What Is Maximum Pressure?
Washington Times calls for the United States to exert “maximum pressure” on Russia in defense of Georgia. This means, what, exactly? Deploy troops? Threaten nuclear war? And then there’s Robert Kagan who, as you’ll recall, is considered the respectable neocon. Shockingly enough, he thinks the best way to understand this particular foreign policy crisis is through a Munich analogy!
The details of who did what to precipitate Russia’s war against Georgia are not very important. Do you recall the precise details of the Sudeten Crisis that led to Nazi Germany’s invasion of Czechoslovakia? Of course not, because that morally ambiguous dispute is rightly remembered as a minor part of a much bigger drama.
It seems to me that rather than specifically informing us of each and every time something happens in the world that reminds neocons of the Sudetenland crisis, maybe they should let us know on those rare occasions when a world event doesn’t spark a Munich analogy. That would be a dog bites man kind of story. Meanwhile, if we launch a war with Russia — which would seem to be the point of busting out the analogy — then how are we going to find the time to launch wars with Iran and China? And what about Syria?
UPDATE: And of course there’s Bill Kristol:
When the “civilized world” expostulated with Russia about Georgia in 1924, the Soviet regime was still weak. In Germany, Hitler was in jail. Only 16 years later, Britain stood virtually alone against a Nazi-Soviet axis. Is it not true today, as it was in the 1920s and ’30s, that delay and irresolution on the part of the democracies simply invite future threats and graver dangers?
Now of course Vladimir Putin really is a bad actor. And it should be said that as of today Russia seems to be going beyond anything that could be justified as a response to Georgia’s provocation in South Ossetia. But the habit that the Kristols of the world have of deploying this kind of rhetoric is infuriating. If Kristol really thinks we should go to war with Russia, he’s being crazy and irresponsible. If he doesn’t think that, then he has no business busting out these Munich analogies. Nowhere in his column does he propose a single concrete step with any meaningful chance of altering the situation — it’s all dedicated to mocking doves, but utterly lacking in viable alternatives.
116 Responses to “What Is Maximum Pressure?”
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August 11th, 2008 at 9:51 am
IF Georgia falls to Russia, then Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan’s oil exports to the West are blocked. Hence , they have to throw in with Russia. And sell oil to Beijing, which will desperately need it in the coming decades.
Wonder what the Turks are doing? I suspect the Russian Recon sats are taking a close look at certain airfields there and in Iraq.
August 11th, 2008 at 9:51 am
In fairness to Kagan, the Sudetenland analogy for South Ossetia kind of presents itself. Disputed affiliation with a sizeable population that has ethnic/national ties to the more powerful state…
One could in theory (I didn’t read the whole Kagan link so I don’t know if he did) point out the similarity without necessarily arguing for a US war with Russia.
August 11th, 2008 at 9:52 am
Washington Times calls for the United States to exert “maximum pressure” on Russia in defense of Georgia. This means, what, exactly? Deploy troops? Threaten nuclear war?
I don’t see how “maximum pressure” could mean anything other than nuking Moscow. What would exert more pressure than that?
August 11th, 2008 at 9:52 am
And where, exactly, would we find the troops for this war?
Oh yeah, deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Do you suppose that the Russians realize that we’ve tied our own hands, and by doing so, given them the freedom of action to engage in this sort of adventure?
Heckuva job, Georgie.
August 11th, 2008 at 9:55 am
Do you suppose that the Russians realize that we’ve tied our own hands, and by doing so, given them the freedom of action to engage in this sort of adventure?
What, because if we had a few thousand troops free we’d go fight a land war with Russia?
IF Georgia falls to Russia, then Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan’s oil exports to the West are blocked. Hence , they have to throw in with Russia. And sell oil to Beijing, which will desperately need it in the coming decades.
Is there a reason oil couldn’t be piped across Armenia and Turkey rather than across Georgia?
August 11th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Kagan has the right idea, let’s ignore all of the details of history.
South Ossetia is the Sudetenland. Wait, maybe Georgia is Afghanistan. Georgia is the Union, South Ossetia is the Confederacy, Russia is Great Britain (if in the counter-factual they had invaded the Union from Canada), and the United States is Russia (passively supporting but doing nothing).
Damn, I keep forgetting which details I shouldn’t worry about and which details are lessons humanity should never be allowed to forget.
