The Point Guard Who Wouldn’t Shoot
America’s quest to regain basketball hegemony took another small step forward today as we we beat Angola 97-76. Angola, however, is kind of the sorry case of FIBA basketball. The system requires an African team to be in the games, and all the African teams sucks, and recently Angola has consistently gotten into the big tournaments (Olympics and FIBA World Championships) despite having a sub-par team.
Thus despite the win, I see two red flags here. One is that Team USA’s three point shooting was subpar, just 5-21 despite the fact that it should be easier to hit the shots from FIBA distance. Clearly, neither China or Angola was able to defend against us effectively anyway, but we know that some FIBA teams can put a good packed zone together that you need to be able to pick apart with three point shooting.
A related concern would be that thus far in the tournament our starting point guard Jason Kidd basically isn’t shooting at all. Against Angola he scored zero points on zero shots and took no free throws. Under a certain (wrong) conception of a “pure point guard,” Kidd is now approaching a Platonic ideal of brilliant play. But realistically, playing offense against a tough defense is hard when one of your players doesn’t shoot at all. It can get especially problematic against a true zone because, again, you really need your perimeter players to be able to knock the threes down to keep the defense honest. We have two very good backups for Kidd in Chris Paul and Deron Williams, so there’s not necessarily any need to panic over Kidd’s new nonshooting persona, but it gives me pause.
45 Responses to “The Point Guard Who Wouldn’t Shoot”
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August 12th, 2008 at 11:49 am
“and all the African teams sucks,”
but…but…
(and, it’s good to see that Harvard grammar followed you.)
August 12th, 2008 at 11:52 am
I’ve appreciated Kidd’s talents, but I also think his mediocre outside shooting has been an underappreciated weakness for most of his career. He’s sorta’ the Chad Pennington of point guards, exceedingly savvy, but with a pronounced physical limitation which sometimes makes things too easy for opponents.
August 12th, 2008 at 11:53 am
It’s hard to argue that this team is all about winning when Jason Kidd is on the floor. You can’t fault Team USA for his initial inclusion when Paul and Deron weren’t as accomplished, but the insistence on playing him when there are two better options is going to cause us problems. As you stated, he can’t shoot at all anymore, his defense is now below average and his one advantage of being a gifted passer is negated by zones that are beaten by a succession of passes and not the one brilliant pass.
If this was China we would have forced Carmelo and Kidd to fake injuries and replaced them with Agent Zero and Mike Miller at this point. And probably would have had Beyonce lip-syncing the national anthem over a track from Jennifer Hudson as well.
August 12th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Welcome to my doomed Maverick fan world…
August 12th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Kidd will shoot when he needs to, and I have sufficient confidence in his court generalmanship (is that a word?) for him to do so without destroying offensive flow. He’s just accommodating all that firepower and all those egos. I bet the coach is totally behind it.
August 12th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Given Kidd is the starting point guard in name only it really doesn’t matter. Not only do you have Paul and Williams but also James, Bryant and Wade. Kidd is there for defense (yeah that’s a stupid thing) and his rebounding and outlet passes.
August 12th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Kidd is there for his leadership. That’s not needed against Angola.
Nonetheless, if you watched the China game, tell me who was the point guard on the floor for the run in the second quarter that turned a close game into a typical US blowout? Jason Kidd.
Kidd is more interested in running the offense and getting others involved. But Jason can shoot the three and will make them – if he has to. He’s actually a better shooter than Chris Paul, and only slightly worse than Deron Willians. We just haven’t yet played a game where he’s had to make shots.
BTW, the idea that Chris Paul is a better defender than Jason Kidd is ludicrous. Paul is a horrible defender. He’s small and he has no ability to keep guys in front of him. People who think Chris Paul is a good defender are probably basing their assessment of defensive ability solely by looking at the number of steals.
(I acknowledge that I’m a Jason Kidd apologist. Nonetheless, the points I make are correct.)
August 12th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Kidd not shooting or scoring has been much less of a problem so far than Kobe’s inability to throw it in the ocean. He was 0-8 on 3s today, so without all of his bricks, the US would have been a respectable 5-13 on 3s. And Kobe was 1-7 on 3s against China. So if you’re looking for someone to blame so far for their shooting woes, it’s Kobe.
On the other hand, some of the other top teams are having bigger problems so far. Argentina already lost to Lithuania a couple of days ago, and Spain barely beat China today, having to come back from 14 down starting the 4th quarter just to force OT.
