The Stevenson Scenario
As everyone has now heard, Joe Biden has now said he’s not the VP pick. It seems, basically, that neither Biden nor Evan Bayh nor Tim Kaine nor Kathleen Sebelius is going to get the nod. Nor are candidates who’ve gotten grassroots support such as Hillary Clinton or Wesley Clark going to be chosen. Nor Bill Richardson nor Chris Dodd. And yet the VP will also be someone from that list of aforementioned not-choices. Which is puzzling. But by the same token, a month ago everyone knew that Barack Obama “had to” make his pick before the start of the Olympics. And yet he didn’t. So presumably everything we know is wrong.
But as long as the world needs blog posts and Veep speculation, how about this — Obama could pull an Adlai Stevenson in 1956 and throw the selection open to the Convention delegates. The problem with that move, of course, is that you don’t get to fine-tune the pick. But it turns out to be the case that there seem to be substantial problems with all the possible picks. And opening the selection to the field would ensure huge media coverage of the convention and perhaps a bigger-than-usual convention bump.
68 Responses to “The Stevenson Scenario”
Register
RSSLogin
Topic Cloud
ArchivesBlog RollAbout Matt YglesiasContact Me
Donate
August 20th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Or in the real world it will be seen as wishy washy and weak and even further push the unready to lead McCain campaign line in the media.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Worked for Stevenson!
August 20th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Obama should take Time magazine’s idea and say his vice president is: “You!”
August 20th, 2008 at 10:40 am
“Worked for Stevenson!”
That’s been Obama’s slogan all along, y’know…
August 20th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Wouldn’t this be the same as just picking Clinton?
August 20th, 2008 at 10:42 am
You mean ‘pick HR Clinton’. It would be a way of passing the buck for this choice. If they conclude they need Clinton to win, well, that’s the way it is.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:43 am
“Worked for Stevenson!”
I mean, seriously, who could imagine a goo-goo egghead from Illinois not winning against a war hero?
August 20th, 2008 at 10:45 am
And Eisenhower was even an egg-head as well…ah, the good old days.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Actually, Biden has backed off his claim that “I’m not the guy” and is now just saying he doesn’t know any better than anyone else. There’s a visit with Kaine planned for tonight, but of course that could be a headfake.
See:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/biden-on-obamas.html
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/08/as-joe-biden-di.html
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12659.html
August 20th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Or he could just do the smart thing and pick the guy that hasn’t really made a convincing case that he’s not interested, would completely drown out any attempt by McCain to make noise with his pick, and would simultaneously reinforce Obama on the war more than any of the common wisdom picks, contrast with McCain on Social Security, recall a time of moderation in spending and fiscal sanity, and utterly neutralize McCain’s hollow pandering on the environment… wups, maybe I gave it away with that last point.
The common wisdom on Gore is that he’s afraid to risk politicizing the gains he’s made in gaining public recognition for global warming. I’m sure he realizes that the issue’s hopelessly partisan already, and that he’ll have to run completely counter to most Republicans to actually fix the problem soon. Gore’s also the one choice that’d be a total surprise without being a no-name candidate.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:52 am
“Gore’s also the one choice that’d be a total surprise without being a no-name candidate.”
Bill Bradley, Kerry, and HRC would also be total surprises without being no-names.
HRC may be the obvious choice to the cognoscenti, but she’s still a 20 to 1 shot at Intrade at the moment.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Like right said, opening it up to the convention means Clinton would be the VP. I suppose that would be a way in which he could pick her without alienating his supporters as much as picking her ahead of time, but I don’t see it happening
August 20th, 2008 at 11:00 am
The timing of the selection is one of those political junkie things that has no meaning to anybody else and even political junkies will have forgotten the day after the announcement. As for opening the selection to the convention, that would be retarded. It would just open up Obama to criticism that he is indecisive/inexperienced and not ready to be President. There are plenty of adequate choices for him to pick. He will make his pick and announce it when he is ready.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:02 am
I’m a Kansan. I have voted for Sebelius twice. I have donated money to her twice. I love Kathleen.
