Fuzzy Public Opinion
Faiz flags some polling by Frank Luntz released recently by The Israel Project showing that 55 percent of Americans woud “United States and its allies making targeted conventional military strikes against Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities” a number that goes up to 63 percent if you specify that diplomatic and economic sanctions have failed. This reminds me of David Moore’s point from earlier this month about misleading presentation of polling data on Iraq. You could plausibly read pre-war public opinion as supporting an invasion, which is how it was generally presented, but Moore says that if you pried a little bit deeper you’d get a very different result:
To people who said they favored the war, we asked if they would be upset if the government did not send troops to Iraq. And to people who opposed the war, we asked if they would be upset if the government did send troops. Just over half of the supposed supporters and a fifth of the opponents said they would not be upset if their opinions were ignored.
The net result: Only 29 percent of Americans supported the war and said they would be upset if it didn’t come about, while 30 percent were opposed to the war and said they would be upset if it did occur. Another 38 percent, who had just expressed an opinion either for or against the proposed invasion, said they would not be upset if the government did the opposite of what they had just opined. Add to this number the 3 percent who initially expressed no opinion, and that makes 41 percent who didn’t care one way or the other.
Basically, the center of public opinion was prepared to defer to official policy and not demanding anything in particular. I can’t at all prove it, but I’m almost 100 percent sure that the situation with regard to Iran is the same. Most people just don’t have detailed or strongly held views about the broad range of topics. If the President says bombing Iran is necessary and can find a bunch of people in suits and ties to go on television as “experts” and say that the bombing was necessary for American security, I’m sure a majority would go along with it. But that’s not the same as saying that public opinion is demanding bombing. Probably if you had a president who just never talked about Iran, 80 percent of the public would pay no attention whatsoever to the progress (if any) of Iran’s nuclear program.
31 Responses to “Fuzzy Public Opinion”
Register
RSSLogin
Topic Cloud
ArchivesBlog RollAbout Matt YglesiasContact Me
Donate
August 29th, 2008 at 11:04 am
i’m not going to take the time to look it up now, but if you drilled down into the internals of the pre-war polling, you saw that when people were asked if they favored a war without a large amount of allied support that would result in more than 1,000 casualties (i.e., the war we actually had), roughly 1/3 favored such a war.
just like this other data, and just like we now see.
so i’m with matthew: i’m sure if there were enough options offered to people, we’d discover that there is not some big majority that can hardly wait to bomb, bomb, bomb iran.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:17 am
War is of such minor concern that 41% of the US don’t care one way or another.
I don’t think we can really tell if we’re in Hell or not.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:21 am
I’m sure The Israel Project’s polling data is high quality stuff….
August 29th, 2008 at 11:42 am
In the same poll, Luntz et al asked,
Which of the following would be the appropriate way to deal with Iran’s nuclear program?
Answers in the US:
Direct negotiations 28%
Increased sanctions 27%
Targeted military strikes 24%
Increased diplomatic 19%
So 76% chose something other than targeted military strikes as the best option. Also, for some reason, when they asked this question in the UK and in Germany, they included the fifth option
Do nothing: stay out of the conflict.
10% of respondents in the UK chose this option, and 3% in Germany chose that option. For some reason, US voters were only offered a menu of four choices, which could be expected to increase totals in each of the four.
Here are the poll results:
http://www.theisraelproject.org/atf/cf/%7B84DC5887-741E-4056-8D91-A389164BC94E%7D/POLL%20SLIDES.PPT
August 29th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I’s like to think a majority of Americans know that unprovoked military attacks on other people are, you know, illegal and wrong. I may be overestimating our “values voters” again.
August 29th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
It looks like Olmert or his successor is going to bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1219913194872&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Israel will not agree to allow Iran to achieve nuclear weapons and if time begins running out, Jerusalem will not hesitate to take whatever means necessary to prevent Iran from achieving its nuclear goals, the government has recently decided in a special discussion.
August 29th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Matt, I really liked this post and observation. I believe it approaches the underlying reality of what the conduct of a foreign policy in our representative democracy means. Most people don’t care, not necessarily out of callousness but lack of a meaningful sense of their really knowing what is at stake or what should be done. They depend on the judgement of experts chosen by officials they elect whom they believe have the better judgement and then cross their fingers. And if they do care many are the first to admit on further questioning that they don’t really know enough to have that much confidence in their opinion. The political dynamics though are another thing, for the pols feed these things back at people as evidence or examples of their fine judgement and their opponents’ lousy judgement, and the circus unfolds.
August 29th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Maybe the polling agents should ask this:
“Would you support an attack on Iran, knowing that they would retaliate by blowing up the Saudi Oil fields raising oil to $1000 a barrel and gas to $60 a gallon thus causing a worldwide depression”
December 8th, 2008 at 10:15 am
bobasri
December 11th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
LAS VEGAS — In the opening game of Friday’s Las Vegas Invitational, a smattering of West Virginia fans, including athletic director Ed Pastilong, attended. A nice section of Iowa fans made their presence felt. But in the final game of the
December 31st, 2008 at 1:33 pm
http://www.message_alcelliccoa.com/
March 11th, 2009 at 4:25 am
Incredible site!
March 12th, 2009 at 11:05 pm
If you have to do it, you might as well do it right
March 22nd, 2009 at 6:00 am
tramadol
Excellent site. It was pleasant to me.
March 22nd, 2009 at 10:22 am
buy viagra online
It is the coolest site,keep so!
April 2nd, 2009 at 5:03 am
Excellent site. It was pleasant to me.
buy cheap viagra
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:03 am
Great site. Good info
cheap brand pfizer viagra
April 9th, 2009 at 5:08 am
Excellent site, It was pleasant to me. viagra