Krauthammer: Russia Must Leave Georgia by 2014 . . . Or Else!
You wouldn’t expect Charles Krauthammer to turn in a sensible column ever. In particular, you really wouldn’t expect him to turn in a sensible column about the Russia-Georgia war. But I feel like today’s effort is an uncommonly silly one. Through his powers of clairvoyance, Krauthammer discerns that Russia’s “real objective is the Finlandization of Georgia through the removal of President Mikheil Saakashvili and his replacement by a Russian puppet” which reveals, among other things, a pretty fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of Cold War Finland. But Krauthammer darkly warns that the Finlandization of Georgia will let “Russia become master of the Caspian basin” (oh noes! the Caspian basin!) and then this, through magic, would lead to “re-establishing Russian hegemony” throughout its “former Baltic and East European satellites.”
I don’t know how many different ways there are to say this, but to think that Russia’s ability to detach two miniature provinces that don’t want to be ruled from Tblisi from a tiny country with a GDP of $20 billion will suddenly lead to Russian hegemony over, say, Poland with its GDP of $620 billion is daft.
But beyond all that, considering the high stakes Krauthammer thinks we’re playing for, his proposed remedies are pathetic. One, he wants to “suspend the NATO-Russia Council” that nobody’s heard of but that apparently was founded in 2002. Second, he wants to block Russian entry into the WTO which is already being blocked. Third, he wants to kick Russia out of the G-8. And then we get this:
4. Announce a U.S.-European boycott of the 2014 Winter Olympics at Sochi. To do otherwise would be obscene. Sochi is 15 miles from Abkhazia, the other Georgian province just invaded by Russia. The Games will become a riveting contest between the Russian, Belarusian and Jamaican bobsled teams.
All of these steps (except dissolution of the G-8, which should be irreversible) would be subject to reconsideration depending upon Russian action — most importantly and minimally, its withdrawal of troops from Georgia proper to South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Basically, Krauthammer thinks that it’s extremely important to American security for Russia to withdraw forces from Georgia proper and his idea of a good way to make them do that is to . . . threaten to boycott an Olympics (note that this didn’t work in 1980) . . . that’s happening six years from now. That would seem to me to give Russia plenty of time to muck around in Georgia. Indeed, I see no indication whatsoever that Russia so much as aspires to have its forces in Georgia proper by 2014; certainly it won’t take them anywhere near that long to finish wrecking Georgia’s military. This seems to me to be an excellent example of what (via Dan Nexon) Jack Snyder calls “The Myth of the Paper Tiger” whose adherents hold that:
[Enemies are] capable of becoming fiercely threatening if appeased, but easily crumpled by a resolute attack. These images are often not only wrong, but self-contradictory. For example, Japanese militarists saw the United States as so strong and insatiably aggressive that Japan would have to conquer a huge, self-sufficient empire to get the resources to defend itself; yet at the same time, the Japanese regime saw the United States as so vulnerable and irresolute that a sharp rap against Pearl Harbor would discourage it from fighting back.
That sums up Krauthammer’s view perfectly. If we don’t stop Russia from having its way with Georgia, next thing you know the entire Soviet sphere of influence will be reconstituted, but Russia might be coerced into backing down by mild gestures.
76 Responses to “Krauthammer: Russia Must Leave Georgia by 2014 . . . Or Else!”
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August 14th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
not to worry, by then it will be Sochigrad
August 14th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
For a better read of the Georgian conflict vis-a-vis Finland, check out this blog post by Rob Prince, a long-timer activist and International Studies professor at the University of Denver.
August 14th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
threaten to boycott an Olympics (note that this didn’t work in 1980)
It didn’t work immediately in 1980, but it was a long term strategy. In fact, the 1980 boycott is likely the most proximate cause of fall of the USSR, a lesson the Russians have learned well…
August 14th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
You might have hit on the strategy of the Neocons, in their constant attempt to find a monumental, Western civilation threatening enemy. The obvious Neocon response to your “Myth of the Paper Tiger” is that you are right – it is silly to try to stop a power like Russia with “mild gestures.” Therefore, according to Neocons, we must be more aggressive and use whatever means necessary. Thus, we who believe that Russia is not an existential threat to the United States or Europe, must focus our arguments on Russia’s relative impotence, not the mildness of certain solutions.
