Georgia on My Mind
I was glad to be not blogging when the John Edwards story broke, but sorry not to have had the chance to comment on the outbreak of war between Russia and Georgia. To me, the beginning of wisdom here is with Porfirio Diaz’s lament — “poor Mexico, so far from God, so close to the United States of America.” Diaz’s insight is perfectly general: A small and poor country located close to one great power and far away from other great powers is in a bad situation (of course ask Poland about being located between two great powers …) and that’s the situation Georgia is in. Perhaps a closer analogy in the present-day context would be to Cuba, like Georgia a former favorite vacation destination for the great power’s elite, a country we’ve been horribly mistreating for decades for no real reason. And when you think about Cuba, you see that the vast majority of the world’s countries basically support the Cuban position vis-à-vis the American one. And yet absolutely none of them are prepared to do anything about it.
In a broader sense Steve Clemons raises the good point that the government of Russia made it pretty clear that if the United States recognized Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia over Russian objections that Russia would retaliate by stepping up support for separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This doesn’t seem to have given any of Georgia’s outspoken friends in the United States any pause. Indeed, strong pro-Georgian views in the U.S. media and foreign policy community correlate heavily with strong pro-Kosovo views. This highlights the fact that the underlying issue here is simply a disposition to take a dim view of Moscow and to favor aggressive policies to roll back Russian influence rather than some kind of deep and sincerely felt desire to help Georgia.
Except Georgia’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili, perhaps seems to have been confused by the fact that he gets great press in the U.S. and Vladimir Putin gets terrible press. Thus, he made the puzzling decision last week to escalate the “frozen conflict” by launching an attack aimed at retaking South Ossetia. Russia, predictably, is now retaliating with results that look set to be disastrous for Georgia. I thought James Traub’s backgrounder on the Georgia-Russia conflict had a few problems, but this was a great summary of the basic irrealism of the Georgian outlook on the problem:
When I asked Temuri Yacobashvili, a cultivated man who is one of the country’s leading art patrons, why Georgia couldn’t focus on the threat from Russia and let the Abkhaz have their de facto state, he said, “These are not two different things, because it’s not amputating hand, it’s amputating head, or heart. No Georgian president could survive if he gave up on Abkhazia.” And, he added, “if the international community by its inaction will not leave any other option for Georgia, then we have to make decision.”
If the West, that is, won’t induce Russia to stop using the border region as a pawn, Georgia will be left with no choice save war. And how will the West do that? Mr. Saakashvili suggests sanctions, like travel bans, on individual Russian leaders. When I posed the same question to Giga Bokeria, another confidante who is deputy minister for foreign affairs, he said, “If Russia ceases to be an empire.” These are not serious answers.
By the same token, Washington Post columns and editorials fulminating against Russia’s counterattack are not serious. I think that if Russia were to recognize its enlightened self-interest it would realize that it should abandon its imperial posture in the “near abroad.” But if Russian officials don’t see things that way, there’s nothing we can really do to make them see it that way.
Meanwhile, Americans would do well to abandon some of the moralism that infuses commentary on this. Fundamentally, Russia is supporting the claims of Ossetians and Abkhazians for reasons of cynical power politics. But the American perspective on this is also mostly driven by reasons of cynical power politics. And there’s nothing really wrong with that. Georgia wants to cultivate American friendship so it makes sense to reciprocate. In the current moment of crisis, we should try to back our ally up. But we should also remember that in the scheme of things, Georgian territorial integrity is not the most important item on the US-Russian docket — getting Russia to do what we want vis-à-vis the Iranian nuclear program is way more important than getting Russia to do what we want vis-à-vis Georgia. Is that fair to the Georgians? Of course not. But they have the misfortune of being far from God and close to Russia.
33 Responses to “Georgia on My Mind”
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August 10th, 2008 at 10:49 am
You really think a desire to help Georgia is incompatable with a dim view of Moscow, and rolling back Russian influence? Those goals scarcely conflict if you think Russian influence is bad, rather than neutral or good.
No, amoralist whining aside, we’d do better to live up to our moral position, rather than abandon it.
August 10th, 2008 at 10:56 am
No comments on Edwards?????
I think a “What will Petey Do? Part II” is totally appropriate.
August 10th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Plenty of folks support Georgia for reasons other than “cynical power plays.” Frankly, I have lots of sympathy for countries that don’t oppress their people, especially in conflicts against those that do. Especially when, as in Georgia’s case, its transition to democracy came amidst some awfully trying circumstances.
Frankly I think the United States should be in the business of supporting more freedom around the world. And in terms of Russia and Georgia, it’s not even close.
August 10th, 2008 at 11:26 am
What’s been interesting to watch is the transformation of the left’s international stance: from one of moral international politics to one of pre-WWII “America First” amoralism. All while pretending that it’s somehow not the case.
August 10th, 2008 at 11:37 am
You forget one important moment: ethnic cleansing. Kosovo would not be a state today had Serbia not tried to cleanse the province of Kosovars. Abkhazia today is a majority Abkhaz “state” only because the Abkhaz were able to “cleanse” the area of Georgians, who made up the majority of the population before the war.
Ossetia is more complicated in that Ossetes were had a plurality of the population, but the area was mixed among a handful of Caucasian peoples, with Georgians coming in second.
At a minimum, there are moral reasons not to support an Abkhaz state (insofar as morals matter in international relations). I’m more agnostic on Ossetia.
