Today
Good news as Russia appears to be about down teaching Georgia whatever lesson Russia was looking to teach. Ben Armbruster wonders where this leaves neocon predictions:
– Max Boot: “The Russian attacks on Georgia, if left unchecked, could easily trigger more conflict in the future. […] Today, Georgia; tomorrow, Ukraine; the day after, Estonia?”
– AEI Fellow and McCain adviser Gary Schmitt: “It is also about resisting Russia’s openly hegemonic designs on its neighbors — including Ukraine.”
– Wall Street Journal: “Unless Russians see that there are costs for their Napoleon’s expansionism, Georgia isn’t likely to be his last stop.”
Needless to say, not only are Russian tanks not rolling toward Kiev, but Russia isn’t so much as taking over Georgia. Now I doubt Russia is showing restraint out of the goodness of Vladimir Putin’s heart, but he’s also not showing restraint because the United States did anything to stop him. Rather, even in the absence of a “tough” American response, Putin has stuck to relatively moderate goals because it’s not actually true that the “lessons of Munich” are applicable to every single event in the world. Occupying Georgia would be more trouble than it’s worth, so it’s not going to happen, and Russia won’t attack Ukraine either. The past week’s events have been terrible for Georgians, but not world-historical in their significance.
American punditry is constantly full of dire worst-case scenario predictions about what will happen if the U.S. doesn’t “do something” in this or that situation. But most often these things don’t — and wouldn’t — happen anyway.
353 Responses to “Today”
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August 12th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Does that mean these lazy writers are going to have to learn more history to draw lessons from?
August 12th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Did you mean “about done”?
.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
And just to top everything, the Russians now get to claim the moral high ground. “Unlike our counterparts in Georgia, _we_ are dedicated to a peaceful resolution of the situation in South Ossetia. Now that their attempt to subdue Ossetia by force has been decisively repulsed, we implore them to return to the negotiating table.”
That’s how the great game is played. Some people ought to be taking notes.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Yes, neocons are taking a very wrong message away from this incident. But there ought to be some caution about going too far in the opposite direction. No troops have been withdrawn from Georgia yet. The ceasefire order hasn’t taken hold yet and, as our mutual friend with an ear to the Tbilisi Street pointed out, the order hasn’t come from V. Putin.
Neither here nor there with regard to conservative self-serving conclusions, and something that time will tell, of course. But Medvedev’s order in itself doesn’t prove that their interest was merely responsive to the situation. Russia was very eager to be provoked and though they proved/gained a lot from this exchange, there’s more they might accomplish if they felt provoked again, even in the face of a ceasefire.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
AAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Even the article Matt links to has typos!
Matt is the Typhoid Mary of our mother tongue!
.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
The neocons consistently fall into the trap of believing that the world’s leaders are as crazy as the neocons. No doubt if the neocons lived in Russia, they would be advocating that Russia occupy Georgia and the Ukraine. And then they would advocate that Russia continue the campaign into Western Europe. I guess it’s a good thing that the neocons don’t control Russian foreign policy. It would also be a good thing if the neocons didn’t control our foreign policy.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Aaaaaaaand here’s the iconic image for the whole stupid mess. That’s Saak (as in “Georgia’s head of state is teh Saak”), ducking for cover as a jet flies over.
Look at his face.
.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
In the long run, losing control of South Ossetia may be in Georgia’s best interests. Trying to control a rebellious population in a resource-poor territory isn’t worth the cost.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
1) Actually, Russia has won BIG from this invasion. South Ossetia and Abkhazia will become autonomous –i.e., essentially part of Russia, Georgia will shrink to about 60 miles across in places, and huge Russia military forces will be stationed right beside her.
2) Which means the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan-Israel Pipeline is toast — and US dreams of grabbing the Caspian Sea with it.
Chevron won’t be able to cut their losses — but Putin will probably allow them to drill provided they pay a huge ransom/tax.
