Kim and Geopolitical Pessimism
Mysterious news out of North Korea about Kim Jong-Il’s health provides an opportunity to use this cool-looking photo of the DPRK military doing some totalitarian chic marching:
Meanwhile, the news, according to Mark Mazzetti and Choe Sang-Hun is that “Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s leader, is seriously ill and is likely to have suffered a stroke weeks ago, American officials said Tuesday, raising the prospect of a chaotic power struggle in nuclear-armed North Korea.” Doesn’t this seem like a bit of a glass half empty way of looking at the world? Sure, you could see a chaotic power struggle in nuclear armed North Korea. But can’t we also raise the prospect of somewhat-less-terrible leadership coming to power? We’d be talking about a low bar to clear.
46 Responses to “Kim and Geopolitical Pessimism”
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September 10th, 2008 at 10:20 am
I choose “C”.
September 10th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Does anybody really know enough about North Korea’s internal politics to predict what could happen one way or another? I certainly don’t and haven’t read anything that convinces me anybody else has the foggiest idea either. I imagine that China, North Korea’s most ally-like entity, would play a major role in any transfer of power which could be a good thing. But again, who knows? Speculating about North Korea is counting angels on a pin head.
September 10th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Are those bazookas? That’s bad-ass.
September 10th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Are those bazookas? That’s bad-ass.
I think they’re Mandalorian Heavy Repeaters. Watch out Onderon!
September 10th, 2008 at 10:28 am
RoboticGhost beat me to it. I look forward to a link to a North Korean Internal Power Struggles Blog. None exists? Damn free market of ideas!
September 10th, 2008 at 10:29 am
I wonder how much of the world is watching the incomprehensible US campaign season and wavering between half full glasses and half empty ones as they watch whether the sleazy old warmonger or the bright young thing will emerge from the slime.
September 10th, 2008 at 10:30 am
It was my understanding that there are two large factions in the DPRK, one that’s pro-china and the other that’s pro-Kim. IIRC there have been about 3 (obviously unsuccessful) coup attempts by the pro-china faction over the past 10 years. Given their inability to stage coups and the level of purging that surely followed, can we assume that the pro-Kim faction of the military will succeed in finding a replacement, probably either Kim Pyong-il or Kim Jong-chul?
And either way, I was under the impression that reports had shown that even Kim Jong Il recognized the need for economic liberalization, but was stonewalled from implementing Chinese-style reforms by the military. If that’s the case, than the actual “leadership” of the country isn’t really the issue, the story IS about the power vacuum that takes place, and the chaotic internal fighting between factions in the Red Army.
September 10th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Kim Jong-very Il was/is a mentally unstable dynastic ruler. Whoever wins a power struggle will necessarily have his wits about him. He may be a dangerous tyrant, probably will be, but is less likely to do something crazy, like launch a nuclear attack or sell nukes to terrorists.
September 10th, 2008 at 10:44 am
E. O’Neal, I don’t think he’s actually mentally unstable, I think he just acts like that in order to have more negotiation power. And seeing as how it’s a pretty successful strategy, I’d say whoever succeeds him is either going to have to maintain the same strategy or liberalize the economy, and probably the former.
Also in my post I didn’t cite my sources:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20587473-2703,00.html
Also, I should have said “Korean People’s Army”, not “Red Army”. Whoops!
September 10th, 2008 at 10:45 am
What you can’t tell in that photo is that they’re all 23 inches tall.
September 10th, 2008 at 10:58 am
I’m with you, Matt. Kim doesn’t have an heir, as his eldest son, the one who was groomed for the role from birth, has turned out to be one of those rich kids they make reality shows about. The guy got caught using a fake passport trying to get into Japan; I know they set the bar low in the DRoK, but hell, Sarah Palin is more qualified than that fool.
The other son, who is supposedly quite competent, has some big hindrances in terms of leading a totalitarian regime. As in, he’s got a glandular problem and as a result looks like a woman and has breasts. What I hear coming out of the RoK is that he may be the best choice, but Kim Jong-Il has no respect for him because of his womanly ways and he will never end up in charge as a result. Even if Kim Jong-Il did favor the younger, testosterone-deficient son, I doubt he could be an effective leader of a state like North Korea where the cult of personality plays an extremely important role.
