Change Math
I’ve gotten something like six million copies of an Obama campaign statement saying, among other things, “If Governor Palin and John McCain want to define ‘change’ as voting with George Bush 90% of the time, that’s their choice, but we don’t think the American people are ready to take a 10% chance on change.”
This was a line out of the Democratic Convention, too, but it doesn’t make sense. They’re construing “change” as a binary quality and saying that the Bush-McCain overlap means that change is unlikely to occur. But this is a very strange interpretation of the voting statistic. The normal way of construing it would be that Bush and McCain agree about a lot of stuff, so McCain’s brand of change is going to be small-scale incremental change. But the Obama campaign is interpreting it as meaning that there’s a 90 percent chance of things staying exact the same, along with a 10 percent chance of things changing dramatically, as if a McCain administration is going to set its course at random.
54 Responses to “Change Math”
Register
RSSLogin
Topic Cloud
ArchivesBlog RollAbout Matt YglesiasContact Me
Donate
September 4th, 2008 at 12:25 am
Well, McCain IS a gambler.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:25 am
It’s a soundbite. It’s not meant to mean anything.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:26 am
I think it’s being used like weather predictions, say, a 10% chance of precipitation. Since they don’t specify “change”, you would analogously assume precipitation would be ordinary levels of rain or snow, but technically “precipitation” might include rains such that no eyes had seen before.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:26 am
as if a McCain administration is going to set its course at random.
Do you think he won’t? He’s completely changed himself and his positions for the Primary and election, so the John McCain we’re seeing now is a completely artificial construction. Do we really have any firm idea of what he’ll do (domestically at least) as president? I don’t say that in hope, but in terror.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:27 am
You’re definitely right in a technical sense, Matt, but I think the sound bite makes the point well and is not deceptive or misleading, so it passes the test, I’d say. The point is that McCain says he’ll bring change, but 90% of the time he votes with Bush, so what are the odds that he’s really telling the truth about bringing change? The 10% just concretizes it as a low number, without having to say, “McCain is probably lying to you.”
September 4th, 2008 at 12:27 am
Maybe that’s the idea that the Obama campaign is trying to convey – that McCain acts without much thought or rational decision, and that he can’t be trusted to lead the country or make change that’s needed.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:28 am
Given the way McCain selected Palin to be his running mate, “at random” doesn’t seem too far off from the way he would make policy decisions.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:28 am
Guys, please don’t take this post seriously. Matt is just making fun of his own geekiness here.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:29 am
His rise is remarkable in its own right – it’s the kind of thing that could happen only in America. [laughter]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZ_-7rv-1gw
Why is this funny? What exactly is it about the nomination of Barack Obama that makes “only in America” a laugh line? I’d really like to know.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:30 am
It’s a rather weak line, sort of vague and in need of parsing. It doesn’t say the truth: “John McCain is a dangerous hothead who, when he bothers to think about economics, thinks Bush is just fine.”
September 4th, 2008 at 12:33 am
Just leaving the friendly confines of my google reader to note that you’re a big nerd.
Also, this post made me think of the following quote from Beavis (of “n’ Butthead) [imitating Andy Rooney]: “Why do they call it TAKING a dump when you’re actually LEAVING a dump?”
September 4th, 2008 at 12:33 am
Are you drinking or toking down there, Matt?
September 4th, 2008 at 12:35 am
Actually, it’s true if McCain only gets to make one decision.
Which would be fine by me.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:35 am
Are you high?
September 4th, 2008 at 12:35 am
Does this qualify as a “shrill” post?
September 4th, 2008 at 12:40 am
This is why you do analysis (sort of), Matt, and not political messaging.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:41 am
Do you remember a guy named James Fallows at the Atlantic, Matt? Did you ever notice that when he doesn’t have something to say, he doesn’t say anything?
September 4th, 2008 at 12:42 am
You’re reading into this a bit too literally, Matt. But for the amount of time you’ve spent listening to republicans over the last few days so I’d imagine your brain is pretty fried.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:48 am
Back to the speech, I’m curious about which route Obama/Biden will take. Will the gloves come off, now that she’s shown herself to be nothing but another mouthpiece for the Big Lie Machine? I think it’d be effective if they point out that not only are the policies are the same, but so are the politics (I mean, a Bush speechwriter wrote that speech!!!), and use the knock against community organizers to argue that the Republicans don’t care about what happens in Small Town, USA.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:48 am
I was waiting for someone to say this. It’s a confusing line that should be dropped. It makes it sound like there’s a chance, albeit a small chance, that McCain can deliver real change for working Americans.
