The Politics of Iraq in Iraq
It’s natural for Americans in the midst of a Presidential campaign to look at something like the Iraqi SOFA agreement primarily through the lens of American politics. But it’s real political significance is going to be found in Iraqi politics where the U.S. military presence looms much larger as an issue than it does in the United States. In particular, this is undoubtedly a triumph for Nouri al-Maliki. He’s managed to continue securing the short-term security benefits of an American military presence, but now without bearing the costs of being a supporter of an unpopular long-term presence. And beyond that, Maliki’s now succeeded through politics at doing what al-Sadr and various Sunni resistance groups couldn’t achieve through force of arms — he’s made the Americans promise to go!
The fact that it’s such a huge coup for Maliki, however, also tells us something important about American strategic options. We almost certainly could try to use our leverage to manipulate the situation in favor of staying in Iraq for quite some time now. The agreement contains wiggle-room and of course no agreement is self-enforcing. But we see here that to succeed in Iraqi politics, one needs to take a line against an open-ended American presence. And that means that any effort to stay for the long term will have a certain pushing-the-boulder-uphill quality to it. The United States is probably strong enough to prevent ourselves from being flattened, but we’re always going to be working against the natural contours of the situation and probably earning ourselves more new enemies than new friends.
20 Responses to “The Politics of Iraq in Iraq”
Register
RSSLogin
Topic Cloud
ArchivesBlog RollAbout Matt YglesiasContact Me
Donate
August 21st, 2008 at 2:17 pm
The politics of Iraq in Iraq I’m curious about is how easy will it be for Maliki to get this withdrawal deal through their Parliament? Obviously we don’t know the details yet… but will it just roll right through, or are there hardliners who can hold it up for, say, more concrete timetables or something? I don’t really have a grasp of how much Maliki has consolidated power at this point.
August 21st, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Soooo….
Iran wins? (not sure if the neocons really thought this thing through)
August 21st, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Ahh, but what nefarious thinking underlies the current agreement? There are two impending flash-point actions, either of which has the capacity to rekindle the civil-war violence, render moot these agreements and quite probably result in the collapse of the Maliki government.
First is Kirkuk. Unlike the more nebulous and multi-faceted Sunni-Shia disputes covered in such a simplistic manner here, this is Arab/Kurdish/Turkman nationalism in play and is considered a matter of survival. And there’s no clear path that avoids a rather serious bloodletting.
Second is the Maliki government’s clear intention to marginalize, disband and eliminate the so-called “Awakening Councils”. Maliki believes that with his ascendant military power along with the covert lethality of the Badr Corps militias, he can effectively dominate the Sunni insurgency. He is wrong.
Both parties know that one or both of these disasters are poised to happen, and soon. Both know that anything they agree to today will be abrogated by these events. The US Administration would like to see the status quo survive at least until the election in November, but at this point it is Maliki’s decisions and actions that will decide the events and the timing.
He is in control, and seems perfectly willing to play a very risky game.
Keep both hands inside the ride at all times, as it is going to get very bumpy again…
mikey
August 21st, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Speaking of Iraq, at 27 years of age, it is still not too late for you to enlist to do your part in a war you supported.
Think about it.
March 1st, 2009 at 7:44 pm
cialis
Incredible site!
March 11th, 2009 at 5:13 am
Incredible site!
March 11th, 2009 at 5:15 am
shudmwok duighp ywqr ysgbar yzfm gjdz wonydcx
March 13th, 2009 at 12:11 am
I want to say – thank you for this!
March 22nd, 2009 at 6:34 am
tramadol
I want to say – thank you for this!
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:29 am
I bookmarked this site. Thank you for good job!
cheap brand pfizer viagra
April 9th, 2009 at 8:30 am
I want to say – thank you for this! viagra
April 14th, 2009 at 9:39 am
Excellent site, It was pleasant to me.
viagra