Over the last decade, reunification with South Korea has looked like more and more of a possibility. I would think that there has to be a substantial chunk of leadership, military or otherwise, that might be willing to parlay their positions in the hierarchy into some sort of reunification plan in which they’ll get a huge payoff from the South. I’m not sure that a true junta would function there, and it seems that there is by no means a clear-cut successor. The military leaders at the top might determine that it’s in their best interests to cooperate to further the reunification process, perhaps not too much, but enough to allow more economic cooperation with their southern neighbors, allowing them to take a big chunk of the profits and allowing for a slow transition to reunification. Obviously, this is something of an ideal scenario, but it isn’t outside the realm of possibility.
September 10th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Too bad Kim Jong-Il does not have a quieter, less charismatic younger brother in charge of the military to hand over the reins of power to.
September 10th, 2008 at 11:11 am
jono, if he’s faking being crazy, he’s a helluva actor. But I see your point. Appearing irrational and erratic can be an effective negotiating strategy.
September 10th, 2008 at 11:21 am
OTOH, Whitey, Kim Jong-Il was considered a ne’r do well son up until the point when Kim Il-Sung died.
On the other other hand, Kim Jong-Il was groomed for power a little more explicitly and publicly than any Kim Jong-Il heir.
September 10th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Kolohe, you’ve got two seemingly contradictory “on the other hands” there. Can you clarify?
September 10th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Might now not be a bad time to announce plans to withdraw troops from the Korean Penninsula, say in 2 years? While they’re pondering their future leadership (perhaps violently), it would be nice to reduce the perceived threat the US poses to the North Korean regime since this threat is their justification for having nukes.
We can always cancel the plans if N. Korea doesn’t significanlty improve its behavior.
Big worry: new leader needs to prove he’s a tough guy somehow (missile tests?).
Bigger worry: unstable military warlords regime emerges, selling nukes to Al Qaida. We would probably have to invade at that point, no?
September 10th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Wow. I think that must be how all parades appeared to Sigmund Freud.
September 10th, 2008 at 11:40 am
I look forward to a link to a North Korean Internal Power Struggles Blog. None exists? Damn free market of ideas!
This http://www.dprkstudies.org/ is about as close as you can get
September 10th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
What I’ve read about Jong-Il makes him seem more spoiled and stupid than actually crazy. Not much of an improvement.
September 10th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
mark f-
I suppose the last sentence should have started “On the third hand…”
September 10th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Might now not be a bad time to announce plans to withdraw troops from the Korean Penninsula, say in 2 years?
We’ve been trying to quietly draw down since the start of the Iraq war. (and have reduce some strength to shift the assets to the middle east). It’s a plurality of ROK public opinion that mitgates us from doing it faster. IIRC, there’s still wailing and nashing of teeth (from Seoul politicians) over the imminent Youngsan closure.
September 10th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
edit: I see now that the Yongsan closure is still 4 years away (2012). I thought I had heard it was four years away four years ago.
September 10th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Kolohe Says:
September 10th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
mark f-
I suppose the last sentence should have started “On the third hand…”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
See comment #1. “D” is looking better and better, though.
September 10th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Granted, it sort of does look impressive to have everyone marching with RPG-7s, but it makes no sense otherwise since it’s not an infantryman’s primary weapon. I can’t imagine the Soviets, any of the Warsaw Pact countries, or even Cultural Revolution era China staging such a marching unit. Then again, is there any point to a military parade other than to look impressive?
September 10th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Really, the bazookas (RPGs?) are just a bit overkill.
September 10th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
We could be in for a classic psych/sociological experiment: what is better, wealth or power?
Usually, one begets the other, so it’s not a strict either/or choice. But let’s say Kim Jong-Il dies, and the result is a fairly stable oligarchy. Now this elite has a choice:
(1) If they want to hold on to power, it will be very hard to increase North Korea’s wealth, and since it’s not really possible to be even more exploitative than Kim Jong-Il has been, it will be very hard for them to increase their personal wealth.
(2) If they want to increase their wealth, then, the easiest option is to move towards reunification or, option 2A, become a Chinese puppet. This jump starts the economy, bringing them enormous personal wealth — but they now must answer to their betters in South Korea or China.
Which will they choose? Hard to say, but it will be fascinating to find out.
September 10th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
I know they set the bar low in the DRoK, but hell, Sarah Palin is more qualified than that fool.
… Are there moose in Korea?
September 10th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
No, and they have gun control.
September 11th, 2008 at 6:14 am
China is probably in a position to shape what happens next.
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