I prefer the following line:
“McCain and Palin’s entire domestic policy is one huge bridge to nowhere. No, It’s not connected to an island. Heck, it’s not even connected to reality. George Bush started building this bridge 8 years ago, and it’s a project we simply cannot afford to complete.”
September 4th, 2008 at 12:49 am
I gotta agree with Matt’s original post, it sounds dumb. Like the line in the ad about “anyone making under $5 million is middle class”
maybe it’s just “my gut,” but that’s how John McCain makes decisions, so by god I’m going with it.
The press release should have said “She sounded like she was accepting an Oscar for Lifetime Achievement.” Talk about JUST WORDS—I guess in reality the sarcasm wouldn’t play well, you’d just end up sounding like Giuliani
September 4th, 2008 at 12:54 am
This isn’t an argument for serious people. Its for voters who only slightly pay attention to politics and still think McCain is the guy he was three years ago.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:04 am
Matt:
I agree that it does not necessarily pass the statistical/logic test. But the main point is made, and that is that the policies of the last 8 years are, for all intents and purposes, likely to remain for the next 4 years at least.
On the other hand, maybe there is something to what Obama’s campaign is saying. I mean, McCain is so reckless and it appears, even more conservative Bush, that in fact, maybe there is a 90% chance he will remain in lockstep with Bush for the most part (how you would normally construe the statistical meaning of the 90/10% voting record) and a 10% chance McCain really will go batsh*t crazy.
Lets just say that with McCain in office, the whole end of the times in 2012 (Mayan Calendar ends in 2012) seems a whole lot more prescient.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:10 am
I hope Hillary supporters were watching Giuliani sneer at her.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:14 am
Most people don’t understand the math well enough, or are going to think about it enough to parse it. It works because it is simple yet effectively undermines McCain’s casting himself as representing a change.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:15 am
OK here is your mathematically correct statement. If you think George Bush has been right 90% of the time, vote for John McCain.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:15 am
Palin boldly expressed how the McCain ticket would vigorously defend this nation FROM change.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:22 am
God, the 10 percent line is not nearly good enough to keep trotting out. It worked in Obama’s speech it sounds Kerry campaignesque in its impotence as a weapon.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:29 am
What percentage of the time has Obama voted with Bush? I think it’s something like 40%. So I guess that Obama offers only a 60% chance of change.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:42 am
The problem isn’t really that it isn’t a logical argument, taken literally. It’s that it sounds so far-fetched, the very idea that you need to make $5 million/year t be rich, that unless people heard the actual McCain answer it is implausible.
SImply put, McCain was so out of touch that the average reaction is, “My, this must be a caricature.”
This is all hilarious, in a way that doesn’t make me laugh. Presenting the most extreme & negative interpretation of these comments is too at odds with the C.O on McCain, hence it doesn’t ring true. It lacks, “truthiness.”
September 4th, 2008 at 1:58 am
It’s a slogan, used to underscore McCain’s policy similarities to our current misfortune-in-chief. I think it’s not meant to be read as an analysis of the meaning of change, per se.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:59 am
There’s a 10 percent chance that McCain will set a course for adventure, your mind on a new romance.
The McCain Team:
http://a.abcnews.com/images/GMA/abc_loveboat_070926_ssh.jpg
September 4th, 2008 at 2:42 am
You’re overanalyzing it. It’s pitch-perfect.
September 4th, 2008 at 2:47 am
Wow, McCain does look an older, crankier Captain Stubbing. And Palin is obviously a less experienced Julie McCoy. (She was “cruise director” — a position with substantially more responsibility than mayor of Wasilla. Plus, the Love Boat sailed in oceans that are close to foreign countries. And they often even stopped to refuel in those countries — Fuck. She is George Marshall and George Kennan rolled into one on the Palin scale of foreign policy experience!)
September 4th, 2008 at 2:50 am
And, yes, we have to classify this as an “only when high” post. God, policy wonks high is not a pretty sight.
