Sep 28th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
LA Times Poll: Debate Produces Small Gain for Obama
Check out the writeup here. The movement in Obama’s favor is no great shakes, the real import is in the lost opportunity for McCain — if he wants to win the race, he needs to pick up ground somewhere.
57 Responses to “LA Times Poll: Debate Produces Small Gain for Obama”
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September 28th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Do I hear wedding bells?
September 28th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
We’re in the fourth quarter now, and every second that Obama is not losing means he is winning. I agree with Chris Rock, McCain is like a boxer who’s just barely holding on at this point. The knockout will come.
September 28th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Deeply Unrelated Thought:
There exists a band named Wolf Parade; there also exists a band named Mice Parade, apparently unrelated to the former.
Are we about to run out of, not just money, but band names?
September 28th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Man, and here I was about to name my band “Bear Parade.” Thanks for the heads up.
September 28th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
I heard we were running out of ip addresses and band width.
September 28th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
I agree with Chris Rock, McCain is like a boxer who’s just barely holding on at this point.
That Chris Rock interview with Larry King was highly entertaining.
September 28th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
McCain is going to vote against the bailout bill. It will be extremely popular in the country.
He really needs to roll the dice and what better way to roll the dice than to push the world towards GPII (Great Depression II)
September 28th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
McCain is going to vote against the bailout bill.
Anything’s possible with McCain. But he’s boxed himself in pretty well on this one, with his surrogates suggesting he played a key role in moving the negotiations forward.
If he really wanted to play the maverick/leader card here, he would have lead the House Republicans in a charge to kill the bill. He didn’t do that. So if he votes against it, he looks pretty feckless.
September 28th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
Weasel Parade
are:
Johnny Drama – vocals, lead guitar
Bible Spice – bass, moose
Steve Schmidt – random effects generator
Rick Davis – lobbyist
September 28th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
I prefer “Mooselini” to “Bible Spice”, personally, but the Johnny Drama nickname is perfect.
September 28th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
McCain is going to vote against the bailout bill.
McCain is not going to vote on the bailout bill at all. Not because he’s spineless and morally bankrupt, because he’s a MAVERICK. The benefit of being a maverick is the ability to hold all possible positions on any given issue at once.
September 28th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Well, the topline number didn’t move much for Obama, but the internals moved a lot in his favor. That suggests to me this wasn’t just a lost opportunity for McCain, but rather that Obama also accomplished some of his goals.
September 28th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Obama is turning out to be The Big Let-Down of ’08.
Obama kept insinuating that He is The Second Coming but every time we’ve held our breaths waiting for him to change water into wine, we’ve been disappointed. Obama kept telling us to ‘tune in next week!’ and he never delivers, the miracle never comes. There is nothing there.
Obama’s has a problem with clarity. I have systematically studied both his autobiographies and I still don’t know what kind of man I’m dealing with. When he was first showcased on TV, my interest was aroused. I used to find Obama enigmatic, but now he just comes off as vacuous, empty.
Obama’s two books address the questions of “Journey of Discovery to Where?” and “Who Am I?” We can all relate to such pondering. But Obama does not give us an answer. If he has found the answer since publishing those two books two years ago then he hasn’t told us yet.
McCain has been on a longer and harder personal journey. There can be nothing more extreme than surviving daily torture for five years. Can you imagine that? To be beaten day-in and day-out, starved, your hands and legs bound by chains? McCain already knows what he can take, and humbly knows where he breaks. Every man and woman has a breaking point. It is very human. McCain already knows his, even though he held out as long as he could.
What trials or stories of human devastation has Obama endured? I can’t imagine being Black in America is an easy thing. But Obama was raised in Polynesia by white grandparents and then went on to Harvard, community service, the Senate, and now the presidency. Obama’s journey seems to have been very easy. His skin color opened all the right doors for him instead of slamming them shut. Obama didn’t march against segregation. Obama didn’t fight for affirmative action. He planted no tree. He carried no water for that tree. Obama has just come along and picked the fruits. That is easy street. This is not a great American story. This is not a triumph of will over adversity. This is a story of baby-boomer entitlement. This is the story of the yuppy next door. These stories are a dime a dozen on aisle 3 at Whole Foods.