3) Putin doesn’t have to totally occupy Georgia to control the pipeline — he is close enough now (10 miles??) to be able to sabotage it at will and blame “Georgian saboteurs” or “Siberian Separatists”. In fact, it works to Putin’s advantage to leave the Georgians unoccupied — they make convenient scapegoats/fall guys.
No investor in their right mind will risk money in the Caspian now without Russia as senior partner. For a minor expenditure, Putin has grabbed the world’s third? largest oil reserve.
4) When Cheney was at Halliburton, he argued with the Clinton Administration that the USA should make a Nixon-China move — make peace with/form a strong alliance with IRAN!!
It’s a VERY SHORT distance across Iran for a pipeline from the Caspian to the Indian Ocean (tanker terminals for transport to USA and China). Plus Iran is strong enough to protect the pipeline even from the Russians, especially with US backing. Carrier groups and ships from Diego Garcia could pull right up to Iranian ports.
Actually, a nuclear-armed Iran is suddenly not looking all that bad. That would certainly stop those Russian armored groups — even Putin hesitate to fuck with crazy religious nuts like Adminejhad if Adminejhad had nukes.
5) Of course, that fucks Israel –who is left sucking on an empty straw at the Ceyhan terminus on the Turkey coast.
I suspect the Big Oil - Israel Lobby Neocon alliance of convenience is about to suffer some ..er..turbulance.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
1) Plus a US-IRAN alliance would make those oil deposits in IRAQ a lot more secure.
2) This development might actually deter that strike on IRAN that I predicted Cheney/Bush would make this fall. Previously, it seemed reasonable to me that Big Oil would need to hang a fait accompli –war with Iran — around Obama’s neck before Obama entered office (and Cheney left.)
Else that Iraq investment will have a short life. But that might change now.
Same calculus works for Russia as well. Wonder what Adminejhad will think if he starts getting courted from both Washington and Moscow?
It also suggests that Adminejhad is more likely to get MAJOR support from Russia now in the event of a US attack.
Wonder where those 3 carrier groups (USS Ronald Reagan, USS Abraham Lincoln, and USS Theodore Roosevelt ) are?
August 12th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
I have to disagree with the idea that Russia wins big. I think they actually end up hurting in a number of ways from this venture. There’s a nascent schism of sorts in Russia between the siloviki (Putin’s gang) and let’s say the (more or less) legitimate business contingent who actually want Russia to be a legitimate economic power. With this episode, Georgia loses that legitimacy. If they’d stuck to pushing the Georgians back to the border of the conflict zones and maybe a few additional potshots to make them hurt, that would be one thing. But when they overstepped their bounds, that was really a game-changer.
It will be interesting to see what happens with S.O. and Abkhazia. OSCE Chair said almost at once that Russia’s days as a peacekeeping force are over. Russia won’t want int’l peacekeepers though and TBS says that Russian military in these areas will be considered occupying forces, so there’s a lot of wrangling left to do.
Finally, to Matt, you seem to imply that Russia planned all along to stop at this stage and there was never any real threat. I’d disagree pretty strenuously with that. They achieve nothing by marching to Gori and pulling up short with no gains beyond what they had at the borders and huge costs in terms of legitimacy and prestige (and potentially sacrificing their peacekeeper presence as well). They wanted Saakashvili deposed whether by a panicked Georgian populace (check out Gamsakhurdia — we have precedent) or negotiating a resignation in exchange for peace.
I’ll be controversial here and say I actually do think the Russians got spooked by the combo of Bush’s statement, the NATO meeting scheduled for today, and the slew of european presidents washing up in Tbilisi. Not enough to give up, mind you, but enough to pause.
August 12th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
1) China would probably prefer that Iran cuts a deal with Russia, rather than the USA. Between them, Russia and Iran would grab the Caspian Sea deposits ( with now landlocked/isolated Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan left empty handed).
2) True, Russia and Iran would charge China for the Oil, but a major Russian Naval base on the southern coast of IRan would be a big help to China in protecting its oil tankers from the US Pacific fleet.
