Long-Expected Shoe-Dropping
Russia officially recognizes independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Frankly, I’m a little surprised it took them this long. They threatened to take this step if the U.S. recognized Kosovo’s independence, which we did, and then Georgia attacked South Ossetia giving them an adequate pretext, and then Russia launched a counter-invasion and did a bunch of stuff that I would have considered going beyond the recognition step.
Note that as of a couple of weeks ago, Charles Krauthammer and Robert Kagan and such would have had us believe that short of strident anti-Russian measures by the United States, Russian tanks were about to pour into Kiev, Warsaw, and Helsinki. In practice, the Bush administration’s done nothing meaningful to stop the Russians from having their way with Georgia but the consequences for the wider world have been less than dramatic and everyone’s now more interested in the pseudo-event in Denver.
26 Responses to “Long-Expected Shoe-Dropping”
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August 26th, 2008 at 9:22 am
It’s not really about tanks rolling into Kiev as much as Russia retaking the Crimean peninsula which they strongly believe is theirs. But again, there as in Georgia, there’s not much we can do about it short of going to war. Which, again, we won’t, because at the end of the day, we care a lot less about the Ukraine than the Russians do.
August 26th, 2008 at 9:22 am
If only we had someone as tough talking and big mouthed as John McCain, this never would have happened.
August 26th, 2008 at 9:24 am
What I miss is hearing the old Soviet Anthem. Can we bring that back, but not the Cold War?
August 26th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Re Matthew’s comment “the consequences for the wider world have been less than dramatic and everyone’s now more interested in the pseudo-event in Denver.”
————–
Hmmm. Obviously, Matthew has a bright future in rape counseling if this blogging thing doesn’t work out.
August 26th, 2008 at 10:13 am
It should actually pointed out Tanks were rolling through the streets of Kyiv on Sunday. Granted it was for the independence day parade, but still. Pictures can be found here for those interested – http://armthepeasants.blogspot.com/2008/08/you-and-whose-army.html
Still I have to take issue with Matt’s continued take on the whole Georgia conflict. He’s had basically two arguments so far
1.) Neo-conservative commentators have somewhat hyperbolically pointed out that the war may be a signal of future military threats in Europe. Neo-Conservatives are almost always wrong, therefore there is no impending threat in Eastern Europe from Russia.
2.) The war in Georgia is not terribly important, mainly because I and most other American media commentators are not terribly informed about Georgia.
A slight simplifcation maybe, but it gets to the gist. On point one, Matt has been great at documenting the utterings of Krauthammer, Kristol and Ko. but has been oddly silent on such important Russian political figures such as Sergei Markov who have been very open in declaring that Ukraine is next in the Kremlin’s line of sight for the past few weeks. He’s also ignored what the end of the BTC pipeline means for Caspian Sea energy policy, NATO’s strategic access to Afghanistan and indeed the end of several decades of general recognised norms in International Relations.
Granted this would require Matt to do research and critical analysis rather than just stick to the ‘neo-cons are always wrong’ rule. It would also force him to consider, that even though he and the majority of America’s media elite are covering the Veep-Stakes/DNC Convention/Latest Clinton hissy-fit with obsessive rigour, they just might not be the most important stories out there.
August 26th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Gee Matt, you mean that because you and the rest of the news media have stopped covering Georgia in favour of obsessive scrutiny of the Veep-Stakes/Conventions/Latest Clinton Hissy fit, it suddenly has very little bearing on actual international policy? Wow, that’s a relief. Do you think we could schedule another Presidential election when say, the Taliban retake Kabul or the Chinese invade Taiwan. It’d be a pretty useful way of defusing tensions.
And for those interested, there actually were tanks on the streets of Kyiv on Sunday. Granted they were for the Independence Day parade, but still…
August 26th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Well, hopefully Dick Cheney can start a little sideshow and add some drama to the RNC convention.
August 26th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Hey, that missile defense shield in Poland might come in handy!
