Department of Overlapping Crises
I was kind of wondering if we were really going to have a foreign policy debate on Friday with financial market stuff sucking up all the news coverage, but then along comes the DPRK banning inspectors from their nuclear plant and signaling an intention to start reprocessing spent fuel rods and making weapons-grade nuclear material. Not good.
This reminds me that back when Kim Jong-Il first took ill, I said maybe we should take a glass half full attitude and hope things change for the better. On the contrary, whoever’s making decisions in North Korea seems to come from the “crazy and belligerent” faction. This sort of thing also really makes you wonder about the quality of information that DPRK decision-makers have access to. You oftentimes get the sense that key U.S. policymakers don’t really understand the countries they’re dealing with. But just try to imagine what a weak grasp of the outside world some high-ranking North Korean general is likely to have. It makes the situation dangerous unpredictable.
27 Responses to “Department of Overlapping Crises”
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September 24th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
But just try to imagine what a weak grasp of the outside world some high-ranking North Korean general is likely to have. It makes the situation dangerous unpredictable.
You think they don’t know that Bush is an unpopular lame duck? They know we can’t start another war. They don’t care about starving their own people. What else do they need to know? They know the important things, to them.
September 24th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Do I smell an October surprise like the 2006 nuke experiment in DPRK?
Il’s illness may have opened the path for the mysterious Asian Bush enablers (China?) to produce another MKorean shocker to make the public wet their Depends so they vote for Johnny McWar.
Tin foil hats a tinglin’!
September 24th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
But just try to imagine what a weak grasp of the outside world some high-ranking North Korean general is likely to have.
Ill-informed? Nah, I’d say he’s a maverick. A gambler with high stakes.
There might be a way for U.S. to ride out the MOAB without a scratch. It’s the maverick way.
September 24th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Are you claiming ranking DPRK members knowledge of foreign affairs is Palin-esque? But they can actually see South Korea from their houses. Japan too.
http://thesebastards.blogspot.com/
September 24th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
I remember when the Iron Curtain fell. The people of Albania were stunned to find out that they were not actually the most prosperous nation in the world. It was an impression that pervaded even into the lower levels of the power structure.
North Korea is significantly more isolated than Albania ever was, and exerts even more control over its apparatchiks.
It would not surprise me at all to find that their intelligence people were restricted to extracting information from approved sources which were generated by their own propaganda people.
September 24th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
My guess is that this is just theater, setting up for new negotiations with the next administration, to get new boatloads of food and fuel.
They could wait until next year, but then the restart would be seen as a diplomatic insult to the next administration. By shafting Bush, they can restart and reset their bargaining position without dealing a personal affront to the new admin, which ought to make negotiations a bit easier.
September 24th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
The new developments in Pakistan weren’t enough to support a foreign policy debate? How much more crisis do you want?
September 24th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
But just try to imagine what a weak grasp of the outside world some high-ranking North Korean general is likely to have. It makes the situation dangerous unpredictable.
Think of the tin ears for outside opinion the Chinese demonstrated during the totalitrian Olympics, and think of how much more open and wordly they are than North Korea.
September 24th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
This seems to imply that Kim Jong-il isn’t actually making the decisions. From what I’ve heard and read, most analysts, even in South Korea, where they clearly keep a close eye on the situation, think that Kim is still fully in charge and that there are no signs to the contrary.
September 24th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Why the fuck didn’t the Bushies “delist” North Korea as they were supposed to instead of throwing additional obstacles in the way (uranium enrichment and Syrian “proliferation” - for neither of which there is any real evidence). It’s not as if the North Koreans have been involved in any terrorism in the recent past.
September 24th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
Blowback: That was the cause of the “crisis” in the first place. Bush unilaterally reneged on the Agreed Framework (in fact, so did Clinton). So it’s no surprise that he’s done it again, and that the Norks reacted as expected.
I’d also agree that it was done - just like the Georgia “crisis” and the constant war mongering over Iran and now the unnecessary cross-border incursions into Pakistan - to give McCain a boost by emphasizing foreign policy issues over economic ones.
Obama wins on economic issues, not foreign policy - because there isn’t a penny’s worth of difference between Obama and McCain on foreign policy. If the election comes down to foreign policy issues, Obama the “uppity Negro” loses to McCain the “war hero”. But if Obama can keep the emphasis on the economy, he could win.
And THAT is why Bush is planning an “October Surprise” in foreign policy - to give McCain that four to ten point boost needed to beat Obama at the last minute on election day. (That, and a little vote fraud in close states.)
Whether that “Surprise” will be an attack on Iran, or some sort of major operation in Pakistan, or what, is unclear. I still think Iran is the most likely source, but anything is possible.
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