Today’s Georgia Links
A few links for your perusal:
– In The American Prospect I argue that people are badly overstating the significance of all this.
– In The Root, Spencer Boyer puts the conflict in the larger context of deteriorating US-Russia relations.
– In The Guardian, James Poulos provides a Russia-sympathetic point of view.
– Last, Dan Nexon’s summation of what we know about the conflict.
NB: My writing about national security issues has normally been dominated by Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, etc. throughout my career because those have been the high-salience issues, but Russia and the former Soviet Union is the part of the world I was originally interested in and probably still know more about. Thus on a personal level, I’ve sort of been perversely glad to see the region return to prominence even though, on the merits, these are very sad events that have been unfolding.
31 Responses to “Today’s Georgia Links”
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August 14th, 2008 at 10:05 am
I see that Matt is channeling Condoleezza Rice today (”Russia and the former Soviet Union is the part of the world I was originally interested in and probably still know more about. Thus on a personal level, I’ve sort of been perversely glad to see the region return to prominence even though, on the merits, these are very sad events that have been unfolding.”).
August 14th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Gee, Mr Yglesias doesn’t link to his favorite columnist, whose take on the issue of Russia and Georgia is rather different then his.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/13/AR2008081303365.html
August 14th, 2008 at 10:13 am
The American Prospect piece is very well done Matt.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:25 am
My god, Matt. If Russia and the FSU are the parts of the world you know more about then there really is no reason to read your book! The sad part is that you don’t know that your knowledge of the area is really shallow.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:26 am
# DTM Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 10:05 am
I see that Matt is channeling Condoleezza Rice today (”Russia and the former Soviet Union is the part of the world I was originally interested in and probably still know more about. Thus on a personal level, I’ve sort of been perversely glad to see the region return to prominence even though, on the merits, these are very sad events that have been unfolding.”).
Condi is proving not to know anything about anything.
I used to think she was hot.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Matt,
For somone who is supposedly an expert in the former Soviet Union this article is deeply flawed.
First, you claim that Georgia provoked the war. This statement can only hold true if you ignore the fact that
A) Ossetian separatists spent the week running up to the war shelling and sniping at Georgian villages (which Russian state media covered in graphic detail.)
B) Russia has staged repeated incursions into Georgian airspace over the last few months, going so far as to destroy Georgian recon drones, and dropping an anti-radar missile on Georgian soil as a warning.
C) Russia had publicly and drastically upgraded its ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in preparation for formal recognition, which they had more or less admitted as their public goal.
D) The prior 17 years of Russian foreign policy towards Georgia, including the original carving out of Abkhaszia and South Ossetia as a means fo forcing Georgia into the CIS.
Meanwhile, you quote several neo-conservative warnings of coming war with Ukraine in order to mock them. This is all well and good, and god knows that its important to regularly mock Bill Kristol. But its curious that you don’t quote Sergei Markov (former Putin aide, Duma deputy, and Kremlin backed think tank director) making similar warnings (threats) about the coming war with Ukraine. Why is that exactly?
August 14th, 2008 at 10:31 am
For somone who is supposedly an expert in the former Soviet Union this article is deeply flawed.
I don’t think I’ve ever claimed to be an “expert” on anything; I think the idea of “experts” is sort of bullshit. It’s just an area of the world I’ve spent time in, where I know people, where I’m familiar to some extent with the culture, etc.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:35 am
SLC links to Krauthammer:
“President Bush could cash in on his close personal relationship with Putin by sending him a copy of the highly entertaining (and highly fictionalized) film “Charlie Wilson’s War” to remind Vlad of our capacity to make Russia bleed. Putin would need no reminders of the Georgians’ capacity and long history of doing likewise to invaders.”
Putin could send back a book on Chechnya. The Russians going on and on about human rights and genocide is bizarrre.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Ok Matt, you’re right that the term expert is somewhat overused and you didn’t use it. You still haven’t addressed any of the points I made, and if you’re familiar with the culture you should have at least some idea about how this is being displayed in the Russian media as a proxy war with the West, and that the next logical theatre is Ukraine. Yet you remain curiously silent on both points.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Also, you simply must check out Anatol Lieven in today’s FT:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/95713d6c-6966-11dd-91bd-0000779fd18c.html
August 14th, 2008 at 10:53 am
“It’s just an area of the world I’ve spent time in”
When, Matt? A few weeks or months as an undergrad several years ago in one city? Have you been back? This doesn’t even rise to the Tom Friedman level.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Regarding Krauthammer (I’m cut and pasting most of my response to the dead thread into which SLC posted his link to special K…)
That article is marginally better than Krauthammer’s usual idiocy – if only because he understands that we have no military options.
He’s still an idiot, though. First he argues — and I understand the reasoning — that with the “Finlandization” (now there’s a term!) of Georgia, Russia becomes “master of the Caspian Basin.” Those of us who are a little more awake might have understood that Russia never stopped being “master of the Caspian Basin,” and that our very inability to respond to the invasion of Georgia *proves* that Russia was, de facto, in control all along. But whatever. The man’s a psychiatrist, not a political science professor – cut him some slack.