You may agree or disagree with McCain but at least you know where he stands. He has a long track record to judge him by. McCain has a long list of hits and misses. He has made mistakes (like us all) but that is because he had been trying to do things and change things all his life. Obama markets himself as the candidate with an unblemished record, but that is only because he doesn’t have a record. We have nothing to judge Obama by. All he gives us is his word and we are supposed to put all our trust in his future promises. But these promises keep changing: Obama has produced two contradictory promises on Iraq, two contradictory promises on NAFTA, and two contradictory promises on taxes. Are we supposed to judge him by the original promise he made, or by his most recent one? The candidate who flows with the changing winds of polls is the lightweight. That much we know.
I feel very embarrassed for buying into the Obama phenomena. Maybe now that the weather is changing I see things in a new light. I feel sheepish for falling for the marketing pitch. Where do I go to get a refund?
I think that many voters like me are looking for clarity in our next president. I feel I know what kind of man McCain is, and that I can trust him. McCain gets my vote.
September 28th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
Uhhh . . . OK Mike
September 28th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Mike’s point + 3 = 3
September 28th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Matt I kind of agree. But I would say its a bit better for Obama than you suggest.
The movement Obama got vis-a-vis internals was good, better than the topline. But hey, I still take increasing a national lead by 2 points – its not nothing.
But I also agree with your central point – this was an important opportunity for McCain that is now gone. Not his last opportunity but important one where he clearly had a strategy to basically disqualify Obama. It didn’t work and Obama actually modestly improved his standing.
The campaign rolls on.
September 28th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Anyone know what the heck mike is talking about?
McCain is going to unleash the sleaziest fuselage of advertising this country has ever seen. The last week, in battleground states, slime will ooze from TV and radio sets at such a prodigious rate that some people will be buried alive.
These deaths will, of course, be Obama’s fault because he made McCain do it with his better run campaign and sounder judgment.
September 28th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
sleaziest fuselage
A real crap rocket, eh?
September 28th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Mike is either a) very young; b) someone with limited writing ability, prone to somewhat bizarre non-sequiturs; c) a McCainiac operative; d) all of the above.
We report, you decide!
September 28th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
TJ, I think I like yours better…but yeah i meant fusillade. Elitist bastards:)
September 28th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
The topline is modest, but as Nate at 538 says, debates seldom move the dial a great deal. The big deal is the internals. Obama made big gains in his presidential appeal and that he is notably more so than McCain is critical.
That change will produce more movement as time goes on.
September 28th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Actually, “crap rocket” would work as a band name.
September 28th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Mike, you sound a little desperate. Panicked, even. As if your candidate had been caught flat-footed. Sarah Palin was the biggest celebrity on the planet, and now her star is fading, and you don’t quite know what to do, do you? So you’re spamming blog threads.
Listen, maybe as a gesture of unity on Inauguration Day, President Obama will allow you to use your guns to fire off a solitary salute to international socialism before he confiscates them and builds a public housing tower next to your house.
I hope you like Kenyans. ha ha.
September 28th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
I think I like “sleaziest fuselage” better. It suggests a really expensive plane.
September 28th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Yeah, yeah, we can all go home now. Matt’s picked the election for Obama…
Right.
Meanwhile, the important thing is that we find out more about Cameron’s origin on tomorrow’s episode of Terminator.
About as important as this fuckin’ poll.
September 28th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
If the GOP can find it within themselves to allow McCain to make a stink and derail the universally loathed bailout bill, he might still have a chance to win the election. Otherwise he’s done.
September 28th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
“Bible Spice”
I love you.
Also, why is Obama considered to be the heavy favorite in the debate about the economy? Always thought he could’ve been better vs. Clinton on those questions.