I know, South Ossetia is Brittany during the Hundred Years War.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Remember, this is NOT just like Kosovo leaving Yugoslavia. South Ossetia must remain part of Georgia because …
The analogy to Nazis is wrong. Instead its just like Stalin’s attack on Finland!
August 11th, 2008 at 10:04 am
If anyone is wondering why Yglesias switched his web site’s affiliation, I think I have the answer after reading his first entries here: Thinkprogress appears to have been willing to spring for a copy editor!
August 11th, 2008 at 10:05 am
The news reports that Russia has bombed close to Chevron’s Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (the one that carries Caspian Oil to Turkey’s southwestern port ) are hilarious.
By the strangest coincidence, that huge pipeline was shut down on August 6 by sabotage –an explosion in Turkey — and is expected to be out of commission for 5 weeks.
I wonder if Putin dabbles in the futures market?
August 11th, 2008 at 10:08 am
The most appropriate analogy to Russia/Georgia is found in the United States own history.
How many tears are spilled now over America’s illegal war with Mexico over Texas?
http://rising-hegemon.blogspot.com/2008/08/our-hands-are-clean.html
August 11th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Re right’s question “Is there a reason oil couldn’t be piped across Armenia and Turkey rather than across Georgia?”
———-
Because if it is pumped across Turkey, the Armenians would blow up the pipeline in their territory just to fuck the Turks. And if it was piped across Armenia, the Turks would blow up the pipeline in their territory just to fuck the Armenians.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:12 am
The endearing spelling mistakes may be gone, but the look of the site is much less appealing. Who chose these fonts? Give me the Times.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:16 am
I am really anxious for Obama to find the zone between McCain’s belligerence and Bush’s impotence.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Too bad for the Georgians their leader apparently thought Putin was as impressed by Bush’s posturing as he was.
I’m sure Kagan believes this would never have happened if we had invaded Iran. But if he and anyone else thinks we ought to go to war with Russia, they ought to consider that invading Russia in the Fall tends to end badly. It’s not a lot of fun being stuck in Moscow and Petersburg when the snow starts.
The damage done by the Bush administration’s Mayberry Machiavellis was bad, but not nearly as disastrous as the damage done by their Mayberry Bismarks.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Is Kristol anything more than a one trick pony? His answer to everything is to bomb the shit(Can I say that here?) out of it. Talk about dumbing down the discourse. Then again, I am kinda curious what Fred Hiatt has to say about this. I wonder if Freddie was impressed by the stern lecture George gave to Putin over the weekend.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Welcome back Matt!
Great to see you blogging again.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Ah, you guys still don’t get it. The Neocons are going apeshit because the Caspian Sea oil wasn’t supposed to STOP at Turkey’s Ceyhan port.
It is supposed to be transhipped –via ISRAEL’s Ashkelon-Eliat pipeline — to the Red Sea for tanker shipment to USA and China. Avoid that nasty Iranian “Persian Gulf”.
Can you imagine the potential profits –and leverage — from having your hand around that carotid artery as Peak Oil hits?
August 11th, 2008 at 10:23 am
politicalfootball’s first entry here. A failed attempt to avoid the grammar/spelling trolls.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:24 am
I dunno, gregor, I like this site. The html buttons are convenient, and after posting my first comment, I’m impressed by the response time.
As for Kagan, I thought he almost managed to make it through a whole column without saying something howlingly stupid. Take this:
Now that’s oversimplified (Saakashvili’s closeness with the West was the result of his hostility to Russia as much as it was the cause), but this is pretty close to Yglesias’ own formulation on the topic - far from God and close to Russia.
Like I said, Kagan almost made it through a whole column without saying something silly, but then he unloaded this one:
Now that’s almost Krauthammerian in its lack of self-awareness.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Of course Russia’s response is “going beyond anything that could be justified as a response to Georgia’s provocation in South Ossetia.”
Their response is always over the top. Georgia seems to have intentionally provoked Russia. As a warning to anyone else that might feel like poking the bear in the ribs, they will destroy large swaths of Georgia, just as they did Chechenya. They are the original Shock and Awe’ers. This method is so effective, that I am truly shocked Georgia miscalculated this situation to this degree.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Irony to end Irony would be the US avoiding all out war with a very dangerous, paranoid, and militaristic Soviet Union, only to have Bush and his crew go to war with Russia.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Kagan: “The details of who did what to precipitate Russia’s war against Georgia are not very important.”
