Sep 8th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Holiday in Venezuela
Russia to send ships to Venezuela for a little visit and, it seems, to tweak the United States. It’s a bit hard to see what kind of benefit the Russians are expecting to see from a stunt like this since they’re nowhere near posing a credible blue water challenge to the West and would, I think, need to spend themselves into penury to get anywhere in the neighborhood. Probably a nice publicity coup for Hugo Chavez, though, as increased Moscow-Washington tensions seem to be giving being the “guy American doesn’t like” in a given region new cachet.
33 Responses to “Holiday in Venezuela”
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September 8th, 2008 at 10:14 am
For the cost of some fuel, they give George Bush another round in the chamber for some foot shooting.
September 8th, 2008 at 10:15 am
This is totally harmless and we should welcome it. Hitching your star to Russia is not something that’s going to scare your neighbors.
September 8th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Re Matthew’s comment “It’s a bit hard to see what kind of benefit the Russians are expecting to see from a stunt like this since they’re nowhere near posing a credible blue water challenge to the West and would, I think, need to spend themselves into penury to get anywhere in the neighborhood ”
————
Er..Matthew may want to do some research before he moves into military blogging.
Start by asking what happens if Russia tosses a nuclear MIRV platform at each of our 12 carriers?
See http://www.flickr.com/photos/81161990@N00/261520672/
and imagine a fireball at the end of each stream.
September 8th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Er..Matthew may want to do some research before he moves into military blogging.
Start by asking what happens if Russia tosses a nuclear MIRV platform at each of our 12 carriers?
um, the end of civilization as we know it?
Although it would take care of that pesky global warming thing.
September 8th, 2008 at 10:31 am
How exactly would it benefit Russia to start a nuclear war? Is this really the level of reasoning here?
September 8th, 2008 at 10:39 am
I think it’s nice we’ve moved from rational actors engaging in diplomacy to geopolitical wang measuring and aggrieved cries of “Oh yeah? Let’s see how they like this!”
http://thesebastards.blogspot.com/
September 8th, 2008 at 10:54 am
From the Russian perspective I think they want to put out as many signals as possible that they are serious about their “near-abroad” concerns. They were stunned that Putin’s infamous Munich speech didn’t seem to faze anyone. Still, the whole Georgia crisis is a pretty sign that they are serious–the thing with Chavez just sounds weak. Also, I don’t remember Matt commenting on this, but Russia and Cuba have been getting friendlier lately and increasing military ties. I suppose in the final analysis this is another way to show that we have our own security concerns, our own “near-abroad,” and we shouldn’t forget it.
September 8th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Re El Cid’s comment “How exactly would it benefit Russia to start a nuclear war? ”
———–
Actually, it might not be Russia which “starts” it. It might be Bush reading Matthew Yglesias’s blog and thinking Russia’s blue water ships are a bitch to be slapped around.
Escalation can get out of hand –especially if you underestimate the opponent or don’t really understand the mix of options the enemy has.
Neither the Russians –nor the US military for that matter –regard nuclear war as an uncrossable taboo. Ask Japan. Or ask the Germans living near the Fulda Gap. My father-in-law was in charge of some of the “tactical nukes” in Germany.
Both Russia and the USA would fry 100 million people if they felt their back was to the wall. The lesson of the Cuban Missile Crisis was that we should therefore NOT back each other into a corner — a lesson forgotten (or never learned) by decision-makers in the Bush Administration and Republican Party. Most of whom –like the Commander-in-Chief — have never been within 1000 miles of an active battlefield.
Contrary to Matthew’s jingoistic comment, our almighty “Blue Water Fleet” — well, the Surface part at least — could be largely turned to toast at the press of a button.
September 8th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Tit for tat. Make the US government spend themselves into their own penury playing the game. We know they will as they have bet it all on being the toughest guys on the planet and appear ideologically incapable of backing down. Putin continues the game that Bin Laden started. So far it seems to working out very well for them.
September 8th, 2008 at 11:09 am
RE David’s comment “the thing with Chavez just sounds weak. Also, I don’t remember Matt commenting on this, but Russia and Cuba have been getting friendlier lately and increasing military ties.”
————-
LOOK at the nautical charts!
A lot of US oil refineries are in the Houston -New Orleans arc. Because of extensive, shallow water reefs in the Caribbean, Deep draft oil tankers from the Middle East and elsewhere have to enter a narrow, thousand mile long slot starting near Grenada (ring a bell?) and passing by Cuba.
Well outside the range of US fighters based on continental US airfields.
Guess what a Russian bomber or two would do to that long line of oil tankers?
My guess is that we will soon see Russian bombers flying out of Cuba , just as we saw in the Cold War.
But A new bomber airfield in Venezuela would really poke Big Oil in the butt with a sharp stick. Because its a lot farther from the USA than Cuba. Venezuela would be a hell of a lot harder to invade than Grenada.
September 8th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Anything the gives conservatives fits can’t be all bad. Hell, let them sail into Chesapeake Bay. There would be a sizable number in Congress and the administration that would stroke out in fits of apoplexy. The YouTube replays of Palin trotting along the shoreline firing her moose rifle on Russian trawlers would be a hoot.
September 8th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
I suppose the point in part is just to remind Washington that Russia has important friends in our hemisphere, and is not without options if the US and Europe continue their aggressive expansionist agenda to bring NATO all the way up to the borders of Russia. In a crisis, the Russians have the ability to disrupt supplies from the Persian Gulf, the Caspian basin and the Caucusus, and even, it now appears, shut off supplies from Venezuela.