Then the *funny* part comes. Krauthammer wants to scare off the big, bad bear by boycotting the 2014 olympics and expelling Russia from the G8. Scary! Doesn’t he sound like a parody of a limp-wristed liberal here? Just saying…
Look, special K, what would *you* do if you were a tyrant (as you doubtless are in your private fantasies)? Have a nice olympic games and a nice economic summit, or “be master of the Caspian basin?” Maybe we *should* boycott the Olympics and expel Russia from the G8 – but don’t expect it to work, genius. We need them a lot more than they need us, and that won’t change unless we (including Europe) can somehow do without their gas & oil.
The crazy talk really begins when he talks about arming a Georgian government in exile, if necessary. So he’d cheerfully risk another cold war for the *benefit* of starting another Chechnyan war? Speaking of which, why isn’t anyone writing about how Chechnya is involved in all of this, since it borders on Georgia?
There, my friends, is Krauthammer, one of the great geopolitical minds of our time. Bow in awe. Boycott the 2014 Olympics and Russia will flee in terror…
I think one of Matt’s big points through this whole debacle is critical: we never should have been stringing the Georgians along. We got our bluff called, which is humiliating for us and devastating for them. *Everyone* would have been better off if they had understood that they couldn’t act overtly against Russia any more than we’d let Mexico act overtly against us.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:12 am
The First line of Matt’s Article
“The war between Russia and Georgia which appears — mercifully — to have ended”
Maybe you should to edit that line?
August 14th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
“A) Ossetian separatists spent the week running up to the war shelling and sniping at Georgian villages (which Russian state media covered in graphic detail.)”
Exactly right. But then it gets very murky, (1) as the Georgians were talking ceasefire and even the Russians seemed to be getting annoyed with the South Ossetians and (2) I’m not at all convinced Russia would have come down like a ton of bricks if the Georgians hand’t mounted their offensive.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
This is where the rubber meets the road on your fantasies of a Scoop Jackson -lite bi-partisan foreign policy, Matthew. Putin is standing up to the New Zionist/Corporatist World Order. He’s standing up to the parasitic, full spectrum dominance enemy of all man and womankind. If you don’t see that you’re callow geopolitical sophistry is the jv version of “Securing the Realm”, making the world safe for the extermination of the Palestinians, stealing the precious resources of 3/4 of the world and ushering in the master/slave dystopia Naomi Klein has chronicled so well – you’ve got a blind spot as big as The Wailing Wall. THe War is on and the only ones on your side are Lieberman, McCain, Krauthammer, Kristol, Perle, Cheney, and Glick, i.e. the scum of the earth.
August 14th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
1) Hmmm. The 2014 Olympics are supposed to be held at Russia’s Sochi resort — just a few miles north of the Georgian border.
2) Maybe the Olympic Committee could add a new event in honor of the host country — the 50 mile armored regiment sprint.
As a peacemaking gesture, we could give Saakashvili the honor of firing the starter’s pistol.
August 14th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Matt: “I don’t think I’ve ever claimed to be an “expert” on anything; I think the idea of “experts” is sort of bullshit.”
That explains a lot about this blog.
Like most philosophy degree holders, knowledge is considered a low level function.
August 14th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Notice how Daragh McDowell treats issues only going back to just before the conflict escalated. Typical neocon propaganda – just treat history as if it started last week.
He ignores the Georgian buildup of its military for years now, buttressed by US and Israeli arms sales and military advisers. He ignores the previous history of Georgian domination of the region. He ignores the un-democratic nature of the Georgian government and the connections of Saakashvili to the US and of Georgian state officials to Israel.
Let’s take his points individually:
So what? Part of the ongoing conflict that’s over a decade old by now. Apparently you think Georgia has done nothing to provoke this? Got evidence? What part of “separatist” don’t you understand?
And Georgia has allegedly been violating overflight agreements with Ossetia – using Israeli-supplied drones. Who’s incursions are who’s here?
And the US and Israel have flooded Georgia with military arms with Georgia’s absorption into NATO as their public goal. Russia has more ties with these countries than Georgia, so exactly what’s the problem with Russia upgrading its ties?
And ignoring the previous century and more of history in the region which explains Russia’s connections toward those regions as well as its problems with Georgia.
Face it, you’re a propagandist for Georgia, the neocons or both.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
My writing about national security issues has normally been dominated by Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, etc.
In what way has your writing been “dominated” by Afghanistan? You’ve written – and apparently read – precious little on the subject, except to periodically pout that America needs a Surge of More Troops there.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
I am still waiting for someone to tell me what the difference is between Russia’s support of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and our support of Kosovo is.
August 14th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Hmmm. The 2014 Olympics are supposed to be held at Russia’s Sochi resort — just a few miles north of the Georgian border.
Not as of 2014, methinks. The part of Georgia that is close to Sochi is the disputed territory of Abkhazia — and I suspect that it will be Russian by 2014.
(Sochi is a really fun city, by the way.)
August 15th, 2008 at 1:22 am
Mikelotus – Good point, and I happen to think recognising Kosovan independence was criminally stupid. But in the larger context, the difference is this: NATO attacked Serbian forces in the process of ethnically cleansing Kosovan villages and towns. Russia has, and not only in this particular war, SUPPORTED Abkhaz and South Ossetian forces in the process of ethnically cleansing Georgian villages.
August 15th, 2008 at 1:32 am
Yes RSH, in attempting to force my own cynical neo-con frame on this conflict and Russo-Georgian relations, I consider only the period when Russian Georgia have existed as independent states with foreign policies towards one another. Rats! You got me there! Oh well, me and my Jewish buddies are off to provoke a conflict in some other part of the world. We run the world you know…
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