September 4th, 2008 at 4:27 am
The math doesn’t matter, Matt. I don’t think it’s an effective response, but the Obama campaign had to say something tonight. Attacking Palin in her shining moment would be uncool, so they’re reminding us that real issues exist, which is very cool.
I’d be very worried about the talking heads falling all over themselves to praise Palin’s speech, except that they’ve been wrong so many times in this election it’s hard to worry about them.
When the convention is over Obama will need an effective response to Palin, and a way to get the country’s conversation back on track. If he can keep this election about the future and the issues then Palin can spend her life as the way-far-right conservative icon that her views should make her. He’s pulled a genie out of his hat whenever he needed to so far, and I trust he’ll do it again.
September 4th, 2008 at 4:28 am
This is what I THINK they meant:
Bush and McCain agree on 90% of legislative proposals.
So McCain will only change the 10% he disagrees with.
But the chances that we agree with those propositions in the 10%, may be more or less than 10%. The American people may be in 100% agreement with those changes.
If Obama said “…but we don’t think the American people are ready to take a chance on 10% change” it would sound more logical.
September 4th, 2008 at 5:46 am
Once again, Matthew, why are you doing McCain’s work for him?
September 4th, 2008 at 6:46 am
I am not sure what your point is. Everything changes at some level (even the Bush of today is not the Bush of 7 years ago). But, clearly, if you expect
McCain to be substantially different in governing philosophy than Bush, the evidence is against you, and this sound bite is a pithy way of expressing that.
September 4th, 2008 at 7:31 am
George Bush was a governor for 8 years and supposedly had “executive experience” and look where that got us! Maybe that should not be such a criteria for one to be a President and must look to other attributes and characteristics like intelligence, wisdom, judgment and temperment in picking our presidents. The ability to put people first before party and the ability to unite Americans and not divide us.
For Instance, McCain is a big gambler, loves the gaming tables at Las Vegas, which media was well aware of and are just now coming out with after his gamble of the Sarah Palin pick. Is this not a characteristic which should have been made known beforehand. I think the American people have the right to know that McCain has this Vice and whether they want a President who does not have the fortitude to withstand the gaming table!
GOP through the unveiling of Sarah Palin are trying to sell us a bill of goods and mislead the public like they did about the Iraq War! There were no WMD’s and Sarah Palin is not the Reformer and the Experienced Leader they are trying to portray her — sell her as.
Franklin Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Abraham Lincoln were not Governors and therefore allegedly had no Executive Experience and yet they were our greatest Presidents!
Republicans belittle community organizers which is a public servant because they do not believe in serving the Public only the wealthy. To be a President means to be the greatest of Public Servants.
GOP Family Values? Yet for 10 years they voted no to the minimum wage for working mothers and families and only after Democrats gained control was minimum wage passed! Yet every year they make sure they get their Raises!
GOP Family Values: Yet they will not approve an affordable health care plan for all Americans, yet they have great health care for themselves. That would be too much like a government give away but its ok for them to get the government give away.
GOP loves to talk about putting country first, prosperity, the flag and in Reality they do nothing but talk and leave our the action. They have fooled Americans for years with talk and no action on behalf of the people. For years under GOP rule the country has declined in economic promise for the everyday family, college education has soared and unreachable for many young people who are intelligent and eager to learn. GOP knows that an intelligent public means they cannot get away with their lies for a higher education trains one to “think for themselves”. They do not want people to think but to follow them blindly. Like sheep going to the slaughter! We must not let them sell us this empty bill of goods again.
It is time for us, those who care deeply for this country, to Expose the Myth, the lie and the deceptions of the Republican party. Pull the curtain back on the Wizard of Oz and expose them for what they are frauds and pretenders, who really have no answers at all.
For instance I heard one GOP opertive say after Sarah Palin’s speech “When we need leaders the most they step up? Really they read a prepared speech on a teleprompter in front of an adoring crowd and this makes one a leader? We Americans have to stop letting these GOP operatives sell us these empty bill of goods and fill our heads with lies which are not based on reality or truth! We must see clearly the path ahead and not be lead down the wrong path, like Iraq where Bin Ladin does not live. We are at a fork in the road. Can you see the two paths — one keeping you on the same path of illusion, fear, war — the other to increased freedom and peace, prosperity and unity. We must choose correctly!
