hilarious, but I must admit, Russians do not repeat the same trick twice. According to my recollection, even Chinese were fleeced. On the other hand, investing in other parts of Russian economy does not carry huge risks.

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