Whereas the details of who did what to precipate Israel’s 2006 war against Lebanon were part of a carefully orchestrated plot by the slavering Iranian Islamofascist hordes to take over the world!
Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:38 am
It seems to me that rather than specifically informing us of each and every time something happens in the world that reminds neocons of the Sudetenland crisis, maybe they should let us know on those rare occasions when a world event doesn’t spark a Munich analogy.
Perfect! Because they’d never say anything again…
August 11th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Why is Vladimir Putin such a bad actor? It seems to me he’s a prudent but ambitious world leader taking advantage of full coffers, a unified state apparatus, and the weakness of any power that might have offered opposition. What exactly do you have to do to be a bad actor rather than just “exactly what American policy makers should expect under the circumstances?”
August 11th, 2008 at 10:43 am
“The details of who did what to precipitate Russia’s war against Georgia are not very important.” An analogy there might be that it doesn’t matter whether, say, Hitler invaded the Sudetenland or vice versa. This kind of rhetoric is painfully silly and would be hard to fathom if it didn’t have so consistent a neocon history. Remember, say, that it didn’t really matter if Iraq had WMD or ties to Al Qaeda. What mattered is that we had to invade Iraq.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:56 am
I think a reasonable rhetorical response to the Washington Times is to excoriate them for encouraging nuclear war. They have, after all, used the phrase “maximum pressure”. Rather than bother to try to discern what this foggy phrase means, I think it’s reasonable to take the simplest explanation - they mean that the US should threaten Moscow with a nuclear strike.
That is, after all, what “maximum pressure” actually means. And if they Times were to say that is not what they mean, then they have to explain what they really do mean.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Kristol has an interesting idea.
Wouldn’t the easiest thing be just to keep the next Hitler in jail instead of letting him out?
August 11th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Translation of Maximum Pressure:
Pressure that (theoretically) falls short of war, but far exceeds the pressure exerted by the various wussies in the State Department (realist wussies), Democratic Party (appeasing wussies), and the Obama Campaign (posing maximum pressure but really appeasing wussies). In other words maximum pressure is that special, magic kind of pressure that will show Putin that WE MEAN BUSINESS! And thus he’ll instantly back down and behave just like we want. This is because history closely examined always proves that acting tougher, rather than pissing off someone with a large powerful military, will always force cowardly totalitarians to back down. Therefore our NATO overtures were less than maximum pressure because they didn’t work. Russia didn’t back down We should have spent these past few years exerting MAXIMUM PRESSURE on the Russians! Which, by definition, always works. People who are serious about foreign policy understand this concept. If you think MAXIMUM PRESSURE needs more explanation, it only proves that you are naive.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Here’s Haaretz’s story on how the Caspian Sea oil pipeline may go through Georgia but will hopefully END at Israel’s Red Sea port of Eliat — where USA and Chinese tankers will have to pull in and say “fill her up”.
See http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/945484.html
Any wonder why William Kristol and the other sock puppets for the Israel Lobby are going apeshit? There’s real money involved here. And a way to ensure perpetual US protection for Israel via oil dependency.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:10 am
tom wins the thread, IMHO.
I think we should we make up a set of pressure gauges with the words MAXIMUM PRESSURE to hand out to neocon editorialists at every opportunity.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:12 am
We should have spent these past few years exerting MAXIMUM PRESSURE on the Russians! Which, by definition, always works
To those of you who understand maximum pressure as nuke Moscow: this hits much closer to the mark. Maximum pressure is that set of actions which 1. brings about exactly the reactions on the part of its object that benefits the United States 2. is costless and 3. is never put into practice, thus remaining available to Op/Ed critics.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Hmmmm. I wonder why Chevron didn’t name the pipeline the Baku-Tbilisi-Israel Pipeline?
By the way, anyone heard from Bin Ladin lately? And what does Saudi Arabia think about this competitor?