August 12th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
The USA hasn’t gone on this losing streak for lack of talent – it’s because they were playing pickup ball when everyone else had a team. Kidd is the anodyne for that problem. However, I think now more than ever that there’s a case to be made for a permanent national coach and a semi-permanent national team just to make sure that guys know how to play together for more than a month before the tournament.
August 12th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
BTW, I completely agree with Matthew regarding the 3-point shooting. The main problem here is that the team selected by Colangelo doesn’t have shooters. The team’s one alleged shooter – Michael Redd – shot only 36% from 3-point land last year. A lower percentage than Jason Kidd (on almost the same number of attempts).
For some reason, Colangelo didn’t choose to bring an actual good three point shooter like Mike Miller (over 43% from the arc).
Moreover, you have guys who are only mediocre 3-point shooters, like Kobe, jacking them up from all over – even while defended. If I were coach, I’d bench anybody who took a contested jumper. That should never, ever, ever happen with this team.
August 12th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Al, did you see the China game? I thought the US showed good discipline in which 3s they took. It seemed like almost all of them were open looks on catch-and-shoot, with almost no forced or contested 3s, so maybe Coach K has already gotten through to them on that. The problem was they were still bricking most of them.
August 12th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
No, Kobe’s 3-point shooting was subpar, as he missed all eight tries.
Everyone else was 5-of-13, 39 percent – not great, but a definite improvement from Game 1.
(Whoops – I see, too late, Haggai beat me to this sentiment.)
August 12th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Haggai – yeah, they were a bit better in the China game as compared to the exhibitions. I’m basing my opinion re shot selection mostly on the exhibitions – I thought the shot selection in the exhibitions was horrible. (I only watched some of the first quarter of the Angola game this morning; will watch the whole game tonight.) Still, I don’t think Redd is the shooter they need – he’s 3 for 9 so far in the two games.
Do you think Kobe’s poor shooting is due to him being tired? I do. (Actually, I thought he was kind of worn out in the Boston series – but that could possibly be attributed to the Boston defense; you can’t blame Kobe’s shooting today on the Angola defense.)
August 12th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I’m not sure why Kobe is bricking everything. Maybe the emphasis on catch-and-shoot is detrimental to him overall, since he’s usually been more of a shoot-off-the-dribble type. But in that case, I don’t know what the solution is, aside from cutting his minutes.
The next two games for the US, against Greece and Spain, should definitely be a real test for them, so let’s see what happens there before we overanalyze the two blowouts they’ve had so far.
August 12th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
I think not shooting is the least of Kidd’s problems. In fact, it’s a great illustration of why Kidd was a great point guard even when he shot a low FG% in the NBA. On his NBA teams, he was the one taking the low-percentage shot when no other shot was available. Now, you can get a LBJ fadeway any time, so there’s really no reason for Kidd to shoot anything but open layups. The problem is not having a guy on the court who doesn’t shoot, it’s having a guy on the court who shouldn’t be shooting.
Kobe taking 8 threes in 18 minutes of play is ridiculous. This is the same problem that’s plagued the US for years–they’re not used to catch-and-shoot, and yet every game they say, “sooner or later those open looks are going to fall.” Year after year of failure in international play blamed on bad shooting luck.
As for having no shooters–there are plenty of guys who can hit the international 3. Wade, Williams, Kobe, LBJ, and especially Redd can all hit it. But they’ve never had to sit at the 3 pt line and wait for the ball. It’s a very different shot and the way they talk, they don’t seem to fully realize that. I would have liked to see an actual catch and shoot, camp at the arc, 3-point specialist like Jason Kapono on the team.
August 12th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
“I’m not sure why Kobe is bricking everything.”
Anyone who’s watched Kobe play has seen plenty examples of him jacking up ridiculously poor shots and, largely because of that, laying a bunch of bricks. You just forget all that when Kobe goes on one of those unstoppable rampages where he can hit any shot from anywhere on the floor.
Poor shot selection is one of the defining weaknesses of American players. Not just in taking bad shots but in not understanding what shots they should be taking, even when wide open. Kobe isn’t a great three point shooter but will not hesitate to miss three after three after three.
Mike
August 12th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Wait, what.
2008
Player: FG%/3P%/FT%/TS%/eFG% (Bold means higher)
Kidd: .385/.381/.818/.499/.460
Paul: .488/.369/.851/.576/.524
True, Kidd has a higher 3P%, but Paul still beats him in effective FG%, probably because Kidd’s overall FG% is so low that it drags down his eFG% and your assertion that Kidd is a better shooter.