3) Not only directly — a Russian fleet/fortress based on the southern Iranian coast would hold a knife across the American carotid — the line of tankers passing from Arabia/Kuwait/Iraq through the Persian Gulf.
The quid pro quo for the US Navy leaving Chinese tankers alone would the Russians/Iranians/Chinese fleets leaving tankers destined for the USA alone.
4) Russia could also protect a land pipeline running from the Caspian east to China.
5) All of which suggests China now has a strong incentive to also support IRAN in the event of a US attack.
6) Something tells me George W is not a very good bridge partner.
August 12th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Republicans and neoconservatives are not prone to prolonged bouts of sanity, so none of this is surprising. Up next: Eritrea invades Djibouti. America cannot stand idly by! Intervention is the only option.
August 12th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
I have no idea whether success in Georgia will embolden Russia to revise the results of Soviet collapse, but the idea that these predictions are incorrect because Russia isn’t invading Ukraine right now is just plain stupid.
Munich was signed in September of 1938, Hitler invaded the rest of Czechoslovakia in March of 1939, and attacked Poland in September of 1939.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
I’ll be controversial here and say I actually do think the Russians got spooked by the combo of Bush’s statement, the NATO meeting scheduled for today, and the slew of european presidents washing up in Tbilisi. Not enough to give up, mind you, but enough to pause.
Did you notice the two SS-21 missle launchers that got moved into the theatre? Those were tactical nukes and they had nothing to do with Georgia. That’s pushing a chip forward on a scale that makes Bush talk and shuffling diplomats in and out of Tbilisi look laughably weak.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:09 am
Matt, honestl, I got to say this is something of a weak post for a number of reasons. First off ‘teaching Georgia a lesson?’ - that’s just a bit too cynical. I know it wasn’t covered much in the West, but watching Russian TV in my Kiev apartment last week the focus of every news broadcast was the ’sniper war’ that led up to the conflict, with dramatic shots of Ossetian refugees being evacuated by Russia and so forth. The Georgian’s of course majorly overplayed their hand on this one, but it was a result of direct Russian provocation.
Secondly - no Russia is not ‘taking over’ Georgia in the traditional sense. Its peace terms do demand that Abkhazia and South Ossetia be given the right to secede and join Russia (which with Russian encouragement they will) which will dismember the country, probably topple Saakashvili and allow the Russians by more subtle means to install a puppet government.
Finally - yes you are right, Ah-HA!, that Russian tanks are not currently rolling towards Kiev. They’re far too busy for that right now. But that doesn’t mean its not a possibility in the future. In short, just because a Neo-Con sais it, doesn’t mean it isn’t true. And I know you don’t read the Russian papers, but if you did you’d see the anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is ramping up, just as the anti-Georgian did a few weeks ago. Pravda.ru published a quote from the ‘deputy director of the Institute for Political Technology’ (those would be the people that Putin sent in to help Yanukovych steal the election in 2004) that Ukraine’s behaviour was increasing the likelihood it would be ‘wiped off the map’ (the exact quote in Russian is Помогая Грузии, Ющенко может стереть Украину с карты мира for those who want to check my translation.) Sergei Markov, a former Putin aide, Duma Deputy and now head of a another Kremlin allied think tank (i.e. a man whose words should be taken very seriously) is also talking up a war with Ukraine.
I hope none of this sounds too hectoring, but there seems to have been a form of willful blindness in left-blogistan over this conflict (and just to be clear, I’m so left I supported Edwards for president. I think McCain would be awful. There, bona fides provided) simply because the opinion makers on one side of the argument happen to belong to a certain group. To put it another way, just because Dick Cheney says something, doesn’t mean he’s wrong.
August 13th, 2008 at 3:55 am
Theres one more aspect where Putin won big. I read russian media, blogs and couple of forums. The putinjugend is going apeshit over the discovery and confirmation that yes, they are ROSSIA, unstoppable, they dont need anybody and can do whatever the fuck they want. In Moscow, in bigger russia and in russian enthnic communities in bordering states. Any small voices of reason scattered here and there are drowned quick.
