Aug 21st, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Veep Picks
Veep Day is tomorrow, by all accounts. My against-the-grain prediction: Sebelius. What do you think?
109 Responses to “Veep Picks”
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August 21st, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Biden. Or, what would be really cool, the person Halperin’s floating: Lugar.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Someone who doesn’t mind playing attack dog with a sharp tongue and/or quick wit.
1. Biden
2. Clinton
outside pick (and my personal favorite): Brian Schweitzer. I’m not holding my breath on that one.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Not Sebelius. Probably Bayh.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:19 pm
I think it will be either Colbert or Galactus, but I voted for Kurt Russell. Wait, am I on the wrong blog?
August 21st, 2008 at 10:21 pm
I thought it was Saturday. My crazy hope is Clinton. If it is Sebelius then he hasn’t done enough to lay the goundwork. I would like that pick and I ultimately don’t like the whole only Clinton can be a woman veep. Still that would in sosme sense be a repudiation of Clinton especially if you didn’t smooth it over ahead of time. Sebelius would be good though, assuming she can debate.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:22 pm
But seriously, my educated guess would also be Sebelius. My left-field wet dream would be Powell.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:23 pm
…hehe, ya coates blog is thataway.
I vote Butters, I mean “BayhCurious”
(seriously though – Biden, but hoping the whole month was a farce and we’ll get somebody completely from left-field.)
August 21st, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Normally I hate “X wins the thread”-type comments (except when they’re about me), but I feel compelled to say that after laborlibert’s 10:19 remark, no further commentary is necessary.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:25 pm
1. Biden- cause he’s too good a pick to pass up
2. Sebelius- cause I feel like BO campaign loves surprises.
I feel a lot more confident in who it won’t be- Bayh or Kaine. Although all the talk about ’someone who will challenge me’ makes me feel like I could be completely, totally wrong, and he’s laying the groundwork for Bayh.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:28 pm
I have no idea and neither does anyone else on the planet besides Barack, Michelle, and probably the two Davids.
I do think that stretching this thing out, while super annoying, is a terrific tactic by the O campaign. McCain has been trying hard to fight the media buzz all week, especially with his Ohio rally story. But… its all about Obama.
As for my hopes… I want a surprise. I don’t care who, I just want to be floored when I get that text message (unless of course its Hillaliar and then I’ll probabaly break my iPhone in half!).
August 21st, 2008 at 10:29 pm
I’ll go with Evan Bayh.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Clinton
August 21st, 2008 at 10:30 pm
“Although all the talk about ’someone who will challenge me’ makes me feel like I could be completely, totally wrong, and he’s laying the groundwork for Bayh.”
Yeah–that’s why I think Bayh too. Not thrilled about it, but I’m not really thrilled about any of them except Biden. But would Biden rather by VP than chairman of foreign relations? Why?
August 21st, 2008 at 10:32 pm
That was my sense too but Eve Fairbanks’ report from Sebelius’ event in Iowa today seems to suggest not.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:32 pm
But what happened to the Richardson talk? Did he suffer some major scandal when I wasn’t paying attention?
And the “someone who disagrees with me” line could also be laying groundwork for Biden, given his pro-war vote and plans to spin it as a disagreement now resolved.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:34 pm
I really think Bayh is out. Obama’s poll numbers in Indiana continue to be weak, too weak for the favorite son effect to pick them up. And he just has no other upside–he’s too boring. I’ll just go with CW: I think it’s probably Biden.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:34 pm
None of the floated picks (Bayh, Kaine, Biden) make much sense to me, Matthew, so there’s a large neon sign in my brain going ‘BLOWN ELECTION’. I had thought BO was a better campaigner than that, so I have to hope for a surprise, but I have no good feel for what the surprise might be. So no surprise, one of the guys listed above.
Ugh.
I will put 20$ on Lieberman being McCain’s pick. Make it 50$.
max
['Please surprise me.']
August 21st, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Why does Obama insist on emphasizing that the person will push back if they disagree with Obama? Yes, it’s a worthwhile distinction from the Bush administration, but of all the things to emphasize right before the announcement, why that?
Because it’s Biden or Bayh. Obama is making a virtue out of either Biden’s willingness to say whatever pops into his head, or Bayh’s position on Iraq.