Body
George Bush was a governor for 8 years and supposedly had “executive experience” and look where that got us! Maybe that should not be such a criteria for one to be a President and must look to other attributes and characteristics like intelligence, wisdom, judgment and temperment in picking our presidents. The ability to put people first before party and the ability to unite Americans and not divide us.
For Instance, McCain is a big gambler, loves the gaming tables at Las Vegas, which media was well aware of and are just now coming out with after his gamble of the Sarah Palin pick. Is this not a characteristic which should have been made known beforehand. I think the American people have the right to know that McCain has this Vice and whether they want a President who does not have the fortitude to withstand the gaming table!
GOP through the unveiling of Sarah Palin are trying to sell us a bill of goods and mislead the public like they did about the Iraq War! There were no WMD’s and Sarah Palin is not the Reformer and the Experienced Leader they are trying to portray her — sell her as.
Franklin Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Abraham Lincoln were not Governors and therefore allegedly had no Executive Experience and yet they were our greatest Presidents!
Republicans belittle community organizers which is a public servant because they do not believe in serving the Public only the wealthy. To be a President means to be the greatest of Public Servants.
GOP Family Values? Yet for 10 years they voted no to the minimum wage for working mothers and families and only after Democrats gained control was minimum wage passed! Yet every year they make sure they get their Raises!
GOP Family Values: Yet they will not approve an affordable health care plan for all Americans, yet they have great health care for themselves. That would be too much like a government give away but its ok for them to get the government give away.
GOP loves to talk about putting country first, prosperity, the flag and in Reality they do nothing but talk and leave our the action. They have fooled Americans for years with talk and no action on behalf of the people. For years under GOP rule the country has declined in economic promise for the everyday family, college education has soared and unreachable for many young people who are intelligent and eager to learn. GOP knows that an intelligent public means they cannot get away with their lies for a higher education trains one to “think for themselves”. They do not want people to think but to follow them blindly. Like sheep going to the slaughter! We must not let them sell us this empty bill of goods again.
It is time for us, those who care deeply for this country, to Expose the Myth, the lie and the deceptions of the Republican party. Pull the curtain back on the Wizard of Oz and expose them for what they are frauds and pretenders, who really have no answers at all.
For instance I heard one GOP opertive say after Sarah Palin’s speech “When we need leaders the most they step up? Really they read a prepared speech on a teleprompter in front of an adoring crowd and this makes one a leader? We Americans have to stop letting these GOP operatives sell us these empty bill of goods and fill our heads with lies which are not based on reality or truth! We must see clearly the path ahead and not be lead down the wrong path, like Iraq where Bin Ladin does not live. We are at a fork in the road. Can you see the two paths — one keeping you on the same path of illusion, fear, war — the other to increased freedom and peace, prosperity and unity. We must choose correctly!
September 4th, 2008 at 7:36 am
there’s a “within the margin of error” joke in there somewhere, though it’s probably too muddled to make
September 4th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Stop using elitist math. Use reg’lar folk math.
September 4th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Love you, MY, and am grateful that you sat through the mudfest so that I didn’t have to. 90-10? Whatever. There’s a 0% chance that anyone in my reasonably-sized family will be voting for McPalin … unless some of us suffer psychotic breaks between now and November. Which we may.
My favorite Obama line remains “Enough!” That’s the new math in my house.
September 4th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Franklin Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Abraham Lincoln were not Governors and therefore allegedly had no Executive Experience and yet they were our greatest Presidents!
Franklin Roosevelt was too a Governor! John F. Kennedy was not one of our greatest Presidents! Actually he Was a Mediocre one!
March 1st, 2009 at 12:26 pm
viagra
Incredible site!
March 2nd, 2009 at 11:05 am
levitraVery interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
March 13th, 2009 at 6:58 am
I bookmarked this site. Thank you for good job!
March 14th, 2009 at 11:31 am
Incredible site!
xanax
March 17th, 2009 at 3:52 am
Great site. Good info
tramadol
March 22nd, 2009 at 8:08 am
tramadol
Incredible site!
April 3rd, 2009 at 6:49 am
It is the coolest site,keep so!
cheap brand pfizer viagra
April 8th, 2009 at 7:00 am
Incredible site!
viagra