The bi-partisan decision to double down on NATO expansion following the Georgia-South Ossetia crisis was stupid and counterproductive. We could have appealed to the assertive missile defense deal with Poland as the totality of our necessary “statement”, and could then have cooled our jets on NATO expansion without being seen as backing down. On the Democratic side of the equation, I am particularly peeved with Joe Biden’s over-the-top performance on his trip to Georgia.
Yes, we won the Cold War and were entitled to a reasonable claim on the spoils. A more sensible policy would have been to say that NATO gets the former Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern Europe, at least those that want NATO membership, and the Russians get to keep the former Soviet Republics as part of their sphere of influence, so long as they recognized the independence of those former republics. But instead we got very, very, very greedy. Not only did we make a play to gobble up the Republics into NATO as well, and push NATO within a few hundred miles of Moscow, but we encouraged pro-western gangsters to operate inside Russia itself, loot the state, and ship the proceeds abroad.
The Cold War generation in the US cannot die fast enough for my taste. They are cluelessly attached to a world well dead. And it is clear that the embarrassments of the Iraq War did nothing to displace the younger generation of Beinartian and Truman Democratic expansionists and their “Good Fight” school and Liberal Jingoism , lead by their older godfathers Albright, Holbrooke and Podesta. They appear by now to have thoroughly captured the Obama campaign as well. And Matt appears once again to have fallen under their sorry influence. Well, I am formally checking myself out of their coalition.
400,000 innocent souls in Iraq weren’t enough. These stupid fanatical fucks aren’t going to be defeated until they succeed in killing hundreds of millions of people.
September 8th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
While they’re in the neighborhood, they should stop by Cuba and drill for oil.
September 8th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
I guess, the best the U.S. can do is just to ignore this. Putin, it has to be said once again, is not Hitler. He will never do something that damages vital American interests and would force Washington to retalliate in earnest. Totally dependent on energy exports as the Russians are, nothing could be less in their interest as creating a real crisis that would push the global economy into a serious recession.
This is nothing but show, aimed at giving the Russians back home something to feel strong and important about, so that they do not have to face the reallity, that they just do not have the economic base to be a real challanger to Americas global position . And nowadays, the easiest thing to do this is drawing the US in some verbal pissing-contest. Same with Chavez. There is nothing these guys crave more for than Uncle Sam’s attention. The wisest thing to do is not to give them any.
September 8th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Cheney’s coordinating this from Georgia.
September 8th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
“It’s a bit hard to see what kind of benefit the Russians are expecting to see from a stunt like this…”
Not hard at all – the Russian leaders are expecting the same kind of benefit that US leaders get domestically by saber rattling and jingoism.
September 8th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
They should send ships out by Alaska’s way so that Sarah Palin can show her commander-in-chief chops and order the National Guard to do something.
September 8th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
This is one of those situations when I’m VERY glad that John McCain isn’t in the White House. Although I can’t say I’m totally comfortable with Bush there anymore either, at least W will try some diplomacy before rushing headlong into the belligerant rhetoric that we’ve come to expect from McCain.
Only Russia and Venezuela know what they hope to accomplish with this act, and while it’s probably not a good thing for us, I’m at least grateful that John McCain isn’t handling the situation!
September 8th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Um, Dan, the State and Defense Departments are still run by Republicans. If you’ll just wait a few months or so, you’ll be able to blame Executive Branch missteps on Democrats, but for now, I’ll just say that I feel honored you chose to grace us with your preview.
September 8th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Re Vivisfugue’s comment “Um, Dan, the State and Defense Departments are still run by Republicans. If you’ll just wait a few months or so, you’ll be able to blame Executive Branch missteps on Democrats, but for now, I’ll just say that I feel honored you chose to grace us with your preview.”
————-
Er..Dan has a point. The last time I checked, there were a number of Democratic Senators who approved the attack on Iraq. I seem to recall damm few who strongly tried to oppose it, other than Robert Byrd and Bob Graham.
I also recall a fair number of so-called Democratic “intellectuals” who thought invading Iraq was a good idea in 2002.
September 9th, 2008 at 3:57 am
It’s actually, I think, a bit of genius on Putin’s part. I’m sure the Russians have been exhausted by America’s continual crowing about having “brought down the Soviet Union,” by Reagan’s strategic master plan of economically breaking the country by over-spending on arms. The tables are now reversed. It’s America that is economically tottering, with an exhausted army, while Russia sits atop its petrol euros. What better way to “finish” America off than to start a few brush fires in its backyard, and watch the Bushites over-react by throwing more money and resources away. 1 billion for Georgia AND taking on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae? Putin is no fool. The US’s days as a superpower are being numbered.
September 9th, 2008 at 7:08 am
[...]
I’m not that sure about the latter, and, anyway, the assumption that Russia is on its way to surpass the US as a global power is nonsense. Economically and (to a lesser extent) militarily, Russia is and for the foreseeable future will remain a dwarf in comparison to the US, the current troubles in America and Russias carbon-boom notwithstanding. The underlying facts are unambigious: Russia has a population of 150 million, faces a severe demographic crisis due to low birthrates and a comparibly low life expectancy, borders the highly unstable regions middle east and central asia while encompassing ethnic minorities with ties to these regions which could cause huge trouble (and have already in the past), and its economy is completely dependend on exporting carbons and minerals and importing technology. The US, meanwhile, has a strongly growing population of over 300 million, and is still on top of economic and technological innovation.
For the US, Russia is no match.
September 10th, 2008 at 4:58 am
Patrick, nowhere was I making the case for Russia surpassing the US on any level. I’m quite aware of Russia’s problems. But it is impossible not to see that the US has overextended itself both militarily and economically, and has recklessly left itself vulnerable. Will Russia suddenly overtake the US as far as wealth, power and population? Not for some decades, if ever. Can Putin put one more knife into a struggling brute to cause more pain? Absolutely.
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