Of course, IRAN argues that part of the Caspian Sea oil belongs to her. Russia makes the same argument.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Damm. I seem to have mislaid my SLC dog whistle.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:27 am
It should be mentioned that British Petroleum aka BP owns a share of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
In the good old days, BP was known as the Anglo-Iranian Oil company. It protected it’s oil concessions by conning the CIA into overthrowing the legally elected government of IRan and installing the oil dictator Shah Pahlavi. See CIA Officer Kermit Roosevelt’s First edition of “Countercoup” (pulled from US bookshelves ) or here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Petroleum#Activity_in_1909_-_1979
But just remember George W’s point: They hate us for our FREEDOM.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:31 am
Of course the really stupid thing about the Sudetenland analogy is that it is Hitler’s methods - the anti-semitism and reliance on state terror - that were the issue, not the goal of annexation. Most of the population of the Sudetenland DID want to be part of Germany and not part of Czechoslovakia, which, remember, in 1938 was still an artificial country cobbled together out of the ruins of the Austro-Hungarian empire, that had existed for all of 20 years as a nation state. The West likes to draw arbitrary lines in the sand and say “stop here.” So it’s fine for Georgia to leave the USSR, not fine for Ossetians to leave Georgia, fine for Ukrainians to leave Russia, not fine for Crimea to leave Ukraine, fine for Kosovar Albanians to secede from Serbia, not fine for Kosovar Serbs to secede from Kosovo, etc.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:31 am
Didn’t Goerge Bush look Putin in the eye and know he could do business with him? Or did he look in his heart? or was it his soul?
I also find it interesting that the details for why the Russia-Georgia problem started are considered not important.
Ever wonder what the German equivalent of the necons were saying to Hitler in 1937? — we’re morally superior; we have the right to go into this country to defend our interests; it’s for the better; the world will understand in the long run.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Now of course Vladimir Putin really is a bad actor.
Well I dunno. I thought he and W looked kind cute together shaking hands and making googoo eyes across the seats during the Olympics opening ceremonies the other night. Wasn’t that while the invasion was just getting underway? Hard to imagine Dear Leader being sucker punched like that by such a warm, personal friend whose eyes he had looked into and seen his soul etc. So there must be some other explanation than “Our president is an idiot.” Plus he couldn’t have spent all that time cuddling around with the beach volley ball chicks and all those other cute athletes over the last few days if there was really anything serious going on like Russia invading a former SSR neighbor. I mean, that would take a really feckless dimwitted presidink to do something like that and the press would be merciless you’d think. So it must not be a serious situation or anything.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Interesting comments but no answers. Much criticism but no suggestions. Oh, there was one, the person was it who said in the mid-1800s we wrongfully went to war with Mexico therefore we should be disabled from doing anything thereon.
This is serious situation because if Russian can gobble up Georgia, then Ukraine will be next. Already the Russian Foreign Minister said that Ukraine was behind Georgia’s forays into Ossetia. So it does seem to me that some type of action must be taken.
Matt criticises the idea of ‘maximum pressure’ but has no suggestion himself. Is it the province of the left to criticize but not offer solutions? Sometimes I think that is the case with these wisenhowers.
I suggest we do our best to avoid a military conflict with Russia. We can start putting pressure on it by looking at its financial and prestige interests and threaten them. Kick it out of the G-8 and things like that. Of course we will need Europe’s help, but it, like many of the commentators here, will be good with criticism but deficient in taking effective steps.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:55 am
The Washington Times and William Irvingson Kristol have a problem. This isn’t happening on the watch of the Bill Clinton or Barack Obama administrations; it’s happening with their guys in charge. Their guys don’t know what to do about this. Neither do the Washington Times or Kristol. Frankly, I don’t either, but they’re the ones who are screaming, not me.
August 11th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Kick it out of the G-8 and things like that.
You can’t. You could withdraw from the G-8 and make something else but once again it’s not going to happen!
August 11th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
i sometimes wonder why it seems those of us on the left seem so anathema to the mere threat of force upon other nations. Georgia is a western style democracy that has had an internal insurrection fueled as a direct result of Russian money and direct actions on the part or Russia (Russia being an authoritarian regime i might add). Why in gods name wouldn’t we leap to support Georgia? We can do an awful lot short of sending in troops. As long as Russia KNOWS nothing is stopping them, then why wouldn’t they continue to expand?
August 11th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Re Don Williams
It’s certainly good to have the blogs favorite paranoid back and in good fetter. We really missed him during June and July. Actually, Mr. Williams can make a decent case blaming Israel, if not Hiam Saban personally, for the current Russian invasion of Georgia as Israel has been selling arms to Georgia. In fact, a deal announced just last week was put on hold because of the current situation.
