Russian Cooperation on Iran
Ross Douthat offers some sound criticism of what he rightly terms Max Boot’s “unrealpolitik” with regard to Russia. I wanted, however, to take on one specific argument Boot advances that Ross kind of glossed over, namely the question of Russia and the Iranian nuclear program. Boot says that on Iran “Russia has been more hindrance than help. It has helped Iran to develop its nuclear program and it has been selling Iran high-tech surface-to-air missiles. Russia has gone along grudgingly with weak sanctions at the UN but, along with China, it has blocked more robust action.”
This business of tallying up Russian actions and trying to decide whether they are, on balance, more help or hindrance is the wrong way to think about it. The right way to think about it is to consider the range of options available to Russia. At one margin, Russia could do everything it is Boot would like Russia to do. At another extreme, Russia could send Iran a gift basket full of working nuclear weapons — or maybe a bunch of the guys who build Russia’s nuclear weapons could head to Teheran suitcases full of blueprint and fissile material. In the real world, Russia is clearly positioned between those extremes. And over time, Russia’s posture has shifted. In the future, Russia’s posture could shift further in either direction. Thus, when we think about our relationship with Russia, it behooves us to consider the implications of our actions for Russia’s attitude toward the Iranian nuclear program. This remains true whether or not you think Russia has been “on balance” on the right side of the issue.
21 Responses to “Russian Cooperation on Iran”
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August 13th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
So, in other words, it could be worse and we shouldn’t do things that will likely make it worse.
Great advice.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Before following Max Boot’s suggestions and sending AA and AT missiles to Georgia, keep in mind that the Ruskies probably have have ways of making those same things available to the iraqi militias.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
The cold-war neocons now get to join the islamnofascist neocons in a joint priapic celebration (that the viagra/cialis warn about that are dangers if displayed more than three hours). What a coalition! Lances at the ready!
But I’d bet that those erections will disappear real quick when the bear swats those big paws and claws in their direction. Maybe they think those military cargo planes Bush has sent to Georgia for ‘humanitarian assistance’ will be filled with special forces troops?
The Balkans were bad places for the west pre-WWI: just wait until we’re up to our waists in Kossacks in the Caucausus. Talk about ‘unruly’….LOL
August 13th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
How about we send Das Boot riding one of those missiles? Or just give him a rifle and send him to the front, the brave brave piece of shit.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
How about we send Das Boot riding one of those missiles? Or just give him a rifle and send him to the front, the brave brave piece of shit.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Matt, must you illustrate your posts on Russia with that huge-ass photo of a bear? I am no fan of Putin or Russian foreign and domestic policy, but being Russian, I think the photo is kind of offensive and really immature. It doesn’t do justice to your posts.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
OoOoOo GRATZ! On the ThinkProgress pickup Yglesias.
I glad to see they were able to find a BlueDog to help keep screwing us with war cheer leading that you have done with Iraq and I am sure will do with Iran. Your such a hawk and a big tough manly man!! (snark)
I guess they don’t have any kind of tests just have to be a douche.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
The problem with your solution is that it is too long term. Neo-cons only think in months, where long term is thought of as a Friedman Unit(6 months).
Matt, you are thinking beyond 6 months. Wayyy tooo long for any credibility with war mongers.
As you pointed out, we tell Russia to FU, and arm Georgia to confront Russia as our next “shill” nation, or we thing real long term and realize that there are way bigger problems than Georgia, and that with those problems, we need Russia’s help, rather than their hinderence to what the world thinks is more important.
On a side note, I am in the belief that King George found another sucker(Georgia), led them on by pushing for NATO membership, and telling them that the U.S. was his buddy, and George NEVER anticipated that all his BS would be taken seriously today.
August 13th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
I see no problem with the bear image, or why it should be ‘immature’.
I just don’t understand comments like those from ‘blah’ above. The value of blog articles like these–quite priceless in my view–is that it helps us to think clearly about the issues. There is plenty of accessible good information–the main problem lies in the kind of degenerate thought processes that the uni-polar hubris has encouraged.
The idea of thinking about things seems to have gone right out of fashion and replaced by reacting to news reports with quick (forceful) fixes.
August 13th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
It is a nice picture of a bear. And what would Matt use for a picture of Georgia? He’s already used the Tiblisi McDonalds.
August 13th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
BTW. why shouldn’t Russia assist Iran’s nuclear program? That’s what it is SUPPOSED TO DO under the NPT – assist non-nuclear nations that wish to develop nuclear energy technology.
Of course, it’s also supposed to disarm itself of nuclear weapons – as is the US. But there’s nothing in the NPT that says Russia can’t assist Iran. The US is supposed to be assisting Iran. Instead, the US and the West in general spent thirty years trying to prevent Iran from developing nuclear energy which is why Iran went to the black market. This is also why Iran will not accept any nuclear fuel consortium that doesn’t include a fuel recycling plant on Iranian soil. They simply can’t trust the West.
Russia and China both know perfectly well why the US is pressuring Iran. They both know perfectly well that it has utterly nothing to do with a supposed Iranian “nuclear weapons program” and everything to do with oil and gas and war profiteering. So they play the game of going along with pressuring Iran to be “more open” about its program, while at the same time attempting to stymie the US attempt to launch another war for the benefit of US corporations. There isn’t much Russia and China can do to stop the war, but they can make it clear to the world that when it starts, it was entirely the fault of the US by derailing the various attempts to “frame” Iran.
I have an email acquaintance who thinks the US will not attack Iran because Russia will militarily support Iran. I don’t think Russia is prepared to go that far – although Putin reputedly did tell Ayatollah Khamenei during his visit that Russia would back Iran against the West over this issue and view an attack on Iran as an attack on Russia.
Certainly Russia could give Iran considerable covert assistance in the event of a US attack. But I don’t see Russia treating an attack as a direct military confrontation with the US.
Both Russia and China – especially China – can turn the screws on the US over an Iranian attack, however. China needs Iranian oil and gas, and allegedly has considered putting a Chinese naval base on Iranian soil. China can also retaliate against the US economy, which would already be near collapse as a consequence of an oil spike caused by an Iran war.
So the notion that Russia and China can somehow be pressured into supporting the US on the Iran issue is just ridiculous. Not only do they know the issue is bogus, they have no incentives to go along with the neocons in Washington, especially after this business in Georgia.
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