And just because you mentioned him:
Williams: .507/.395/.803/.595/.544
August 12th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
I think it’s strategery. Prevent upcoming opponents from adjusting their game in practice. He’ll shoot when they need it and probably not before. Though I’m sure he’s shooting a lot in practice.
August 12th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Now you know how us Mavs fans feel, watching that abominable trade go down and powerless to stop it.
August 12th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
“For some reason, Colangelo didn’t choose to bring an actual good three point shooter like Mike Miller (over 43% from the arc).”
Colangelo’s decisions are kinda weird. I understand the need to commit to players if you want them to commit to you over the three year grind, but still…
This team is vulnerable. Whether or not any other team has the talent to take advantage is a question, but they are vulnerable.
And they’re vulnerable for the lack of some veteran role players to complement the superstars.
If I were Colangelo, I would’ve left Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Paul home, and brought in some guys like, say, Mike Miller, James Posey, and Bruce Bowen who can hit from outside.
(Howard and CP3 are sorta useless in the FIBA game, and ‘Melo is just a poor man’s LBJ. You can leave Boozer home instead of Howard, if you just like Superman.)
Colangelo should have approached things as though he had a nine man roster, with three open slots to fill at the last moment with needs based guys. I’d assume many non-superstars would be willing to come at the last moment for the exposure and attention.
August 12th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Leee, I may not have been clear; when I wrote “shooter”, I meant outside shooter. I think 3P% is a better proxy for that than the other numbers. CP3, for example, drives the lane extremely well and takes (and makes) a lot of layups, giving him the high overall FG%. Kidd, OTOH, hardly ever shoots layups, and even when he does, he’s an awful layup shooter (blah, get ready to watch Kidd miss layup after layup – I don’t understand how he misses so many).
But CP3’s ability to drive and score layups is diminished against the packed in zone (although the ability to drive and kick out to a wide open shooter, which Paul is also good at, is important). It’s Paul’s poor shooting of open 3-pointers that’s problematic. If Kobe or LeBron is driving the lane against Spain’s zone, I would rather have Kidd than Paul sitting wide open outside at the 3-point line (and I’d rather have Deron than either).
August 12th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
I’m not sure why Kobe is bricking everything. Maybe the emphasis on catch-and-shoot is detrimental to him overall, since he’s usually been more of a shoot-off-the-dribble type. But in that case, I don’t know what the solution is, aside from cutting his minutes.
The solution is, perhaps, not to have Kobe on the team at all. The US would be better served by having a permanent national team of mid-level NBA players, whose skills are specifically tailored to the international game, and who play year-round friendlies and international tournaments to hone those skills, master the international style of play and become a well-oiled and cohesive unit.
This is one area where my very small reservoir of national chauvinism makes itself felt. The United States invented basketball, and it’s a perfectly fine game played according to the rules followed by the NBA, an American basketball league that is light years ahead of any other professional league in the world. I don’t see why the rest of the world feels such a strong need to jerk around with the rules to adapt the game to tall and immobile wing players who are great jump shooters and spot up shooters, but who can’t create shots in the lane, can’t play defense and can’t rebound. But if that’s the way they want to do it, then maybe the cost of that choice is that they don’t get to see Kobe Bryant and LeBron James in the Olympics or in world championships.
August 12th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
I think folks are focusing a bit too much on the numbers here. Petey mentioned not bringing Carmelo and Paul to China. But those two have been extremely effective in our international games over the last year. Now Dan says not to bring Lebron and Kobe. Kobe has been our best individual defender. This doesn’t mean much agains China and Angola but agains Spain or Argentina it’ll be huge. Also LeBron has been simply ungaurdable in international play of late. We can play him at 2, 3 or 4 and he just wrecks havock. Because Dwight Howard is such a bad free throw shooter, late in close games Bosh is going to be playing center and either LeBron or Anthony will be our power forwards.
August 12th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Al, if I remember right, Henry Abbott wrote something during the playoffs on Chris Paul’s defense, in which he analyzed a ton of stats, watched a bunch of tape, and talked to a few scouts. The verdict was that Paul is about average, overall: good at disruption and steals, average at not getting his ankles broken, and below average at closing out, and other off-ball things that aren’t steals. The scouts rated him somewhere betweeen 5th and 15th among point guards. (Which makes his 2nd-team all-defense this year totally ridiculous.)
Does that make him better than J-Kidd? I don’t know. I’d say Kidd’s pretty average defensively now, too, if you count defensive rebounds as part of defense, which I would. Kidd seems like a smarter defender at this point, and that’s probably what you want in the Olympics. On the other hand, Team USA is really into pressing and forcing turnovers, and Paul is awesome at that.