August 14th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
What’s especially galling about the insane disjointed rhetorical position that Matt points out is the notion that we of sound mind nonetheless have to tip to that point of view.
One hears the sort of thing that liberals have to show toughness, hence propose things like expanding the military, throw Russia out of this or that forum, etc.
August 14th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Krauthammer obviously ate the brown acid. Sadly, I read the column, but only because nobody else has proposed any response to the situation beyond mere bluster. Now I know why.
August 14th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
“not to worry, by then it will be Sochigrad”
Oh noes! Sochigrad! The Russians will call the city of Sochi the “City of Sochi”! What’s next? Nizhny Novgorod? Volgograd?
August 14th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I can’t understand why exactly all these guys want Russia out of the G8. It’s an informal forum. Kicking Russia out is both so unlikely to be impossible – are France, Germany and Italy all going to agree to go along with us? – and unlikely to do anything besides riling the Russians up and ending a source of dialogue. In a sense, we’re lucky this conflict happened before the election to expose McCain’s insane views on relations with Russia.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
So, at a minimum, a reversion to the status quo ante, would be fine with Krauthammer.
That’s what I’m reading, right?
August 14th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
To be fair to Krauthammer, he admits up front that we aren’t holding any good cards. But even if we’re holding lousy cards, he says we should play them anyway. I didn’t see the part where he said it would work, just that we should play the cards we had, regardless.
I’d be open to correction on this score, if accompanied by quotes.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Re Charles Krauthammer
Did anybody notice that Dr. Krauthammers’ column took a swipe at Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi
(And if Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi, who has been sympathetic to Putin’s Georgia adventure, wants to stay, he can have an annual G-2 dinner with Putin.)
This is amazing considering that Mr. Berlusconi is the most pro-Israel leader in the EU. Has Dr. Krauthammer decided that Georgia takes precedence over Israel in his estimation?
August 14th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Love the picture.
The best part of Krauthammer’s piece today is how he says we don’t have to kick Russia out of the G-8; we’ll just disband it and form a G-7! Love it!
August 14th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Krauthammer is a tool’s tool but the Caspian region’s role in this mess is deserving of more examination. The Republican Oil Party (including Mssrs. Cheney and Baker of Baker Botts) have been eyeing the natural gas in the Caspian region since before Bush took office. I’m just a hack blog commentor but I even think some of the right-wing opposition to a revised Law of the Sea treaty comes from Caspian energy politics. The Caspian’s status is neither a sea nor a lake at the moment and I think that resolving the status has the potential to kill the prospects of Western energy investment in the Caspian region.
I don’t imagine Russia wants Western interests poking around in the Caspian energy business and they are trying to sour the investments as simply as possible. Bashing the crap out of Georgia is probably the simplest way to convince it’s near neighbors that making future deals with BP isn’t the smartest move.
It’s too bad Dave Chappelle isn’t on TV because I’d love to see Black Putin talk about Georgia and cooking oil.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
If Kraut’s not even going to advocate occupying Georgia to deter future Russian advances I’m just not even going to bother with him anymore. What a pussy.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
“Mein Führer! I can walk!”
Kraphammer doesn’t actually know the results of the last bobsleigh competitions, does he? Not many Americans on the rostrum. Can’t see the Swiss pulling out, either. A US boycott would just make NBC and Dick Button sad.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Why is Kraut so sure that the Europeans would follow us in boycotting the Winter Olympics? That is the time when many smaller European nations – like Norway, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Austria, and the Netherlands – really get to shine.
The whole of the Caucases is not worth a bronze medal in ice dancing.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
People are looking at me, wondering why I’m laughing. I’m laughing because of this:
Stupid fucking comic-book conservatives. No sense at all.
.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Matt, I can’t believe you didn’t mention his final suggestion:
And then send him Platoon to show what happens when we really get serious.
Kraphammer doesn’t actually know the results of the last bobsleigh competitions, does he? Not many Americans on the rostrum.
To be fair, he was talking about a US-EU boycott, which presumably would include Canada as well.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
I can just see it now …
“Look, we tried to resolved this peacefully by boycotting the Olympics. Since that didn’t work, we have no choice but to invade Siberia and turn it into West Alaska.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
It’s possible that Krauthammer may not enjoy being alive as much as the rest of us. So he’s not risking as much.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
To be fair, he was talking about a US-EU boycott, which presumably would include Canada as well.
