Sep 29th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Bailout in Trouble
Right now, the bailout doesn’t have enough votes to pass. Predictably, the House GOP has double-crossed the Democrats and failed to deliver the votes they promised.
48 Responses to “Bailout in Trouble”
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September 29th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
therefore, we can blame the current 400-600 point drop in the DJIA on the GOP House members.
thanks guys!
September 29th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
I am shocked that the Democrats may not prove to have been able to count on the GOP to stand up to its word.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Might you now see a large group of Dems changing their votes so as not to be on the wrong side?
Will Bush, Pelosi, Boehner, Reid, McConnell summon Obama and McCain to DC to present a united front?
September 29th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Excellent news. With a little luck we’ll be able to use GOP intransigence to eventually get a much better bill, AND we’ll see a temporary worsening of economic conditions eminently blamable on the Republican brand. Filibuster-proof Democratic majority here we come!
September 29th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Good thing McCain suspended his campaign to lead the Republicans to an agreement. Someone please call him out on this!
September 29th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
So, how does McCain not suspend his campaign again at this point?
September 29th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Now we need to make it clear how dumb the House GOP members leading this “revolt” are and how dumb their “alternative plan” was/is.
I’m sure John McCain is also planning to “change his mind” and vote against ANY plan at the last minute, as part of the Bill Kristol all-crazy-drama-until-the-election idea, and Obama’s team should be prepared for it.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Normally, I’d suggest that Dems vote no as well and blame the GOP defectors for scotching the agreement.
But that seems risky and irresponsible in this instance, given the dire state of the credit markets.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Kent Brockman: Professor, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it’s time for our viewers to crack each other’s heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Professor: Yes I would, Kent.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
This isn’t going to the Senate if the House says no. All appropriations legislation has to originate in the House.
I agree with the first comment. If House Republicans are intransigent, then WH has no recourse except to go along with a bill that is more palatable to Dems.
And I am still agog over the so-called insurance provision. If it isn’t the stupidest thing to ever be proposed in a legislature, it comes close. It does nothing whatsoever to address the liquidity problem, indeed, it makes it worse, and it leaves taxpayers potentially on the hook for EVERYTHING, which is a lot more than $700 billion.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Don’t believe political crap – may be more fundamental reasons for market drop:
Today, from Nouriel Roubini:
FROM: http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
It is obvious that the current financial crisis is becoming more severe in spite of the Treasury rescue plan (or maybe because of it as this plan it totally flawed). The severe strains in financial markets (money markets, credit markets, stock markets, CDS and derivative markets) are becoming more severe rather than less severe in spite of the nuclear option (after the Fannie and Freddie $200 billion bazooka bailout failed to restore confidence) of a $700 billion package: interbank spreads are widening (TED spread, swap spreads, Libo-OIS spread) and are at level never seen before; credit spreads (such as junk bond yield spreads relative to Treasuries are widening to new peaks; short-term Treasury yields are going back to near zero levels as there is flight to safety; CDS spread for financial institutions are rising to extreme levels (Morgan Stanley ones at 1200 last week) as the ban on shorting of financial stock has moved the pressures on financial firms to the CDS market; and stock markets around the world have reacted very negatively to this rescue package (US market are down about 3% this morning at their opening).
September 29th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s erie prediction on our current economic crisis, written Feb, 08!
“When history tells the story of the subprime lending crisis and recounts its devastating effects on the lives of so many innocent homeowners, the Bush administration will not be judged favorably. The tale is still unfolding, but when the dust settles, it will be judged as a willing accomplice to the lenders who went to any lengths in their quest for profits. So willing, in fact, that it used the power of the federal government in an unprecedented assault on state legislatures, as well as on state attorneys general and anyone else on the side of consumers.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/13/AR2008021302783.html
(My take is that Lenders suckered average folks into mortgages which they could afford at first, then Lenders raised their monthly rate to an amount they could no longer afford! Because there were no Regulations or Oversight, those houses were then foreclosed on and then re-sold again to some other unsuspecting victim, until the whole deck of cards has collapsed. What is compelling, is that before the total collapse, CEO’s pay themselves millions, sometimes billions as compensation pay for the said collapse!)