If it were Sebelius or Kaine, he’d be emphasizing the importance of outside-the-beltway cred.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:38 pm
To Brian
It is VERY well-known (better known than Rielle Hunter was in January) that Richardson has MAJOR zipper problems and he was never in consideration for that very reason, even though noone would say anything of course.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:40 pm
My money’s on Biden, but Eli B.’s Powell suggestion is mindblowing. It’s the first time I’d heard that somehow, obvious as it seems. You talk about game-changers, I’m not sure picking Al Gore or the ghost of circa-2000 John McCain could top that.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:42 pm
All the picks except for Clark suck. Except for maybe Schweitzer.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:46 pm
probably Biden
maybe Clinton
hopefully not Kaine
outside chance of Clark
August 21st, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Sebelius’ family is crying right now because Matt picked her. Long live the Yglesias prediction curse!!!
I’m guessing Hillary.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:50 pm
What Ryan said. The way he’s laid the groundwork points to Bayh or Biden. Of those, Bayh seems more likely because (1) executive experience, (2) less of a washington insider, (3) potential swing state, (4) reinforces the ticket’s youth a la clinton/gore 92, (5) avoid’s biden’s propensity to put his foot in his mouth (and related history).
I’ll be happy with bayh, biden or sebelius though–they’re all fine choices. I don’t get the kaine option at all.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:53 pm
My heart yearns for Dodd, but my head (in the sand) says Schweitzer.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:57 pm
I’m with Jack, I think it’s Biden … but I love the idea of a big surprise such as Lugar or Powell.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:04 pm
I just made my prediction over at TPM Cafe and the Washington Note:
Geraldine Ferraro
She matches perfectly the description given by the clues Obama gave out today. It shoulw he is not afraid to be challenged by an independent thinker who has taken him on before. It shows a concern for working families. And she is the perfect “complement” to Obama: older vs. younger; female vs. male; white vs. black.
It would be a very exciting pick that would heal the division that has opened up in the party in a flash.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:05 pm
I think it’s Starbuck, but I guess it might be Roslin or even Adama. Couldn’t be Baltar—everyone’s expecting that already.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:05 pm
Biden or a big surprise. The latter would be Sebelius or Clinton.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:06 pm
It’s gotta be Jack Reed. That’s the only name left that makes sense.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:08 pm
I do think it’s gonna be a choice from left field, so I’m gonna go with either Clark or Clinton. Of course, I still have dreams of Al Gore, the SUPERVEEP.
Watch, though, it’ll be Biden, and we’ll all feel like we just threw down money on the Aussies to upset USA Basketball.
But whatever, just get me to November, please!
August 21st, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Clinton.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:13 pm
I also stick my fingers in my ears and say Schweitzer, Schweitzer, Schweitzer.
If I’m going to be all Beltway about it, then I think it’s Biden by a mile realistically, but if it’s not going to be Schweitzer, then I cross the fingers not in my ears for Sebelius.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:21 pm
My guess is Biden.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:21 pm
Colin Powell.
Gut feeling.
It’ll probably be someone a lot lamer though.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Not Sebelius. Why? ‘Cause the campaign would worry picking Sebelius would offend Clinton voter–unless Clinton explicitly declared she wasn’t interested in the slot well before the announcement. Clinton’s been the perfect surrogate for the last month , so she would have done that for them. She hasn’t. Therefore, not Sebelius.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Based on the medium lobster’s writeup, I’m kind of hoping that it isn’t Galactus.
In related news, how did fafblog get in the guardian?
August 21st, 2008 at 11:23 pm
I think it will be Biden, but I’d be pleased with Schweitzer or Jack Reed. Hell, I’m from RI — I’d be thrilled with Jack Reed as VP.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:23 pm
A few things to bear in mind here:
The campaign has not downplayed expectations, but has really hyped the decision and pending announcement. Assuming they know what they are doing, this has to be a “wow” pick, and somebody almost everyone has heard of. It can’t be some relative unknown who mnost Americans outside of the blogosphere don’t know anything about.
Bayh and Clark fit the criteria of being people who challenged Obama in the past; but neither is known as a big champion of working families. Bayh is mister DLC, and Clark is all foreign policy.