Offensively, I’m a Kidd apologist too. He’s like a basketball savant — there’s no situation in which Kidd doesn’t make your offense function better. I wonder if Matt has any evidence for his claim that it’s “wrong” to think a point guard doesn’t have to score. I’m not saying I know either way, but our gracious host seems to be a little overly dismissive of pure point guard play. In a situation like this, where the other 4 guys on the floor are big scorers who want their shots, I think it’s a good idea to have a pass-first point guard.
But, Chris Paul can be a pass-first point. He can score and he can pass. I’m sure that in the Olympics he’d be willing to shoot a lot less than he does in Charlotte.
I don’t think it matters much who starts. As long as CP3 and Deron Williams are getting more minutes than Kidd, we’re OK.
August 12th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Petey, I see your point, but there’s no way CP3 is “kinda useless” in any set of rules. CP3 is fine if the U.S. does what I’ve always said they should do and play uptempo all the time (to Coach K’s credit, they seem to be doing that more than ever).
You want to play to your advantage. The U.S. advantage is speed, athletecism, open-court basketball skills. Don’t stock the team with Euro-types who aren’t as good as the Euros anyway (didn’t we have Brad Miller for a minute? Ugh).
By the way, what is the deal with Michael Redd? How does a guy making a living as a shooter without actually being a very good shooter? Al was right, Mike Miller would have been a much better choice.
August 12th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Dan Kervick, you’re insane. Did you watch the world championships last year? Kobe and LeBron were our best players. LeBron is the best player in the world under any set of rules, and under international rules, he’s suddenly a decent 3-point shooter. He’s even playing a little center right now.
August 12th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
i think the reason kidd is playing is because the US team quite clearly wants to play an up-tempo game: defend, turn the other team over, rebound, and break. he’s obviously lost a step since his prime, but kidd is still great in that style–as is chris paul.
the biggest obstacle to a US gold is a disciplined team that can stay out of the track meet and hit open jumpers. given the importance of zone defense, greater talent doesn’t always guarantee victory. in this respect, the international game is very much like the college game that MY abhors.
August 12th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Angola, however, is kind of the sorry case of FIBA basketball. The system requires an African team to be in the games, and all the African teams sucks, and recently Angola has consistently gotten into the big tournaments (Olympics and FIBA World Championships) despite having a sub-par team.
Awww… come on. Lay off Angola. According to the current FIBA rankings they are #14 in the world behind %13 New Zealand and ahead of #15 Turkey and #16 Russia.
If you want to complain about an undeserved team making it into the Olympics, talk about #33 ranked Iran which qualified as the Asian Champion.
In any event, if you bounce Angola and Iran out of the Olympics the only higher ranked teams to replace them with would be mid-Euro teams like Serbia, France, and Italy. I’m not sure that would have necessarily made the tournament any more interesting.
August 12th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
I rarely agree with Matt Steinmetz but I think he is spot on here on why the US players have been such poor 3-point shooters. Basically the length of the international three is a shot that is never taken in the NBA. Players spot up behind the three point line or 4-5 feet inside of it, just just a foot or two. Maybe something to think about.
August 12th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
I don’t know enough about international basketball to have an opinion, but if it’s true that “all the African teams suck”, that’s pretty interesting. The favorite anti-Affirmative-Action taunt of the right is that the NBA is largely black, and nobody objects to that, so it must just be simple meritocracy (meaning genetics) and so everything is determined and we should all shut up. And yet, in real life, an entire continent of black people can’t field a competitive basketball team! It’s as if things have social components or something.
August 12th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Who (or what) dumped my D Wade comments/question @400ish. Why are y’all ignoring his return to health & championship form, and the contributions he is and will be making to the ReDeem team?
August 12th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
What has really surprised me is the contrast between Kobe and D-Wade. Kobe may be playing great D, but his O is horrible–seems like he can’t hit a Euro 3 to save his life. Meanwhile, Wade is shooting out the lights and playing like the last 2 years never happened. LeBron is playing like a beast as well (that block vs Angola was straight-up nasty).
August 13th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Actually, that’s not true. Angola and Mozambique are the basketball power houses in Africa, which is why they were (kind of) able to hols their own against the US. Since you’re paid to do this, I’ll let you do the research, and maybe learn a thing or two.
Peace.
August 13th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
isn’t this why Mullin is on the team?
August 13th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Jason Kidd is the Christian Laettner of the 2008 team.
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