But can anyone tell me why she should be a Vice Presidential nominee other than the fact she’s a woman? Don’t tell me its because she won in a red state – the dynamics of Kansas politics make it such that a left-center or right-center candidate will always defeat a conservative candidate. Does she have any foreign policy experience? Has she done anything in her gubernatorial tenure to distinguish herself?
She is an effective administrator and that is about it. She hasn’t been able to move much of a progressive agenda – granted she has a tough road to hoe in an overwhelmingly Republican legislature – but why should she get credit for that?
There are many better choices – sadly, I don’t see very many strong female candidates. I think that is something the party needs to address, but not through picking a woman for VP just because she is a woman.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Well according to First Read, Biden is walking back the “I’m not the guy” statement, basically saying that when he said that, he was saying that he was not Joe Biden.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Odd … isn’t Kansas one of the very most conservative states?
August 20th, 2008 at 11:16 am
That’s been Obama’s slogan all along, y’know…I mean, seriously, who could imagine a goo-goo egghead from Illinois not winning against a war hero?
With “friends” like Petey the left really doesn’t even need republicans. I’m looking forward to his inevitable endorsement of Nader. You know it’s coming.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:24 am
My interpretation of the walkback was that when he said “I’m not the guy” he meant “I don’t know that I am the guy”.
I’ve heard the decision had been made. I haven’t heard that the VP nominee knows it is him/her. It could be that Biden has been picked, and just doesn’t know it.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Odd … isn’t Kansas one of the very most conservative states?
I can’t speak to Kansas specifically. But in very conservative Indiana, where I grew up, the political dynamics often support Democrats in state and local elections because the Democrats are free to run moderate-to-conservative technocrats, whereas the Republican Party has to appease hordes of creationists and other screeching wingnut lunatics who frighten the business community.
You sometimes see the reverse effect in liberal enclaves (New Yorkers supporting Republican mayors, Mitt Romney winning in Massachusetts).
August 20th, 2008 at 11:27 am
I figure Obama is gonna lay his whole campaign fund on the biggest longshot at InTrade and pick him or her as the VP.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:32 am
My interpretation of the walkback was that when he said “I’m not the guy” he meant “I don’t know that I am the guy”.
I suppose that could be what the walkback statement meant, however I took it to be an attempt at the fabled “Jedi Mind Trick”…you know, “these are not the ‘droids your looking for” sort of thing.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Or we could stop trying to run like Adalai every four years.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:34 am
“Odd … isn’t Kansas one of the very most conservative states?”
What LaFollette said. The GOP nominates far-right candidates, alienating socially liberal moderate Republicans and RINOs, ensuring victory for a left of center Dem.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:36 am
There is one thing we know: it will not be John Edwards.
The common wisdom on Gore is that he’s afraid to risk politicizing the gains he’s made in gaining public recognition for global warming.
I think he’s gone too far out on a limb with environmentalism lately that Obama would have to do a tricky distancing from Gore’s proposals. Also, Gore would completely upstage Obama, and people would openly wonder why the ticket wasn’t reversed (hell, I would wonder that).
August 20th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Is George Mitchell available?
August 20th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Bill Bradley, Kerry, and HRC would also be total surprises without being no-names.
Yeah, but I want Gore to get it. HRC would only be a surprise to the media; not the wider public who, if polled, would probably rank Hillary the most likely selection. There would be a brief bit of panic as folks tried to figure out how to report the story… do the Clintons have Obama by the balls? Is Obama afraid of losing white support? Does he have a woman problem? Is he intimidated by the army of PUMAs? So many possible ridiculous storylines but only one to coalesce around!
August 20th, 2008 at 11:49 am
I think he’s gone too far out on a limb with environmentalism lately that Obama would have to do a tricky distancing from Gore’s proposals.
How would that be, exactly? McCain’s already assailing Obama as wanting to tax your electricity and that’d be the only attack that’d (somewhat) logically flow out of Gore’s 100% clean electricity by 2018 challenge. Gore can pointedly call on the media to make direct questions to McCain as to whether his plan will reduce CO2 emissions — ask whether McCain’s willing to negotiate with other nations to tackle the global problem, etc. None of that is particularly controversial, and since it’d be Gore attacking and not Obama, questions like, “how you gonna pay for that, smartypants?” would be a lot less germane.