Relative to the proposed oil pipeline from Turkey to Israel, that may explain the current Turkish effort at being the intermediary between Syria and Israel. My hypothesis is that the Turks have concluded that a settlement on that front would allow the pipeline to go through Syria on its way to Haifa instead of under the sea from a Turkish port.
August 11th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
russia is just doing what the neocons say the US should do when we get poked in the ribs. you know bomb the isht out of everything, dont hold anything back, show everyone whos boss, pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business.
i have no idea why they would be complaining right now.
August 11th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Europe won’t be on board because they are too dependent on Russian energy supplies. Kicking them out of G-8 is stupid because we need their help on things like loose nukes and the Iranian nuclear program, which is more important to our national security than who controls South Ossetia. Considering how G-8 is supposed to be about the major economic powers managing the global economy and how Russia is a major economy, kicking Russia out of G-8 does more to hurt G-8 than Russia by making it unable to do anything useful without all of the actual major economies on board. As is, G-8 needs to have China and India on board as well, as well as Brazil sometime in the near future, to be truly effective.
A threat of force has to be credible to work. We don’t have the troops to send and we are not going to start bombing Russia with air strikes due to the danger of retaliation. As such, threatening Russia over this would be like threatening a bear stealing your honey with a BB gun while fighting off two more bears behind you. Russia cares about Georgia a lot more than we care about Georgia and they know it.
There are no real good guys in this conflict. Of course Putin isn’t. However, the Georgian president invaded South Ossetia, a de facto independent region for over a decade that doesn’t seem to want to be part of Georgia, and thus provoked the Russian response. Trying to put this in clear, WWII-style terms just shows the hobgoblins of little minds at work.
August 11th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
I think maximum pressure amounts to dropping our surplus copies of ‘Red Dawn’ on Georgia. This question remains: VHS or DVD?
August 11th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
I incline to the wisdom of Gary Brecher on these matters. Or Mark Ames.
And CJColucci’s right: the US and Europe have set fairly arbitrary distinctions on who gets to be an oppressed minority and who gets to be a bunch of whiny separatists. And now they’re a bit fucked.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Better yet, we could let Charlie Sheen and Patrick Swayze set up their own Wolverine! covert op school up in the Caucuses.
(PS: I’m ashamed that I know that much about that movie. I blame it on growing up in the Reagan era. Peter Scoblic could have had another chapter in US vs Them about bad 80s cold war movies inspired by the conservative movement.)
August 11th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
The elephant in the room is the one Kristol et all can never admit to; that certains parts of the globe, Caucauses, Ukraine, Central Asia, are part of Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, and doing anything within them without Moscow’s tacit approval was a basic strategic blunder. And that extending even the hint of NATO protection to these areas was a receipe for stark humuliation or Global War because it creates a big temptation on the part of the Moscow-resisting regime to punch way above its weight cause big daddy gonna cover our ass. There must be significant covert American involvement in Georgia for their frontline troops to honestly be muttering “where are the Americans”? There was an expectation of protection that is dangerous. It’s like Serbia in 1914 acting all brash and bold because Russia would cover its ass. In a way we are very very lucky that the US is overcommitted in Iraq and Afghanistan, that the current President has zero credibililty, and that Americas fianances are crap, because if all three of these conditions were not in place, you would have a US that for prestige reasons would at least consider military intervention. Thank God that won’t happen.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
“Now of course Vladimir Putin really is a bad actor.” (MY)
To Joe Lieberman & Co. he is. Because he’s no fan of Apartheid Israel. Because he stands in opposition to the neocons agenda of Greed and Domination. And, because he had the nerve to throw the Jewish billionaires who were raping Russia blind in jail or force them into exile. The civilized world has a lot more faith and regard for Putin than they do for any Western leader. He doesn’t have to be “good for the Jews” and bad for everyone else to earn their trust and gain their respect.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Kagan: “The details of who did what to precipitate Russia’s war against Georgia are not very important.”
Translation - “The details of who did what to precipitate Russia’s war against Georgia are, obviously, very important in talking about what’s going on in the region, but since those details contradict the line of crap I’m about to spin, I’m going to ignore them.”