Kaine and Sebelius are too boring, given the hype surrounding the decsion. Richardson doesn’t “complement” Obama. They are too friendly and are seen as buddies.
Biden is a little closer. But again, he is Mr. Foreign Policy, and it sounds like Obama wants to go domestic, and make this election about working families and the economy.
Ferraro gets you everything Clinton does, including most of her supporters, without getting Bill Clinton in the deal. And she doesn’t require all of those people who voted against Clointon (and her war vote) to accept her.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:25 pm
1.) Marmaduke
2.) Dave Coulier
Either one of those two or the Amish as a collective.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:25 pm
Kodos. Can there be any other?
August 21st, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Bob Graham, come on Bob Graham.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Damn, my eyes are really going. I’ve really caught Yglesias Disease lately with all the typos.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Just please nobody boring. I’m getting used to non-boring Democratic candidates after 8 years of boring, and I’m praying for no boring this time.
Biden’s not boring. Schweitzer’s not boring. Bayh, Kaine and Sebelius are boring. Powell is, unfortunately, boring. Warner is boring. Ferraro isn’t boring but omigod you’ve got to be kidding me.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:36 pm
According to the Daily Kos, the Obama campaign might postpone the VP announcement to let the public further dwell on how rich McCain is.
I think the Obama campaign might be overestimating this whole “McCain Housing Crisis” thing.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:38 pm
Dean would be my pick. For some reasin he’s become invisible.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:47 pm
Kaine – or Sebelius. The man just doesn’t like the Washington normative. Though I think he needs Biden, and maybe he does to, so we’ll see.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Up until a few days ago I assumed it would be a no-drama pick like Biden or Bayh. But Nate Silver wrote something yesterday that really stuck in my head. Basically (and I’m kind of extrapolating from what Silver actually wrote) there are only two significant, non-BS reasons for not picking Clinton: 1) What to do about Bill? and 2) picking Clinton would cause the Republicans to go batshit negative and get the base to turn out in November when they might otherwise just go through the motions. Well, Team McCain has shown its hand, and the second problem, at least, has been obviated. It’s not like they’re going to go more negative. The first doesn’t really have any bearing on the election per se–they can worry about it in January. The CW has always been (for reasons I don’t really understand myself) that an Obama/Clinton ticket is a game-ender. Assuming that’s what the campaign’s internal polls are saying, and given that the general election liabilities unique to Clinton are no longer operative, and that there are no non-problematic alternatives, I can see it happening.
Plus as Dan Kervick noted at 11:23, Team Obama sure does seem to be acting like it’s going to be a “wow” pick. Or maybe they’ve decided to wait and see if the “how many houses” business really has legs. I wouldn’t want to do anything to push that off the front page just yet if I were them
August 21st, 2008 at 11:53 pm
If it isn’t Angelina Jolie or Summer Glau, I don’t give a shit.
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:07 am
Well as long as we’re repealing Article II here, Zhang Ziyi brings everything to the table that Summer Glau does, plus smooth relations with China.
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:08 am
I had not heard the name Brian Schweitzer so I looked him up. The more I read the more I liked. Obama did say:
Schweitzer has a Repub lieutenant governor. He had been supporting a green economy, education, is world travelled. This all really excites me. He’s the type of man I would like to see on Obama’s back.
I sincerely hope it is none of the names the media’s been floating. All are just more of the same SOS.
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:15 am
Intrade is calling it for Joe Biden, although in an ideal world, I would prefer someone like Jack Reed.
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:20 am
Debbie B,
The fact that you had to look up Brian Schweitzer to find out who he is seems to me to be the number one reason that he can’t be the guy. All of those text messages are going to go out to announce … Brian Schweitzer? Who?
Since there is a real dearth of exciting Democrats out there, and since the vice presidency is an overhyped job to begin with, I expected Obama to downplay the VP pick. But since they hav chosen to hype the pick so much, they need to go for a home run. And they need someone who will unify the convention, which right now is at risk of beiong fractious.
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:29 am
I am voting for greatest producer from Kazakhstan, Azamat Bagatov. Azamat!