Well, if he’s making shit up, he can include Australia, the Philippines and Mars in that boycott, because it’s not going to fucking happen.
And it looks as if Kraphammer didn’t make it to the end of ‘Charlie Wilson’s War’ — the bit where ‘Wilson’ asks for money to build schools — or perhaps he’s internalised the idea that there was no connection between leaving Afghanistan out to dry after 1989 and more recent events.
August 14th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
I think we have seen that boycotting the Olympics, the Winter version this time!, is pretty worthless, stupid and cutting of thy nose to spite thy face.
August 14th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
the 1980 boycott is likely the most proximate cause of fall of the USSR
Is this a joke?
August 14th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
I don’t want to be presumptuous, but I would imagine Georgians would kill to be in Finland’s situation. They’re a tiny country with one of the highest standards of living in the world, a vibrant economy and all the benefits of cutting edge modern technology. Booze is bloody expensive, though.
August 14th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Of course not. The 1984 LA boycott likely forestalled the fall of the USSR by another couple years…
August 14th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Thats why they all go to St Petersburg to get drunk. Hotel hallways knee deep in vomit and passed out Finns.
I keed because I love.
August 14th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
Small point here… but Krauthammer knows that Georgia has no Caspian Sea coastline, right? Of course he does.
August 14th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
I agree that the right wing and most of the media are going over the top about what Russia’s invasion of Georgia means. However, it does not exactly become the blogger left to turn the whole thing into a joke or to mock any attempt at a solution.
Yeah, Krauthammer is a contemptible figure and his ideas are generally worthless. But the fact is that Russia has attacked another nation and is causing massive damage and inflicting terrible casualties there. This is a big deal, people, and the US had better apply some kind of pressure on Russia about this.
A military response on our part is clearly off the table, no matter what John McInsane might think, but what then? The kinds of proposals Krauthammer makes are actually the sorts of things we need to be pushing forward. Russia has become a bad actor and they need to be treated as such until their behavior improves.
Discussing a boycott of the 2014 Olympics now is a natural. Krauthammer is absolutely right that allowing those Olympics to proceed without Russia seriously making amends would be obscene. Most of the nations of the west joined us in our boycott of the 1980 games. It was a major embarrassment to the USSR. Clearly a lot can change in six years, but talk of a boycott now to me is beyond reasonable.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Rob Mac – you ARE aware that the Georgians attacked South Ossetia first? And tried their damndest to kill a half battalion of Russian troops there at the invite of the Ossetians?
August 14th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Butch, yes I am. But that doesn’t mean I’m prepared to give Russia a free hand in dealing with Georgia. I don’t know of anyone who isn’t calling the Russian response disproportionate–unless you are, that is.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Sort of. Using irregulars is still attacking. Russia doesn’t just send in the troops when it wants to stir shit up.
Matt, Russia is nothing like the West. Being important in European politics and history, which Russia is and has been, does not make you part of the Western mainstream. China is important to the American economy, but it’s not American. The Huns had an impact on the Roman empire, but they weren’t Romans. Etc etc etc. I continue to be amazed that anyone thinks you are an astute thinker, given that you so rarely show any real sign of thinking at all.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Matt, Russia is nothing like the West. Being important in European politics and history, which Russia is and has been, does not make you part of the Western mainstream. China is important to the American economy, but it’s not American. The Huns had an impact on the Roman empire, but they weren’t Romans. Etc etc etc. I continue to be amazed that anyone thinks you are an astute thinker, given that you so rarely show any real sign of thinking at all.
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August 14th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
I just knew Petey was going to lose it sooner or later.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
TH – The pipelines that pass through Georgia terminate in the Caspian so Krauthammer isn’t that far off-base. The Caspian itself isn’t worth fighting over, it’s the energy that comes from the Caspian region. Georgia is very much linked to that energy or at least attempts to bypass Russia to access that energy.
August 15th, 2008 at 12:06 am
Rob Mac: “I don’t know of anyone who isn’t calling the Russian response disproportionate–unless you are, that is.”
Count me in as not calling it disproportionate.
Putin claims the following:
I’d say if any of that is actually true, I’m not surprised that Russia intends to beat the crap out of Saakashvili’s troops. Only Russia is allowed to beat up Russian civilians, just like only America is allowed the screw American citizens.