Sitting here in Baltic it is friggen scary on so many levels.
Putin is now a demigod to them, not just the imperator anymore.
August 13th, 2008 at 4:25 am
i have this nagging feeling that the American neocons are actually behind this Saakasvilli slapstick caper- they wanted to manufacture a crisis that would project the EXPERIENCE & FOREIGN POLICY credentials of McCain over Obama. This is still a long story, Russia will surely turn Ossetia & Abkhazia into Russia’s Kosovo,& I foresee McCain will be slugging it for the headlines as this thing heats up near election time.
August 13th, 2008 at 5:38 am
Frank Wilson is right - this entire affair was orchestrated by Bush and Cheney in order to get Georgia into NATO in December, and thereby push NATO and the US military right up to Russia’s borders.
In fact, Russia made considerable efforts for rapprochement with Georgia in advance of the current situation, and only changed course when it became apparent that the US and Israel and France were flooding arms and military advisers into Georgia, leading Russia to question who exactly Georgia intended to go to war with.
Indeed, at the start of the conflict, Russia approached the UN Security Council for a resolution for both sides to lay down their arms. The US wasn’t interested.
There are apparently excellent historical reasons for Russia to react the way it did, as well as excellent current political reasons for Russia to do so.
Adult assessments of Russia’s purpose in this situation indicate that Russia has to continue to make nice with Europe and vice versa due to energy considerations. It is the US who is driving this notion that Georgia needs to be in NATO - the Europeans don’t like the idea for precisely the reason that this conflict exposes.
August 13th, 2008 at 6:05 am
RSH, as someone who actually lives in Europe and has seen the cowardly reaction of our leaders, I can tell you you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Honestly, the effort to ascribe all evils in the world to Cheney and co., while perhaps morally satisfying and not entirely undeserved given their past actions, is ultimately futile. There’s been a seriously worrying trend in the left blogo-sphere on the Georgia issue - wait to see what the Neocons say, and then argue that the exact opposite must be the truth because hey, the Neocons said it! This is not entirely their own fault as 7+ years of stupidity on behalf of said group has of course bred well-founded suspicions, but c’mon guys! Every now and again someone has to evaluate a situation critically on its own merits, not on the basis of who is on which side.
August 13th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Daragh, I’m evaluating this based on articles I’m reading from people who are looking at the other side of the issue than the one the MSM media - which is owned and operated by people who are interested in the US dominating the world - are pushing.
In other words, I’m looking at it from the viewpoint of some history and some appreciation of the Russian viewpoint, rather than just “what’s in it for the US?”
As for me not knowing what I’m talking about, take that up with the people who are writing the articles I’m basing my impressions on. And those people have some experience in the regions involved.
Your notion that this was a direct result of Russian “provocation” doesn’t explain a vicious assault on civilians in Ossetia. Nor does it explain the enormous influx of military equipment and trainers from the US and Israel. Saakashvili was clearly being manipulated to start a fight he couldn’t win, with the intent of making Russia the “bad guy” to allow Georgia to become another outpost of the neocons via NATO. And you fell for it.
Don: Forget a Russian naval base on Iran’s southern shores. The Chinese are already considering putting a naval base there. They are going to have scores of billions invested in Iranian oil and gas, so they have a lot to protect in Iran as well as the Russians do. And they also want to be able to make India think twice about its naval power - a base in Iran would have India “encircled at sea” and would challenge India directly in the Indian Ocean.
China has had very good economic reasons to support Iran for some time now, and basically has been going along with Russia in opposing sanctions. And they also have a serious weapon against a US attack on Iran - dumping the US dollar.