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:35 am
Obviously, Obama should pick George Lucas so he stop ruining Star Wars beyond repair, although I’m afraid that ship may have sailed 9 years ago. The new flick is an abomination so awful that it must be cast into the pit of the mighty Sarlacc.
Or into the fires of Mt. Doom if you’re more into Lord of the Rings anyway.
Seriously, though, I think Kaine or Sebelius would be bad news as it reinforces Obama’s quantifiable inexperience (even knowing his experience, qualitatively speaking, is superior to McCain’s), and selecting Biden or Clinton (or perhaps even Kerry if he’s willing to assume the attack dog role) at least gives the media and the public someone they know.
I think picking a well-known VP is better than picking an unknown, and Biden and Clinton are both much more well known than any of the recently frequented names, except for maybe Bayh.
Obama-Bayh kind of has a regional Clinton-Gore-esque strength, but my sense is that Obama, despite bulking his centrist cred, wants to actually move the political mainstream leftward and I’m not sure Bayh is the right choice in that sense. Or maybe the only way to do that is to make a play for the center, and in that case Bayh makes more sense, but that didn’t exactly happen with Clinton and Gore (who was to the right of Clinton until recently).
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:37 am
Why I really really really don’t want it to be Biden, in a nutshell.
Quoth the Elitist Fuckhead:
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:40 am
Comment went bad for some reason. Here’s the Elitist [Bad Word for Sexual Intercourse]head:
And that’s as good a reason as any to dislike Biden as a pick. Besides getting Iraq totally wrong, being a hairplug Sunday Morning blowhard and the exact opposite of Change, I mean.
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:42 am
er…..
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:47 am
Dan Kervick Says:
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:20 am
Debbie B,
The fact that you had to look up Brian Schweitzer to find out who he is seems to me to be the number one reason that he can’t be the guy. All of those text messages are going to go out to announce … Brian Schweitzer? Who?…
BUT, everyone also might also make a frenzied effort to find more about him. Lots of press, lots of traction…especially since McInsane will play it very safe. The unknown vs. the known? I don’t know — you might be right. I really think Obama would achieve a gotca moment of moments if he pulls something like this off!
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:52 am
I’m kind of baffled that people are saying that Powell would be a “good pick” or a “dream pick.” Is this some different Powell who didn’t address the UN about WMDs? You want to see Obama lose his
Ferraro…sure, she still has a great political career (nothing like a failed VP candidate from 25 years ago), plus she managed to stay out of trouble during the primaries. Why not Jeremiah Wright?
I think Clinton is the single likeliest, but people who know more than me say Biden, so.
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:58 am
…meant to say, “lose his credibility on Iraq, Powell’s your guy.” Got too ANGRY to read it over.
August 22nd, 2008 at 1:24 am
I think it’s going to be Clinton. The parade of the Dull White Men has reminded people who kneejerked against her during the primary — with good reason — of her genuine political capabilities.
I’m with Incompetence Dodger here: the way that McCain has taken the Rovian option, there aren’t any reasons why Clinton would bring out more negatives than have already been brought out. McCain is intent upon tapping into the base that hates it some uppity negro, so the downside is limited. What I don’t like is that it blunts the inroads that the party could make, albeit at a risk, west of the Mississippi.
Schweitzer would be my ideal pick: look west, bring in someone with rural experience that’s tied to the wide open states — who speaks Arabic, of all things — and with a populist libertarian streak, to embrace the anti-Cheney. The man likes his guns and hates the PATRIOT Act. He’s criticised Obama’s healthcare proposals from the left. I want to see the electoral map changed in Colorado, Montana and possibly even the Dakotas, rather than dealing with the legacy Dems of West Virginia.
Still, the really interesting thing would be whether Obama’s choice has the potential to change McCain’s.
August 22nd, 2008 at 1:28 am
Biden is a media head fake.
Matt has a better chance than Hillary.
Lieberman has a better chance than Ferraro (where do you people come from?)
I’m thinking Sebelius, but who knows?
August 22nd, 2008 at 1:32 am
My sources still indicate M.R. Cyrus: http://lowtechtimes.com/2008/06/26/barack-obama-selects-running-mate/
August 22nd, 2008 at 1:49 am
I think it’ll be Wesley Clark because he’s fallen off the radar, but I hope it’s Joe Biden!