For instance, “In 2007, Wall Street’s five biggest firms– Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley – paid a record $39 billion in bonuses to themselves.” From ABC’s Political Punch
September 29th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
I know the looming financial apocalypse is the big concern of the moment, but we may have also just seen one of America’s two major political parties kill itself.
Neocon intellectuals and evangelical Christian voters are not enough to sustain the Republicans. Without Wall Street money, the GOP as we know it cannot survive and if you were on Wall Street right now…would you ever give another dime to any Republican?
Mike
September 29th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s erie prediction
Yeah, but he liked to pay people to fuck him. What does he know?
September 29th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
I noticed Obama calling McCain a “gambler” which is a very smart strategy. Think about it – McCain’s admitted gambling habbit, McCain wanting a free market solution for privatizing social security, McCain as the “maverick”…etc.
What Obama is doing is very shrewdly replacing McCain’s self-identiied label of “maverick” with “gambler” when voters hear it.
This is hardball folks.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Lucy wants to know if you want to take another kick at that football.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Thank you Republicans.
The Democratic party has not been pressured yet to fall in line ideologically. But the left-wing echo chamber is becoming what the right wing echo chamber was in the 80s and 90s and will eventually whip the Democratic party into shape.
The Democratic Party is the group that would spinelessly vote to authorize the Iraq war that its core supporters opposed – and now with this and FISA, I’m convinced Obama would have voted for the war at the time. The Democratic party is, in its current form, a disgrace to liberalism and will be for at least a few years. The Democratic Party will become a principled party over hte next several elections but it is not there yet.
Now of course we will not see either Great Depression 2.0, or a cascade of events that will inexorably lead there over the next two months. That was all hysterical lying produced by the parties that would benefit from the above-price purchase of assets and echoed by suckers who admitted when they were honest that they didn’t understand specifically how this “crisis” was supposed to lead to some form of global catastrophe (a lot like Y2K).
If the problem is credit failing to reach organizations that aren’t in the banking industry, at least for now we’ll deal with that problem directly – by paying the minimum necessary to keep banks solvent enough to make loans.
When it is time to sit down and calmly come up with a long-term solution: 1) The banks themselves should pay for most if not all of the solution 2) The George W. Bush Executive Branch should be given the exact minimum possible discretionary spending power.
Politically, this keeps the economy in the headlines for a little longer, which is good for Obama. But Obama is going to be the last of the cowardly democrat presidents. By next time the left-wing will do a better job vetting and picking candidates.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
I liked the bailout, because I thought it was a nice way to help the public grab corporate assets for a good price. (Equity steak!)
Now that we’re not going there, I want to go to Sweden.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Cannot find the vote split. How far is the count from the 100 GOP congressional vote that the Dems wanted?
September 29th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Without Wall Street money, the GOP as we know it cannot survive and if you were on Wall Street right now…would you ever give another dime to any Republican?
This seems naive. Wall St clearly favors Republicans on policy. I doubt Republicans are seriously opposed to a bailout. But they are in the minority, which means the onus is on the Democrats to get it done, so it gives them cover to oppose it. And since reportedly congressfolk were getting calls opposing this by a rate of 300-1, they’re taking their opportunity to play populist heroes. Wall Street’s not unaware of this, and they’re going to get their bill eventually anyway, so I doubt we’ll see a major reapportionment of their money in the future.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Here’s vote split per yahoo finance:
” 2:00 pm : The current Emergency Economic Stabilization Act vote tally comes at 207 for the plan, 226 against, with one vote remaining. A total of 218 votes were needed to pass the vote. House members can still change their vote, and as a result the number of yes votes did tick a few points higher.
Democrats voted 141 for, 94 against. Republicans voted 66 for, 132 against.”
September 29th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
I’m torn – I think that the Republicans are substantively right, but I think that thier motives are evil, sick, and twisted. As per usual.
Is it permissible for us to start saying what we all know to be true – that the only good Republican is a dead Republican?
September 29th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
From CSPAN –> 140 Democrats & 65 Republicans voted “Aye”; 95 Democrats and 133 Republicans voted “Nay.”
September 29th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
What’s with all the Dems who bailed? Were they actually opposed, or was it a strategic move to sink bill once the GOP made it clear they weren’t playing ball?