Gore can say, “I’m interested in nuclear power, too, but the fact is that 45 new nuke plants by 2030 will offset less foreign oil than filling our tires up to the proper pressure. John McCain pretends to offer solutions to the climate crisis (at least he acknowledges it), but it’s insulting to every American to pretend that his plans are bold enough to meet the demand for clean energy in the 21st Century.” Obama can’t really say that… he’s vulnerable on subsidies, not particularly experienced on energy issues, etc. It’s one of McCain’s biggest unjustified claims of bipartisan cred and a Gore VP nod would go a long way toward blowing it up.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Matt,
I’ve considered this possibility. The problem is, if he throws it completely open, there’s a 99% chance that the Convention picks Hilary. If Barack doesn’t actually want to pick the VP, he needs to either (1) somehow get Hilary to renounce the VP bid from the podium at the Convention, or (2) work out a procedure where the Convention is restricted to a list of names. The problem with #2 is, if Hilary is not on that list of names, then the PUMAs will go nuts. That leaves #1, and I just don’t see Hilary passing up the VP (and with it the 2016 frontrunner status) unless she’s somehow had a change of heart and decided she doesn’t want to be President anymore.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
When exactly did Sebelius get ruled out? (Insofar as any of these people are ‘ruled out’.)
August 20th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
“There is one thing we know: it will not be John Edwards.”
I don’t see the problem with running on a platform of universal healthcare, expanding the middle-class, and mainstreaming relaxed sexual mores.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
First of all, Biden then “walked back” his “i’m not the guy” statement.
Second of all, opening it up to the delegates would be the easiest way to blow up the party. Clinton suporters would demand it be her, and Obama supporters would demand it NOT be her.
Not exactly the exercise in party unity we hoped it would be.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
I’m still holding out hope for Howard.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
How would that be, exactly? McCain’s already assailing Obama as wanting to tax your electricity and that’d be the only attack that’d (somewhat) logically flow out of Gore’s 100% clean electricity by 2018 challenge. Gore can pointedly call on the media to make direct questions to McCain as to whether his plan will reduce CO2 emissions — ask whether McCain’s willing to negotiate with other nations to tackle the global problem, etc. None of that is particularly controversial, and since it’d be Gore attacking and not Obama, questions like, “how you gonna pay for that, smartypants?” would be a lot less germane.
The first question Obama would receive if he chose Gore would be “Do you support Al Gore’s goal of no fossil fuel use by 2018?” His answer, presumably, is no, since it’s pretty unrealistic as government policy and potentially hugely expensive. So immediately he has to distance himself from his running mate’s position on his signature issue. And Obama’s distancing would (a) piss off the environmental base and (b) still allow McCain to point out to swing voters that Obama’s running mate is such a crazy treehugger that even Obama thinks his plan is nuts! Believe me, this will be a bigger media issue than whatever McCain’s environmental policy is.
Gore took himself out of the equation when he proposed abandoning fossil fuels within ten years. He clearly has a different role in mind for himself, and more power to him.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
In terms of Clinton, throwing it to the convention means it’s Clinton only if Clinton wants it. Which is not at all clear. Even then, it might be touchy – Clinton doesn’t have a majority of the delegates, so it’s unlikely she’d win on the first ballot.
BTW, I suggested this a couple of months ago, only to get shot down by the combined wisdom of the Daily Kos. See here.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Gore took himself out of the equation when he proposed abandoning fossil fuels within ten years. He clearly has a different role in mind for himself, and more power to him.
Gore proposed taking fossil fuels only out of electricity (and that’s not even really the case… he wants American electricity to be carbon-output-free, not carbon-free). I wish he’d staked a bolder challenge, but he didn’t, and his relatively milquetoast challenge (that won’t make a dent in the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions needed to meet any of the various goals bandied about) wouldn’t be the slightest burden on an Obama candidacy.
You’re completely uninformed on this. Gore’s challenge has just about zilch to do with abandoning fossil fuels other than coal (which could still be incorporated with CO2 sequestration if that ever works out), and the number of times I’ve seen people totally misinterpret his challenge is ridiculous… I don’t know if the problem is in how it was reported or if folks just assumed they knew what he’d say without reading the speech or his press release or whatever… he was quite clear at the time, and I interpreted it as a huge cop out to avoid looking like he wanted to tax gasoline (and thereby place the same burden on folks supporting his plan that you’d think he’d place on Obama).