August 22nd, 2008 at 2:57 am
Please god, not Clinton. Dennis Kucinich, Admiral Fallon, Rachel Ray, or Rielle Hunter if you must, but not HRC.
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:18 am
Powell would create the best storylines coming out of the convention. He says “change,” he’s tough for Republicans to attack (and VERY tough for the media to attack), can speak convincingly on national security in a way almost no one can, he has a lot of advantages.
Look, the Iraq war was a mistake. I think so. Probably everyone reading Matt’s blog thinks so. But most Americans at the time didn’t think so. Many people NOW (perhaps a majority) think that the war itself wasn’t a necessarily bad idea, just poorly executed. All the people who care about being against the war from the start are already on the Obama-train. He would of course have to say, in his acceptance speech, that the Iraq war was a terrible mistake (no doubt he would do this, it’s what he honestly believes, given his attempt to talk Bush out of it before the invasion). But he would be able to ask: “I apologized for being wrong about the Iraq war, why can’t you, John?”
More importantly, Colin Powell is the only possible pick that plays defense against the “nightmare” pick for the GOP: David Petraeus. That scares the bejeezus out of me. That ticket would be very hard for Obama to stop. But Powell (in the minds of the MSM–the most important minds in a presidential election unfortunately) is about the only guy who can go toe to toe in respectability with Petraeus. He’s like black-Petraeus!
It’s the smartest possible pick. If he’s willing to run, Obama would be a fool not to jump at the chance.
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:18 am
Zombie Reagan
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:24 am
It’s not going to be Biden, unless Obama wants his announcement to be greeted with a week of 24×7 coverage of the “clean and articulate” comment.
It’s not going to be Hillary, unless Obama wants his announcement to be greeted with 3 months of 24×7 coverage of “Is Clinton derailing the campaign” gossip.
It’s not going to be the DLC insider’s great white no-hoper Bayh, unless Obama prefers “status quo” to “Change”.
Nor Kaine nor Sebelius, known only to political junkies, roped in for a 1% gain in a close state.
It will be Al Gore. Or Wes Clark.
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:28 am
“Powell” would be the dumbest, most moronic, stupidest possible pick. Except perhaps for “Sweeney”.
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:30 am
^^^
Obama/Sweeney 08!
That’s change we can get drunk with!
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:40 am
I know that many feel choosing a pro-war VP lessens Obama’s anti-war message. I think people are looking at it the wrong way. The public generally falls into three camps.
1) will always oppose the war in Iraq
2) will always support the war in Iraq
3) supported the war in Iraq but think it may have been
a mistake in retrospect
With few exceptions Obama will win the votes of group 1 and McCain will win the votes from group 2. If Iraq plays a large role in the election, it is voters in group 3 who matter. How does the VP help this group?
If the public accepts that Obama had great foresight then an anti-war VP is a reinforcing message and helps. Poll after poll suggests that the public believes McCain would do a better job with Iraq than Obama. That majority must include a majority of group 3 which implies they in fact DO NOT give him much credit for early stance on Iraq. They need to be convinced…. so who is the better vp choice for that?
Look at the psychology of the voters in group 3. These voters generally are unsure about Iraq. They lean toward the idea it was a bad decision but their opinion is still flexible. The fact that this group supported the war initially helps the McCain strategy enormously. People prefer to be proven correct and the Surge-Surge-Surge mantra plays into that feeling. McCain says people want to win with honor. What he means is that people hate to make a mistake and the Surge allows us to pretend the mistake never happened.
How does a pro-war VP help Obama overcome this problem?
First it sends the message that it is ok to have been wrong. I know this sounds stupid but I think it matters. Obama sends the message, war is sometimes acceptable, it was a tough call and good people got it wrong. By framing it this way, a difficult and complicated decision but ultimately the wrong one, Obama looks more insightful (gets the hard ones right) and more welcoming (getting it wrong was unfortunate but not malicious or stupid).
Second, a VP who initially supported the war in Iraq but now opposes it is in a unique position in terms of messaging. This VP choice can say over and over again
“I wish I had had the vision Barack Obama showed in opposing the war from the outset.”