August 15th, 2008 at 1:05 am
Another problem with Krauthammer’s approach is that it’s not even in the US’s power to freeze Russia out of existing frameworks of international cooperation. To do so (say in G8 or with respect to the consultation process with NATO) the US needs other countries to go along. But such support isn’t forthcoming from some of the key players.
Sarkozy went to Moscow, Merkel is meeting with Medwedew today in Sochi (this was scheduled before the outbreak of the crisis, but wasn’t cancelled), the Turkish prime minister visited with Putin earlier this week. So these countries (and presumably others) want to keep the channels open. The US can’t isolate Russia without the support of such players, but they’ve already implied their unwillingness to go along with any such project. The US should stop pissing against the wind if it wants to avoid further embarrassment.
August 15th, 2008 at 1:33 am
“I don’t know of anyone who isn’t calling the Russian response disproportionate–unless you are, that is”
Hmm, I wonder. If the Cubans attempted a sneak invasion of Gitmo,in the process massacring marines and non-combatants alike, how “proportionate” would the US reaction be? I reckon there’d soon be more rubble in Havana than there currently is in Tbilisi.
Of course Putin has for years been quietly saying to Shaakashvili “Do ya feel lucky, punk? Well do ya?” . But the fact is that the stupid punk did feel lucky. He thought – apparently wrongly – that he, not Putin, was the one who had the Magnum (in the form of Uncle Sam’s oil-motivated backing).
As for Bush saying that it is unacceptable for one country to invade another to overthrow its government, the laughter from that line is still ringing around the world. At least the Russkis aren’t quite so brazen in their hypocrisy.
August 15th, 2008 at 8:59 am
I get that Krauthammer is an asshole, but there are a couple thousand Ossetians dead, and the tanks still haven’t pulled back across the border. Doesn’t seem all that funny.
August 15th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Richard,
The Russians control the region. They control information flow. If those atrocities happened, there would be reporters there talking about it in definitive ways. I haven’t even seen anything that could be considered evidence of atrocities in the English language version of Pravda.
From this link:
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2008/08/13/russia19620.htm
it seems very likely that the reports of 1500 dead civilians in Tskhinvali is a wild exaggeration, with the real number being around 100. While the Georgian army almost certainly did target civilian areas indiscriminately (just like the Ossetians and then the Russians), they didn’t do it close to the magnitude the Russian propagandists are claiming. The Russians are trying to claim Tskhinvali was another Srebinica. It wasn’t.
August 15th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Actually Njorl, most of the information being printed in the US press seems to be coming from the Georgians – not surprising considering that the US has been providing a lot of training and aid for quite a few years and there’s plenty of US diplomatic and military personel runnig around.
Remember? There were a lot of US soldiers over there carrying out joint manuevers with the Georgians in July.
Not that the US diplomats and soldiers running around Georgia actually did any good – like noticing the Georgians were preparing to attack S. Ossetia. And given the reports that the Georgians ran like rabbits when the Russians hit back I’d say the Georgians should demand that the US compensate them for “military training designed to create a public nuisance”.
August 15th, 2008 at 11:23 am
That’s immaterial. Just beccause the Georgians are almost certainly lying or exaggerating for propaganda purposes doesn’t mean that the Russians and Ossetians are telling the truth. During war, you don’t trust the information coming from either side. That’s why I included a link from Human Rights Watch, and not a link to the Georgian press.
August 15th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Finlandization? Krauthammer must not have heard about the Russo-Finnish War (aka The Winter War). In fact, in that war, the Finns became the only nationality to have fought a war on skis. Beat that!
August 15th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Therefore, according to Neocons, we must be more aggressive and use whatever means necessary. Thus, we who believe that Russia is not an existential threat to the United States or Europe, must focus our arguments on Russia’s relative impotence, not the mildness of certain solutions.
Nah, the neocons will never advocate a course of action that requires real effort and sacrifice by them. They scoffed when Zinni said that 500,000 troops would be required in Iraq, and opposed any further additions of troops. They’re not for militarization per se, just in favor of the blustering use of force. They’d never advocate for the reinstatement of the draft, for instance.
August 15th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Njorl: ” I haven’t even seen anything that could be considered evidence of atrocities in the English language version of Pravda.
From this link:
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2008/08/13/russia19620.htm
it seems very likely that the reports of 1500 dead civilians in Tskhinvali is a wild exaggeration, with the real number being around 100.”
Okay, try this:
Mikheil Saakashvili: War Criminal
http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=13304
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