Funny funny stuff.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Hey, Trevor. Just go and fuck yourself, okay? Thanks.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Gee, maybe if we weren’t so utterly dependent on oil imports, Putin wouldn’t have us quite so over a barrel. That silly Jimmy Carter in his cardigan, urging conservation and forcing higher CAFE standards…whatever happened to those initiatives? Oh, yeah–Ronald Reagan happened. Then a couple of oil men named Bush. The guy in between, Clinton, made a few half hearted stabs at a rational energy policy, but of course ExxonMobil’s whores in Congress took care of that But don’t worry. Offshore and ANWAR drilling should take care of everything.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Why in gods name wouldn’t we leap to support Georgia?
That would be all those 50-megaton nukes they’ve got, plus the ones we’ve got==Le Grand Kaboom. Next question?
August 11th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
I agree that invoking Czechoslovakia 1938 into the debate tends to mislead more than to illuminate. The South Ossetians were disaffected, but trading and intermarriage with their Georgian compatriots was proceeding along and there was no need to “resolve” the disagreeable situation by military means. Did John McCain’s national security adviser encourage rash moves by the Georgian president? His lobby shop was paid $900,000 in recent years, by Georgia.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Something’s been tickling the back of my mind for awhile, maybe someone can help me with it …
The Georgia/Russia conflict seems to have been building for awhile. Russia sticking its thumb in Georgia’s eye in a non-violent-but-highly-provocative-way, Georgia finally attempting to exert its manhood, but whoops! Russia wanted that to happen and so was massing troops on the border. But what’s a little puzzling is that no one in the Administration - say, someone thought of by Bush/Cheney as an expert regarding Russian/Soviet affairs and their whole world outlook, etc. - raised a red flag awhile ago. Something like “This conflict is going to happen in the next 3-6 months; here’s what we should do to prevent Russia from annexing the Sudetenland (so to speak)” and so forth.
It reminds me, somehow, of that time in 2001 (pre-9/11) when the various agencies (FBI, CIA, NSA?, etc.) each had pieces of the puzzle relative to what became 9/11, but there seemed to be no one tying it all together. (In the sense of getting the different agencies to share info, that is.) If there had been someone whose job responsibilities included overseeing issues relating to national security, and coordinating an integrated effort, that person might have had enough foresight and skill to prevent or at least minimize the damage done by al Qaeda. But I guess when Clinton dismantled the entire national security structure, he made it impossible for Bush to rebuild it in time.
Is there a common thread? It hardly seems likely that incompetence on that scale could happen twice. Any thoughts? Bueller?
Regarding “maximum pressure”: it’s obvious that we need to try to adhere to the Tufnel Doctrine. It stops short of nukes, but it would certainly amp up the pressure on Russia significantly.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Trevor -
You forgot to say “Juden raus!“
August 11th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Matt, if you read your comments, you’ll know I’m nothing of a neocon. But I too was thinking of Nazis in response to this kerfuffle, and the parallels–while not obviously instructive in the present case–seem clear enough not to be dismissed as the shadows neocons would find even at high noon. In both instances, a regime we don’t like (and with good reason, although in the case of Nazi Germany this dislike is unfortunately retrospective) is thwarting another country’s claims to legal sovereignty on the basis of ethnic similarities between the annexing country and the disputed land. That is why my thoughts turned to the Anschluss and the Sudetenland.
This, however, seems a case in which Nazi parallels are bound to corrupt thought. The Anschluss only seems unambiguously bad because we know the nature of Nazism and what was to follow. Putin, for all his faults, is not another Hitler, and today we don’t know the future like a historian knows the future when considering 1938. Liberals, I suppose, generally support the problematic concept a self-determination. I know I do. But I do so with an anti-imperialist framework and a historical knowledge that, since the French Revolution, nationalist movements and democracy promotion often go hand-in-hand. That isn’t the case now, and certainly wasn’t the case in 1938. Southern Ossetians will not be “freed” by Russian involvement, that much is clear. But Russia is not rearming at an astounding rate in violation to a major treaty that ended the largest conflict in history, at least the largest since the Napoleonic Wars at any rate, which is what Germany was doing under Hitler. Nor does Putin seem wedded to a religiously (and religiously violent) nationalism, as Hitler was. It is here that the historical analogy falls apart. With Kagan et al. seemingly eager for renewed tension between major powers, we’d be wise to remember Arthur Schlesinger’s words: “Santayana’s aphorism must be reversed: too often it is those who can remember the past who are condemned to repeat it.”