“I was wrong about the war and have learned from my mistakes, why can’t McCain do the same thing?”
What exactly will an anti-war VP be saying about Obama’s leadership? What will it sound like? Now what will it sound like to group 3?
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:40 am
I just did a little experiment using Google Trends: a comparison of the Google popularity through time of the VP candidates: Word Face-Off blog. Biden came out on top, for what it’s worth.
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:41 am
It’s gonna be Clinton…. BILL Clinton!
max
['Get ready for the Schwarzenegger/Clinton amendment: foreigners and three terms!']
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:10 am
Max, I think it’s just the opposite with Clinton. It seems to me that having her on the ticket is one way to shut down the “is she derailing the campaign” gossip once and for all. Hold your friends close, and all that.
Understand, I’m no fan of hers. If there were really a standout among the CW alternatives I’d be all for that person (and I too am somewhat mystified that Schweitzer didn’t get a longer look). But all of the alternatives have flaws of their own, and as someone noted upthread, the alternatives have reminded us, by comparison, of Clinton’s political skills. Plus, as much as I resented her taking the low road with such relish in the primaries, that would be extremely useful in the general. It makes a huge difference which way the business end of the weapon is pointing. Plus, although I think the dead-enders are getting attention far out of proportion to their actual numbers, it’s incontestable that Obama/Clinton would mean instant party unity.
All that said, Al Gore would also be a “wow” pick and possibly a game-ender. Wes Clark doesn’t seem to me to have that game-over potential of Clinton or Gore, nor was he impressive at all on the stump in 2004.
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:15 am
I dread it may be Clinton or Bayh. Bayh got hit pretty hard when he was floated earlier in the week– I didn’t read a single kind word said about him, and I read quite a bit– but that was probably after the fix was in. That has all the makings of a disaster.
Biden says he’s “not the guy”, I’m inclined to take him at his word. There’s been little groundwork for Sebelius, Clark or Kaine. He’s still hurting in the polls among Clinton supporters, so I wouldn’t be totally shocked.
Shame that we can’t get someone who will challenge him from the LEFT. *sigh* But we’re going to vote for him anyhow.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:35 am
“Shame that we can’t get someone who will challenge him from the LEFT. *sigh* But we’re going to vote for him anyhow.”
What do you mean we, paleface?
If Obama doesn’t put at a lefty on the ticket to balance things out ideologically (aka Clinton), I’m not going to “vote for him anyway”.
August 22nd, 2008 at 7:15 am
Clinton.
August 22nd, 2008 at 7:39 am
The fact that you had to look up Brian Schweitzer to find out who he is seems to me to be the number one reason that he can’t be the guy. All of those text messages are going to go out to announce … Brian Schweitzer? Who?…
I am halfway there, but there’s another side to this -
Obama’s releasing his VEEP pick on a Friday, during the Olympics, with his convention starting early next week. There’s barely any need, within this time frame, for a big surprise announcement, and barely any oxygen for it to flourish.
Ferraro’s not nearly big enough to be a media game-changer over one weekend. The only names who fit that bill are Clinton and a bunch of people who definitely won’t be vice president. I think you’ve made a pretty good case for Clinton, not Ferraro.
My take, though, is that Obama built it up and built it up in order to build interest toward the convention, which is coming right up after this weekend. Releasing the veep on Friday makes the story the convention, not the veep. It’s probably going to be somebody boring. My hope is that it’s somebody who’s boring but not ludicrously conservative. (Not Bayh, in other words. Jack Reed would be nice. Joe Biden would be ok. Kathleen Sebelius would be good.)
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:12 am
Joe Sestak.
Slightly more serious, Jack Reed.
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:32 am
his wife
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:43 am
All the tea leaves are obviously pointing to Biden. Every Democrat in existence is telling Halperin it’s Biden. Andrea Mitchell has the scoop on Biden’s son flying in to Delaware. Biden’s not trading over 50 at Intrade randomly – insiders really are telegraphing Biden.
But here’s the thing:
- Why would Obama telegraph Biden 72 hours in advance if it is going to be Biden?