August 26th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Matt’s right. Georgia’s “territorial integrity” is a meaningless phrase, since Georgia has had no control over those enclaves since – well, since everyone decided that the Soviet Union’s territorial integrity was meaningless – and by the action of its nutty president, it has sealed its own fate. As for the Ukraine being next, that is a joke, right?
The U.S. is peculiarly disqualified from getting on a high horse about Russia in this instance, for reasons we all know. But the neo-cons, who have been infuriated by Putin’s war against their favorite kleptocrats, have been looking for a handle to beat Russia with for years – witness the dull dithering of the Washington Post editorial board and op ed columnists about Russia.
These same people, of course, looked with delight upon their own chosen Russian leader, Yeltsin, as he invaded Chechnya. And they looked very far away when the ultra-suspicious “terrorist” acts committed by the Chechnians in 1999 (Chechen acts that just seemed to involve FSB men) put Putin firmly in place, because at the time they believed Putin would insure the stolen fortunes of the Russian billionaires club. Well, Putin turned out to be stronger than the neo-cons liked. Tough luck. The U.S. should have absolutely no interest in helping Georgia retain two enclaves that have long rebelled against being part of Georgia. We should be interested in the fact that the Georgian government apparently believed the bs ladeled out to them by the Cheney faction in the ever more ridiculous Bush administration.
August 26th, 2008 at 10:55 am
U.S and NATO naval assets amassing in Black Sea …
August 26th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Hmmm, Cindy goes to Georgia on the day Russia twists the knife, how nice. Is that what McCain intended?
August 26th, 2008 at 11:03 am
“Russia officially recognizes independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.”
What does the UN think? Oh, that’s right Russia doesn’t consult with the UN. They just act unilaterally.
August 26th, 2008 at 11:29 am
We should be careful not to confuse a slowing of the timetable with a real change of the situation. Putin may act to consolidate his gains from this conflict, but that doesn’t mean he has to do it at a speed and pace that will satisfy western bloggers and 24-hour newschannels.
As for Abkhazia and S. Ossetia, that was just inevitable. Georgia has no functional control over them. Its territorial integrity was already lost.
August 26th, 2008 at 11:37 am
What does the UN think? Oh, that’s right Russia doesn’t consult with the UN. They just act unilaterally.
Well, that’s lazy and stupid, but to be more accurate they control a veto on the security council. That makes a logjam where Russia will accept the French proposed ceasefire that doesn’t have territorial integrity language. The U.S. made that whole concept a joke pretty much on it’s own. Everyone else thought it was a good idea, but from conflicts from Western Sahara to the Occupied Territories where our client states had something to gain or just our own ability to have feel good stunts like Grenada or grand idiocy like Iraq we threw that out years and years ago and sound stupid even trying to pretend that we care about it.
August 26th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
What I miss is hearing the old Soviet Anthem. Can we bring that back, but not the Cold War?
Already done! The Russian national anthem, since 2000, has had the same tune as the old Soviet anthem, though different words.
August 26th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
“I think after Russia, we will be recognized by, for example, Belgrade, for example, China, and maybe Syria, and also Belarus,” said Alexei Sanokoyev, 23, an analyst for the South Ossetian government’s foreign policy department, which has covered its broken windows with clear plastic sheeting.
“And Cuba, of course,” he added.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/26/world/europe/26ossetia.html?ref=europe
Those are some kick ass countries there. South Ossetians should be stoked.
August 26th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Well the Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia’s flagship and sole aircraft carrier is in port in Damascus, possibly negotiating such an agreement now.
Still it would be hugely interesting if the Chinese did recognise South Ossetia. Largely due to their own conflicts with Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang (and terrible human rights record) they’ve tended to emphasise sovereignty and territorial integrity as the bedrock foundations of international relations. I could be wrong but I’d guess that unless a situation developed where general international recognition of the two republics was forthcoming, China would be in no hurry to recognise.
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