August 11th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
I was just noting to a friend how Russia seems about to perfectly execute the war that Israel tried and failed to prosecute against Hizbollah back in 2006. I wonder if Putin read the Knesset report on what went wrong.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
I was just noting to a friend how Russia seems about to perfectly execute the war that Israel tried and failed to prosecute against Hizbollah back in 2006. I wonder if Putin read the Knesset report on what went wrong.
Did the Georgians really fight back via the guerrilla style à la Hezbollah? I thought they just fought them head-on then withdrew.
If the Georgians do fight a guerrilla war, Russia will just pursue a scorched earth policy å la Chechnya and the Georgians know that.
I wonder if Iraq would have gone better if another dictator was installed and a scorched earth policy followed. Of course even if had, anti-war people would cry about the tactics.
Granted I think the Georgian leader was stupid for provoking Russia. We should just increase aid to Ukraine and the other democracies nearby.
Will Georgia become another Belarus? I hope not, but not much we can do.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
The Ruskies are just sowing how the application of Hama Rles works. Seems to be pretty effective.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Im not here to to justify any war, its obvious that nobody can really intervene here, not US, not NATO and UN is useless.
However, Georgia DID NOT start this. Follow the news leading up to the events ( writeen both in cyrillic and latin ), russians were messing around for several months around the border and already amassing forces. Border violations, shooting down drones and arming the separatists.
Russian propaganda campaign started on 3th, separatists in Ossetia got very active after that. Georgia tried ceasefire with separatists on 7th, which was ignored by them.
Where georgians made a mistake, is give in to provocations and roll in larger armed forces, which miraculuously, just hours later ( or sooner, tough to tell by now ) resulted in hundreds of russian tanks rolling across the border. Where did they come from all of a sudden, Novosibirsk ?
I would really like to hear an intelligence report on the events of 7-8th by a western agency that actually has some clue. Unfortunately it wont be forthcoming until its too late.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
“Hey, Trevor. Just go and fuck yourself, okay? Thanks.” (Tony J) “Trevor -You forgot to say “Juden raus!“” (SFW)
Yeah, the truth hurts. Putin IS held in higher esteem across the globe than Bush, Sarkozy, Merkel, Brown, or anyone else because he’s not encouraging or ennabling Apartheid Israel, because he (unlike Obama) isn’t afraid of the Zionist elite, because he doesn’t think you get a pass to shoot Palestinian children in the back for “sport”, or impoverish an entire country because you’re Jewish. Is he an angel? No. compared to the wicked and odious scrofula that Tony. J., SFW, and all the other asthmatic neocon toadies cheer on - he’s Christ Almighty.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
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August 11th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
“This method is so effective, that I am truly shocked Georgia miscalculated this situation to this degree.”
Because they’re either incompetent or baited/duped suckers. I vote option two.
Secret talks between Georgia and Russia immediately prior to the hostilities probably resulted in tacit approval or at least a seemingly clear signal that the Russians wouldn’t intervene. After the duped Georgians engaged, the Russians had their opportunity and invaded.
Similarly, CBS News ran its Bush National Guard docs by the White House prior to dissemination, and received no comment, indicating to the folks at CBS that the docs were genuine. Upon dissemination, the WH cronies pounced.
August 11th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Saakashvili is an American-educated power-hungry fool who has lost a lot of support and credibility since the “Rose Revolution.” He thought he could draw the US into a war that would keep him in power. He badly misjudged the Russian response. He’s been playing footsie with Emperor Jor Jee for years now about American military bases in his nation. And now Cheney is calling for more war and more blood. Is anyone still listening to that fuckhead?
American “advisors” have been in Georgia since 2002, and there is reason to believe that they cooperated with the Israelis to attack the people of South Ossetia, who want no part of Saakashvili or the Georgian state.
August 11th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
” And it should be said that as of today Russia seems to be going beyond anything that could be justified as a response to Georgia’s provocation in South Ossetia.”
I keep seeing variations on this theme in the blogs.
As of this morning, the Georgians were still shelling Tskhinvali.
Instead of going for an encirclement of Tskhinvali and a seizure of the Roki Tunnel, which is the logical strategy if you want to keep South Ossetia and the Ossetians in Georgia, the Georgians went for massive collateral damage and ethnic cleansing, leving the Roki Tunnel open and an avenue to drive the South Ossetians out of South Ossetia.