August 10th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Georgia’s hands in the ethnic cleansing business aren’t exactly clean. its not like Abzkhazia and South Ossettia seceded in 1992 for no reason — the Georgian’s elected a very nationalist government that made it quite clear it would serve the interests of ethnic Georgians.
Also its kind of silly to pretend that the borders of the Georgian SSR which were drawn to include Abzkhazia and S.O. for Stalin’s administrative convenience are sacrosanct in the transition from Soviet state to independent country.
There just isn’t a clear moral position regarding these situations. Georgia is a pretty nasty state even if its not Russia.
Practically, Russia has made it quite clear that it will defend its sphere of influence as best it can – so unless you are willing to commit rather serious U.S. resources to Georgian control over territory that has been de facto independent since the early 90s (I wouldn’t be) then Georgia is just going to have to lose. It was a serious mistake of us to encourage them in the first place.
August 10th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
The scary part of all this is that there was a move underfoot to include Georgia in NATO. If this had already been accomplished, then NATO would have been faced with a decision to intervene and considering the nuclear capability of Russia, this would have placed the alliance between a rock and a hard place.
August 10th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
I was glad to be not blogging when the John Edwards story broke
But where else can we see Petey’s reaction?
August 10th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
John McCain wants to turn the South Ossetia War into a major US-Russia confrontation, because John McCain understands the horrors of war.
August 10th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
I thought the line about Mexico being far from God and near to the US was from Lord Acton, not Porfirio Diaz? Or maybe historic figures only get one great quote and Acton already has his?
August 10th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Vis-a-vis? You do not that doesn’t mean “versus”, right?
August 10th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Could you elaborate on what your misgivings with Traub’s piece were ?
August 10th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
How is pointing out we lack any adequate tool to make Russia do what we want our help Georgia “America First amoralism”? Real morality is getting people to do what is actually possible. Moralism is just making yourself seem good and making you feel good about yourself by pounding your chest. The moralists completely ignore logistics and only deal with abstracts. We had the logistics of war in WWII (bombing Germany, etc.). We aren’t going to start bombing Russia and Europe is too dependent on Russia for energy to support anti-Russian sanctions. We need Russian cooperation on things like loose nukes, which are more important to American national security than South Ossetia.
August 10th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
I don’t get Matt’s whine about the excessive moralizing in the US over Russia’s action (now including an invasion of Georgia proper). Excessive moralizing is goes hand and hand with international relations, it’s the aspect the US is probably best at. And, given the thuggish state of Putin’s Russia it takes hard work for it to get excessive.
August 10th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
It seems Master Y is back early from the dude ranch.
A lot of traffic out on the range this time of year I guess.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:14 am
Sorry, but Russia is not going to be any help with Iran. Russia has been Iran’s single largest friend in the world for at least a decade, and the arrangement suits the needs of the two not-very-well-liked powers very nicely. That Russia would throw that away just because we ask them to–pretty please with sugar on top–is a touching (and oddly persistent) fantasy of the US foreign policy establishment. The US is much better off with the countries that actually share its values and want its friendship. A democratic and whole Georgia safely ensconced in NATO and on the path to the EU would be a major step forward for the region and for us–militarily, economically, socially. Think progress, Matt!
August 11th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Thank you for bringing the proper perspective to this issue. My related complaint about the coverage–which was particularly present in the Traub article–is that the media has trouble deciphering Russian motives because they all believe we are in a “post-power politics world,” as though somehow geo-politics died along with the Soviet Union. Of course, there is no empirical reason to believe this is correct. Russia is acting to ensure subservient states on their border (a not entirely fanatical position given their history), while the United States is acting to create pro-Western bulwarks around Russia to constrain future Russia action. The US is correct to act to constrain Russia, but as we repeatedly discover their is little we can do to deter Russia in their (very) near regions (a problem France and Germany discovered at different points when they tried to ally with Mexico against the U.S.).
August 11th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
I can understand the US-Russia relationship being important for a number of reasons, especially those involving disposal of loose nukes. But is Russia’s vote for another round of largely ineffective Iranian sanctions really that big a necessity for America?
August 11th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
You really think a desire to help Georgia is incompatable with a dim view of Moscow, and rolling back Russian influence? Those goals scarcely conflict if you think Russian influence is bad, rather than neutral or good.
Russian influence isn’t bad or good, it’s a given. They are a great power with nuclear weapons and if they want to have a spehere of influence, there isn’t much we can do about it (just as the only way the USSR was going to be able to keep nuclear missiles within our sphere of influence in the 1960’s would have been to start a disasterous war with the US).
Indeed, a strong Russia is actually much better for the US than a weak one. A weak Russia is much more likely to exacerbate the loose nukes problem. A strong Russia will check our power and prevent US hawks from starting more disasterous wars and getting more Americans pointlessly killed.
It is true that none of this is particularly beneficial to the Georgian people (though it does help the separatist and pro-Russian elements there). But our reach exceeds our grasp here.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Mexico isn’t a small country by any measure.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
Funny, isn’t it? How the Bush regime is getting all hot and bothered that Russia is using force to invade and inhabit a sovereign nation (on its border, and with hundreds of years of history no doubt), all the while the Bush regime continues to inhabit a sovereign nation with no end in sight? (and which is on the opposite side of the earth) Oh, and where was the outrage when Israel invaded Lebanon a while back? Crazy times….
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