September 29th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Why’d they double-cross, though? To get the Dems to vote aye so they could run against them on the bill in November?
September 29th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Bush can force Congress to stay in session.
There’s a lot more incumbent Democrats up for reelection –with Republicans challengers back in their district saying “LOOK at those Assholes! Send ME to Washington and I FIX that.”
And if Bush lets the Congress go home now, he will be remembered as the Last Republican President.
Which might appeal to him — little fucker has a warped sense of humor.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
TPM has a screen shot with the vote split on theri front page.
Democrats: 141/94
Republicans: 66/132
Not quite as one-sided as Matt indicated, but it’s clearly the Republicans who failed to come through with the votes.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
I must admit that I do not understand the GOP logic that holds that allowing the markets to collapse is the price of saving capitalism. I don’t know how familiar you all are with The Ricky Gervais Podcast, but it sounds a lot like the discussion of, “am I controlling my brain, or is my brain controlling me?”
It’s the SAME FUCKING THING!
September 29th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
1) Still time to Amend the Bailout Bill to add in the
“Don Williams $2 Trillion Income Surtax on the 3% Richest Motherfuckers” (TM)
2) Only 5 more shopping days till Christmas.
To follow up on my citation of Lenin on an earlier thread, The Purpose of Terror Is to Terrorize.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
24: I think the idea is that many Dems wanted a more liberal bill. If the conservatives wanted a middle road solution, they had to deliver some votes. So the obvious path now is to produce a bill satisfactory to the Dem base so that the Dems can produce a majority on their own. Potentially, Bush could veto that bill, but he would only have the House Republicans to blame. Of course, the Dems could always cave an approve a more Republican friendly bill, but with the current 140/90 split, it doesn’t seem like their is a lot of appetite on the Dem side to do that.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Thank you, LaFollette.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
“I must admit that I do not understand the GOP logic that holds that allowing the markets to collapse is the price of saving capitalism.”
Better dead than red, I guess? It’s best not to think too hard about GOP logic. There is no logic. These people don’t have the slightest fucking clue what they’re doing.
September 29th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Fox News has spent the last two days promoting the idea that McCain deserves credit for bringing the House Republicans along.
What does this say about his leadership skills? What does McCain have to say?
September 29th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
30: That’s what I’m thinking at this point. If the GOP is going to bail (hehe) the Dems might as well pass a bill more to their liking. Bush is probably desperate enough to sign anything that gets to his desk.
September 29th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
This smells bad for Obama, at least potentially.
Assume the GOP had offered up enough votes to pass the legislation. Would McCain have been able to take credit? Not likely. The media angle is that the deal was negotiated without much help from McCain. Any credit he tried to take would have been immediately discounted.
Now, with one “no” vote in the books, the Republican’s can get down to the political theater that they excel at. McCain rides into town, makes a few staged phone calls, the Republicans “suddenly” have a change of heart and, on a SECOND vote, the house passes the bill. The GOP hails McCain as the deal’s savior and the media slops it up. Darrell Issa will say something like “Although I stand by my statements this week, Senator McCain was able to change my mind. For the good of the Country, I decided to vote in favor of a bill that I have strong reservations about” etc, etc…..
Maybe I am way off base here, but I think the Dems are being played.
September 29th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Umm, I think Matt is being a clueless idiot. Had Pelosi managed to get 10 more Democratic votes, it would have passed. She only managed to get 60% of her own caucus. If there’s blame for not passing this bill, it lies with the majority. Democrats are the majority party – wake me when they start acting like one.
September 29th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
34: We’ll see what the Dems do. Very interesting now.
35: That’s what the Republicans could be planning. But I think it would be great for the Dems. McCain is losing this election no matter what he does. So if we get a strong Republican connection to whatever bill passes, the Dems don’t get blamed when the economy still takes a while to recover, but we can still blame the Republicans for generating the mess. Honestly, that looks like the best of both worlds to me.
September 29th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
This failure is probably exactly what McCain was trying to accomplish. He did a convincing act of trying to save the deal, and can now focus on spinning it’s failure as the result of Democratic pettiness.
http://theenlighteneddespot.wordpress.com/2008/09/29/bailout-fail-redux/
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