By some accounts, those three carrier groups AS WELL AS a number of French warships are heading for the Gulf. We won’t know for sure until they get there. I’ve seen ships reported as heading for the Gulf that never got there before - the Reagan in the past was reputedly headed for the Gulf but ended up in the West Pacific - within range of the Gulf in a few weeks, but not there. We also have to remember that the US NAvy can “surge” 3 to 6 carriers within a few weeks to any operational area in the world.
The most likely explanation is that when Congress reconvenes in September, they will pass the “Iran blockade” bills - and those ships will then be set up to enforce it. Of course, that will start a war which both Bush and Israel can claim was “perfectly legal” and had nothing to do with them.
Remember, the Bushehr reactor goes on line in October or thereabouts. You can imagine the screaming this will provoke in the Israeli/AIPAC crowd and the result will be perfect timing for starting a war just before the elections.
August 13th, 2008 at 10:36 am
RSH - I’ve been watching the conflict from my apartment in Kyiv, and reading about it in the Russian and Ukrainian newspapers. Additionally, I happen to be a doctoral student studying Russian foreign policy in what it terms the ‘near abroad’ so I think I have a slightly better grasp of the issues involved than most, including the fact that this conflict goes back to Russian meddling in the region before the Soviet Union had even officially dissolved. If you really want to blame every foreign policy clusterfuck in this world on the evil neocons (and to be clear again, I’m proudly left-liberal.) go ahead, but be aware it will lead to some staggeringly wrong-headed analysis. And if you want to mock the US ‘MSM’ for its coverage of the war fine, you shouldn’t follow it up with breathless parotting of the Russian line about ‘vicious assaults’ against civilians (which they spent all of last week very ostentatiously evacuating on Russian state television BTW. Funny that there were so many left in a region with a population of about 70,000.)
In fact the only independent assessment from the ground that has come out so far is from Human Rights Watch. Headline - Georgian Villages in South Ossetia Burnt, Looted.
August 13th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
If I were some sort of responsible and sensible neocon, than I would try to convince the Georgians to swallow their patriotic pride and formally accept the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and then re-apply for NATO-membership, which would be much harder for the Europeans to deny since the ethnic conflicts would be solved. If Georgia then were a NATO-member, all what Putin would have won would be yet another two areas with non-Russian majorities Moscow would have to govern, while Georgia would be reasonably protected from Russian imperialism with the Kremlin having run out of pretexts for causing trouble.
August 13th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Georgian villages burnt and looted? What do you expect - it’s the Russian army! Jesus, get a clue!
You haven’t produced one iota of evidence that this is all Russia’s fault. Meanwhile, the ACKNOWLEDGED facts show that the US and Israel have been supporting Georgia big time. And there’s only one reason those two countries support some little-ass outfit on the borders of Russia. And it isn’t because Russia is at fault here.
Proudly “left-liberal”, my ass.
August 14th, 2008 at 3:16 am
RSH - This isn’t a new development: this the logical culmination of Russian foreign policy in the region since the collapse of the Soviet Union! The whole reason there’s an Abkhazia and South Ossetia at all is because the Russian army backed them up as a means of getting rid of Zviad Gamsakhurdia and forcing Georgia into the CIS. Over the past few months Russian fighters have been invading Georgian airspace, firing on Recon drones and even dropping missiles on Georgian territory.
Yes, you got me, Israel and America *gasp* sold weapons to a country that lived next to a clearly hostile neighbour that almost daily threatened them with military force. Heaven fore-fucking-fend. Does Georgia have strategic value to the West? Yes, of course it does. Doe that make Western support morally wrong? In your view, it seems yes. Any country we support, must, de facto, be the aggressor.
And Matt, while you’ve been mocking neo-cons for declaring ‘Ukraine is next,’ you haven’t been listening to Dmitri Kozak, Sergei Markov or other highly placed Putinistas who have been saying, in effect, Ukraine is next. The Russian MFA just put out a statement strongly condeming Ukraine for its quote ‘anti-Russian’ actions. That is, refusing to allow the Russian Blacksea Fleet to dock at Sevastopol while it is engaged in military actions in Georgia, an action it has every right to take under international law.
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