August 20th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Since it’s being widely reported that Obama and his Veep choice will appear together at big rally in Springfield, IL on Saturday, that’s going to be a pretty good trick to pull off – unless he brings along all the convention delegates with him to Springfield.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Dick Cheney. You know it has to be.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Does anyone seriously think that Gore would be interested in being the Vice President for 12 (possibly 16) years of his life? Besides, he doesn’t deliver any new voters or regions, he’s not a particularly effective attack dog, and the media hates him.
August 20th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
How did Wesley Clark get X’ed out of consideration? It can’t be his non-attack on McCain a few weeks ago right? Because everything he said was legitimate. He really seems perfect – executive experience in the military – an overall more impressive and much more LEADERSHIP based military career – and I think he was in the top 5 of his West Point class, as opposed to the bottom 5 in Annapolis McCain. Picking CLark would also DRAW attention to his comments that McCain’s being a POW does not qualify him to be President — a point that needs to be made.
MATT — you should plug the co-POW’s anti-endorsement of McCain from the other day on military.com.
August 20th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Undoubtedly, the best think about a Gore pick would be the huge f-you it would send to the media and the Republican party. The media’s dislike of Gore is completely unhinged and I would love to shove him down their throats. It might risk losing the presidency but Obama-Gore in the White House would be simply awesome.
August 20th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
What about Matt Santos?
August 20th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
I thought after having a unity rally in Unity and all the cutsie stuff, Obama would just pull out all the stops and have it come down to a reality-show cum convention. Each night, Obama would nominate two to be voted off and then the delegates and the folks at home would get a chance to vote for the one they wanted to stay. And someone won’t get a rose, or a flag-pin, or something at the end of the night. That would get people to watch the convention for sure. Though it would also further alienate the over-60 crowd who wouldn’t get the joke.
August 20th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
And mlk wins the thread.
August 20th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
So I have a somewhat nutty idea – Lincoln Chafee?
August 20th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
I’m betting on Chuck Hagel. Obama was feeling him out during their trip to Iraq. Running with a Republican would reinforce his post-partisan agenda.
It’s going to be Hagel.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
I’m Obama’s running mate!
August 20th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Spartacus wins the thread.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Jayhawk Max:
Does she have any foreign policy experience? Has she done anything in her gubernatorial tenure to distinguish herself?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Sebelius
She seems better than Hagel or the other names being floated.
August 20th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Matt: “So presumably everything we know is wrong.”
As long as “we” is YOU, that’s probably right.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Open VP balloting may be the most interesting bogus scenario of the last 72 hours.
Speaking of which: I can’t recall such frenzied speculation over such an extended period about prospective running mates. Breaking news about the timing of announcements?!Do we chalk this up to the 24/7 news cycle run amok, political talking-heads desperate to get some airtime during the Olympics, August doldrums?
August 20th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
I have come to the conclusion that no matter who Barack picks for VP, they had better be ready to come out swinging a fucking flour bag at McLame and his wiener VP at every opportunity. Mr.’s Vanilla and Peach hold no candles to Biden and (gulp) Clinton in this respect.
This is an all out war for the soul of America, not an Interior Design contest. Barack needs to suck it up and put the best fighter on his ticket, cause it’ll be coming from all sides.
Remember “The 300″, folks?
January 22nd, 2009 at 10:24 am
laptop battery
laptop batteries
March 1st, 2009 at 6:29 am
viagra
Excellent site. It was pleasant to me.
March 2nd, 2009 at 5:56 am
levitraIf you have to do it, you might as well do it right
March 22nd, 2009 at 6:32 am
tramadol
It is the coolest site,keep so!
March 22nd, 2009 at 10:38 am
buy viagra online
Excellent site. It was pleasant to me.
April 9th, 2009 at 8:18 am
I want to say – thank you for this! viagra
April 14th, 2009 at 9:38 am
I rarely comment on blogs but yours I had to stop and say Great Blog!!
viagra