Over the past 40 years at a minimum, the last guy telegraphed as the Veep pick has never been the actual pick. The unbroken tradition here is to have a head-fake at the last moment to create surprise – aka the way Gephardt was madly telegraphed over the last 48 hours in 2004 before Edwards was picked.
If tradition holds, it’s not Biden.
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:48 am
I dunno. HRC is from Illinois. BTD points to “Team of Rivals” as a clue. What better way to show he can actually unite people. As a woman, she keeps the change message, regardless of her familiar (reassuring to many) name.
Anyone but Clinton will be highly anti-climatic. Biden is not worth the hullabaloo. Powell won’t run because of his wife’s aversion to the spotlight (wise woman). Sebelius is an unknown upstart smack in the face to many dem women. Kaine is anathema to most dem women. Bayh is blah. Clark seems off the guest list. Hagel and we should hang our heads in shame.
Heads exploding on air would be a blast to watch, too. Figuratively, of course.
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:50 am
Petey,
I’m guessing that by “we” he meant “adults who actually care more about the country than about posturing, and who recognize that presidential elections are zero-sum games between the two parties.”
So don’t worry, you weren’t included in “we.”
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:55 am
I am the first one that I know of to suggest Powell (although I’m sure there are others who thought of it too). That would be a total game changer. Think about it. It would end the race issue, not just for this election, but for all forseeable elections (TWO black men). Powell is a Republican. Powell is admired by a huge majority of Americans, and it’s easy to think of him as president. Foreign policy experience, of course.
I don’t think the O team has that much…audacity, and of course Powell might not want it, but if Obama did it, that would be the end of this race – boom.
All that said, I don’t know quite why people think they like Powell so much. He’s sane, which is nice, but he seems to me like just another CYA Pentagon careerist. But he would be an incredible pick.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
“So don’t worry, you weren’t included in “we”
Good to know the left isn’t “included” in the Obama campaign.
Obama really is the most conservative Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:04 am
Adding Powell to the ticket doesn’t end the race issue. It amplifies it. McCain can pick any white guy and run a subtle (or not so subtle) “us vs. them” campaign. And he would win.
I still think it’s going to be Clinton. A few months ago I would have apoplectic about that, but I’ve come to think it might be his best choice.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:17 am
I’ve been saying it since speculation began; I think it’ll be Al Gore. Nothing that Gore’s said or Obama’s said puts this prediction at risk; nothing in Gore’s record disadvantages any of Obama’s central electoral strategy. Most importantly, Gore reinforces Obama on the war stronger than anyone else — Gore was the most prominent opponent of the war circa spring 2003. “Just a speech in 2002″ goes out the window. Second in importance to that, Gore has the authority to call bullshit on McCain’s ecoposturing. Third, the only policy that anyone remembers from Gore’s 2000 campaign is the LOCKBOX; guess what: that’s going to look like pretty sage advice in retrospect given that the markets are right where they were when Bush’s tax cuts passed and we’re going to be treated to McCain running around saying the sky’s falling on Social Security.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:43 am
Dan at 9:04:
“I still think it’s going to be Clinton. A few months ago I would have apoplectic about that, but I’ve come to think it might be his best choice.”
Yeah, me too, exactly. Except in my case it was until a few days ago. Aaron better keep all sharp objects away from Andrew Sullivan, though.
Zach’s case for Gore is pretty compelling, too. My head says Clinton, my head and heart says Gore.
Looks like I was right about my earlier prediction that Team Obama will stand back for a bit and let the housekey thing reach critical mass.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:57 am
Kaine. Because personal chemistry matters, and Virginia matters even more.
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:03 am
Obama/Gore and McCain/Giuliani – those are my choices, based on nothing more than guesswork.
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:19 am
Petey,
You’re not “the left.” You’re just a strident poser who has never let your apparent ignorance of issues give you any pause about holding forth on them.
Example A: your implication that Obama is, on balance, more conservative than Bill Clinton was when he ran. I suppose you might be able to find an issue or two where this is true–although I’m not sure about that–but substantively it’s just not the case. (Rhetorically, of course, it’s a different story.)
And FYI–no, I don’t have a trustfund, but I may be a scumbag.
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:20 am
Jim Webb.