Last Friday, the Russian proposal for a ceasefire to the UN Security Council was shot down by Britian and the US on Georgia,s behalf, because it required that both sides renounce the use of arms in solving the dispute.
When the Bear got involved, the Georgians alternated between declaring victory, claiming they were withdrawing from South Ossetia and declaring a ceasfire, while Georgian troops were still in South Ossetia and still shelling and rocketing Tskhinvali and other South Ossetian towns.
There are still Georgian Forces fighting in South Ossetia as of today, although it appears that Russian Forces will have pushed them out and completed mopping up operations by Wednesday.
The Georgians histronically claimed that the Russians were attacking Gori, and Faux, CNN, ABC, AP et al, all confirmed this, but the reality, according to the only western media with actual reporters in Gori, (The Times and reuters) is that the Georgians abandoned the city in a panic to mere rumours of Russians,
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4509692.ece
BTW, the Grad Rockets, Helecopter Gunships, SU-25 Attack bombers and 155mm artillary shells that have been indiscriminately pounding Tskhinvali for 5 days now cae from Gori and positions around Gori.
IMHO, the Russians will have “gone beyond justified” when they turn Tbilisi into nother Grodny. So far, the Russians have been very restrained in their response, a restraint that we have never seen the US manage. Georgian TV is still on the air, phone lines, water systems, cell phones, Georgian Radio are all, still on the air.
This ain’t no Sock and Awe, unless your shock comes from seeing the Russian Army wage war surgically and your awe is based in how restrained the Russian response has been.
Exile on Line has a couple of very good posts on not only the War so Far, but the propaganda campaign that Georgia has engaged in.
http://exiledonline.com/
August 11th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
People who think Russia started this are off track. Georgia has been building up troops to attack Ossetia for some time now, apparently. All the while Saakashvilli, the “democratic” President, has been arresting his opposition party leaders and beating protesters in the streets.
As Justin Raimondo says, Saakashvilli is George Bush times 10:
The Russians have had enough of him. They might well be out for “regime change” in Georgia and frankly from what I’ve read in the last couple days (I’m not an expert on this area at all) they’re probably justified.
Then there’s the Israeli connection. Israeli has been supplying arms and equipment and training the Georgian military. As I’ve always said, the “root of all evil” is not Iran, but Israel - at least as far as malignant political influence in the world is concerned.
Who’s behind this? These articles tell you:
Did the U.S. Prep Georgia for War with Russia?
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/08/did-us-military.html
War in Georgia: The Israeli connection
For past seven years, Israeli companies have been helping Gerogian army to preparer for war against Russia through arms deals, training of infantry units and security advice
http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-3580136,00.html
August 12th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Do you all remember the Project for the New American Century? How America should swat down any potential challenges to her authority? Cheney and his neocons are going ape-shit because a country has dared to act in such a way as to not be intimidated by the neocon ideology. Cheney and his neo cons remind me of the story of the dog that chased a car barking furiously, but when it caught up to the car, the dog didn’t know what to do with it.
August 13th, 2008 at 6:53 am
“If Kristol really thinks we should go to war with Russia, he’s being crazy and irresponsible”.
Russia is once again using military force to conquer neighboring countries. If the U.S. allows this to happen in the 21st century, THAT would be really crazy. And really stupid.
August 13th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
If Georgia had the right to secede from the SOviet Union, then why the hell don’t the Ossetes have the right to secede from Georgia?
Georgia is part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Our intervention to put in power the genocidal scumbag Saakashvili was utterly shameful and Russia is well within their rights to teach him a lesson. Did you notice when Saakashvili compared himself to Beria? Putin deserves the thanks of the Russian people for standing up against parasitic capitalists and Western imperialism. Only a strong Russia can protect East Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia from the twin evils of Western imperialism and Islamic jihadism.
August 13th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
The strength of the Russian people, more than anything else, is that history and geography have taught them how to suffer and how to endure. The world is now entering an era of global resource shortages and horrendously rapid climate change in which generalized calamity, disaster, and shortage will become the general condition for all the world’s peoples. In such an environment, there is a good chance that the United States and Western Europe, accustomed as they are to wealth and comfort, will not be able to weather the storm particularly well, and will fall into severe internal strife. Russia, on the other hand, will weather this storm as she has weathered so many storms before, and will emerge as the great power of the new era.
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