September 28th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Darnint, I’m Trademarkinging and then forming the band “Crap Fuselage” for the inevitable post election world tour. Featuring:
Lead Singer: John “Maniac” McCain
Lead Guitar: Sarah “Primeval” Palin
Bass: Rick “Dungheap” Davis
Drums: Steve “Shitheap” Schmitt
Backup Vocals:
Bill “Everybody’s Hitler who ain’t on my side” Kristol
Charles “I light the fuses, baby” Krauthammer
Monica “I’m just reading the lines” Crowley
Greatest Hits: “You loved me till ya Knew Me”, “I’m the most Mavericky Maverick”, “Did you hear…I was a POW”
Shoot, their hits sound country but the band name sounds punk….Now that might work
September 28th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
And yeah, I know McCain knows nothing about economics.
September 28th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
So it’s a quantum mechanics thing.
September 29th, 2008 at 12:10 am
mike gets 2 McCain Maverick Points, with a penalty for abject random cut-and-paste spam.
Another 23 and he can redeem his total for the assets of Lehman Brothers.
September 29th, 2008 at 12:37 am
A maverick strays from the herd. Doesn’t mean the herd follows.
Poor Johnny. Roaming the Arizona badlands all on his lonesome.
September 29th, 2008 at 1:55 am
55: I think you have to favor Obama for the domestic issues/economy debate because A) Democrats have the generic advantage on dealing with the economy, and (B) Obama’s specific proposals poll better than McCain’s specific proposals. (Of course, those two points are related–generally Democrats propose more popular economic policies, so the public generally likes them on the economy better.) Add in the fact that after their first meeting, it doesn’t appear likely that McCain has the ability to really upstage Obama on style alone, and you’ve got to think that the third debate is going to be more damage control than opportunity to make up ground for McCain.
September 29th, 2008 at 4:50 am
Obama will win this election handily. How could he not with his opponent self-destructing in this absurdist excuse for a campaign. I am so looking forward to watching the racist yokels squirm under a black president who is 10 times more gifted than the best of them.
Band name: the Squirming Hillbillies
September 29th, 2008 at 5:10 am
So if I get Mike right, we should just choose the President by who’s had the hardest life? I’m sure we can find several guys who were tortured or otherwise maimed in a war but didn’t grow up the son and grandson of admirals, and didn’t marry a wealthy beer heiress when his old wife got too un-sexy for him.
September 29th, 2008 at 7:41 am
whatever Mike’s talking about, he’s doing it everywhere.
don’t bother responding to him, he’s a copy/paste troll.
September 29th, 2008 at 7:42 am
ah… pseudonymous in nc was there first.
September 29th, 2008 at 7:44 am
I was only able to watch about 3 minutes of the debate in a kind of cumulative way — in and out of the room a lot over the course of the evening. Mostly I saw 2 guys reciting their stump speeches. Obama looked pensive and down when McCain spoke, and McCain made odd faces into the camera when Obama spoke. McCain looked creepy. I don’t think you’re going to see a big boost in Obama positive numbers from the debate, but there will be a bump in McCain negatives. McCain looked immature, neurotic, and maybe a little nuts.
September 29th, 2008 at 7:47 am
A cross between The Small Faces and a punk band: The Angry Squirts.
September 29th, 2008 at 7:56 am
Meanwhile, the important thing is that we find out more about Cameron’s origin on tomorrow’s episode of Terminator.
I propose Hack limits his commenting topics to Summer Glau and Andrea Corr. At least he’s coherent on those subjects.
All in favor…?
September 29th, 2008 at 9:05 am
By the way, this is the first day in which any movement in the daily trackers is more likely to be caused by the debate than McCain’s suspension stunt. So it should be interesting to see what happens.
September 29th, 2008 at 9:20 am
if he wants to win the race, he needs to pick up ground somewhere.
Maybe Bush can find that place for him under his desk, along with Saddam’s WMDs.
September 29th, 2008 at 11:37 am
McCain is obviously using the some of all possible histories method.
December 7th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — A dispute over a woman brought the hail of gunfire that left two men wounded outside T.G.I. Friday’s restaurant Tuesday night, police sources told the Advance. Also, investigators believe they’ve identified the
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December 8th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
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