Yes, I know he swore he wasn’t interested. But politicians say that kind of thing all the time, and then when they suddenly emerge from the locker room (see: Willis Reed) it riles up the crowd more than anything and the change-of-heart seems borne of duty to country rather than personal ambition. He’d help win Virginia, and his ‘Nam-era military experience would help break up McCain’s monopoly on that stuff. The hints Obama dropped about his pick being independent, feisty, honest, and someone who’d tell him when he’s wrong, that all sounded like Webb to me.
August 22nd, 2008 at 11:16 am
I’m going to go with Schweitzer. Schweitzer speaks Arabic, probably the most important language to know if you have important concerns in the Middle East. Obama made a point of saying earlier this summer that speaking a second language was important.
Of course, several other candidates speak more than one language too. Biden and Dodd for example. Hillary Clinton seems to fill the bill if Obama wants a “sparring partner”, but if you think about it, Obama’s fights with Clinton were mostly insubstantial. Clinton more or less abandoned the fight over real issues like health-care to go after him on “bittergate”. Not the sort of sparring Obama really needs.
Politically, I’d say he should go for either Schweitzer or one of the Virginia guys, since Republican support has flatlined in both areas and a VP boost might put either region over the top, but I think Schweitzer has the most upside as an actual part of the administration.
Of course, if Obama’s hinting that it’s someone everyone knows, that limits the field quite a bit. Apart from Clinton, how many of these people really are household names. Not Schweitzer, not Biden, not Dodd, Sebelius, or Bayh. Edwards, but he’s out. Gore? Would he really want it?
I’m sticking with Schweitzer, and I’ll be proven wrong if necessary next week.
And if McCain picks Romney, I’ll try not to die laughing.
August 22nd, 2008 at 11:38 am
Bill Bradley.
I can’t take credit for that prediction, though. Bob Sommerby came up with that one. But I think he may be on to something.
Those of you predicting Powell are out of your minds. If Biden or Clinton are bad choices for supporting the war, what does that make Powell? If he had made a single peep when it actually mattered (instead of lying, repeatedly and blatantly, to the UN) the Iraq war never would have happened. Forget Powell. He does not deserve to have his reputation salvaged by hitching himself to Obama.
If Obama pick Powell I guess I’m voting for Nader. No way do I vote for Powell sort of a weeping, on his knees apology to the entire world for all the damage he caused.
Here’s my short list of people who will NOT be Obama’s VP:
* Clinton
* Biden
* Clark
* Webb
* Powell
* Kaine
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
The little voice within that was murmuring a few days ago is now almost yelling, “Surprise!”
Biden is the likeliest of the often-mentioned, and the family reunion under way at his home in Delaware suggests something is up. Biden, Clinton and Webb, unlike Bayh, Reed and Dodd, would not be succeeded by GOP appointees. Kaine’s and Schweitzer’s lieutenant governors are Republicans, and Sebelius’ lt. gov. is a former (?) Republican. I don’t think any of them would swing their states, and I think Obama is as serious as Dean about strengthening and broadening the party.
But I’m still thinking Obama has picked somebody on the fringes of the current partisan landscape, somebody with serious national-security or economic credentials.
DTM: Joe Sestak is not an unserious mention. Has Bob Kerrey been mentioned yet?
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Joe Biden fits my expected veep profile of a well-known, reassuring pick to middle America, but I’ll throw in two wild-cards: John Kerry or Bill Bradley. Bradley would be an absolute dream candidate, in my opinion.
Oops, looks like I took too long to type this…
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Kaine. Not a good pick, but that’s who’ll it be.
August 22nd, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Ron Paul.
August 22nd, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Clinton.
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Biden’s not trading over 50 at Intrade randomly – insiders really are telegraphing Biden.
No, they ain’t. The bullshit machine might be, but no-one knows anything apart from the people making the decision, and they ain’t talking.
August 22nd, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Patty Murray was vetted. How about that for a dark horse?
August 22nd, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Apparantly a Kansas printing company has been producing Obama/Bayh ‘08 signs.
Link here.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Congressman Joe Sestak from PA (former 3 star Admiral)
August 23rd, 2008 at 4:25 pm
It must be Romney , if not now , in 2012
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