Fun With Great Power Conflict
Russia’s flagship, the Admiral Kuznetsov is deploying from Murmansk (Russia’s ice-free port on the Arctic Sea) to the Mediterranean Sea where it will operate out of the Syrian port of Tartus. Apparently Russia and Syria are talking about a Russian naval base going there. Check out the Kuznetsov:
Robert Farley has some analysis. Note that Israel had been deeply involved in upgrading the Georgian military, a relationship the Israelis moved to scale back when they saw the risk of Georgia-Russia war breaking out, hoping to avoid a backlash from Russia. I’ll just observe for now that a downward spiral in US-Russian relations seems much more likely to harm the interests of the United States, of Russia, and of various other countries (Israel today, who knows tomorrow) than it does to actually help Georgia.
20 Responses to “Fun With Great Power Conflict”
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August 21st, 2008 at 12:05 pm
As I pointed out on another thread, what will the Advocates of Aggressiveness do/say when Russia decides to open up a warm water port in Cuba or perhaps some other Caribbean island? Maybe Venezuela? Would a President McCain invade Haiti if this occurred?
Can you see any downside for Russia in ratcheting up tension this way, giving them a huge chit in negotiations over removal of missile defense systems plunked down on their borders?
August 21st, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Not meaning to sound bellicose and all, but the U.S. Navy could sink that tub in a few seconds. The Russian fleet has no experience in extended operations, or operations of much of any sort. They would also be sitting ducks at night because the U.S. Navy is the only one that knows how and has the experience to conduct night carrier operations.
August 21st, 2008 at 12:22 pm
It would be as presumably as expensive and otherwise depleting and unproductive for Russia to have a steroid enhanced, overbloated, white elephant military as it has been for the United States. And it would presumably be as big a strategic blunder for it to get bogged down in the MidEast as it has been for the United States.
Although the Russian’s presumably are also just as capable of being bull headed and gun happy as the United States has been.
But all of this begs the question of what rationale would induce Russia to seek inject it’s navy into that part of the Mediterranean. The jolly good fun of giving the finger to the United States or of making life miserable for Israel doesn’t seem to cut it. Arming Iran should suffice for those purposes. Rather there should be a more solid geopolitical rationale.
And apparently there is one. It has been asserted that that Israel is interested in linking via the Mediterranean to the BTC Oil Pipeline that flows from Georgia. A Russian naval presence in Tartus would directly interdict this link.
August 21st, 2008 at 12:44 pm
While this move is important symbolicly, it’s not out of the blue. The port at Tartus has actually been being refurbished for exactly this for a some time now. See the following for a thorough run-down of the Russian/Syrian relationship:
http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=12568
http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=32266
(mostly the middle section – “The Tilt”)
http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=16064
(primarily the last couple paragraphs)
August 21st, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Thank you. This establishes a clear relationship between the Iraq and Georgia conflicts and lays bare the “young democracy” scam. Can we take a look at the circumstances surrounding the coup that overthrew Shevardnadze in Georgia now?
Because it was based on some pretty thin gruel…
August 21st, 2008 at 2:58 pm
That video is fantastic. I especially liked the juxtaposition of the heroic music with the two men awkwardly struggling into their jumpsuits.
August 21st, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Some nice “Victory at Sea” stuff there (for those who remember that show).
Duncan’s info on the oil pipelines that establish Israel is making a grab for oil as a US proxy (and for its own interests) is clearly more useful.
China has considered – or some analysts believe it has, anyway – putting a naval base on Iran’s southern territories as a means of outflanking India and protecting its enormous investments in Iranian oil and gas.
If somebody doesn’t get on the stick and find a way to start minimizing oil as a necessary component of human energy consumption, there IS going to be a major war – possibly including nuclear weapons – over oil in the next twenty or thirty years.
We should start by crippling the oil companies abilities to influence US foreign policy.
August 21st, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Re Richard’s comment “We should start by crippling the oil companies abilities to influence US foreign policy.”
————
The oil companies don’t “influence” policy — they DECIDE policy. Easier that way. Then all their whores in Washington have to do is make up some lie to justify the acts done to advance that policy.
Something like “defending a young democracy”. Yeah, that’s the ticket. As a bonus, Will make the guys in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan howl with laughter.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:18 pm
You all sound like you’ve been reading too much Tom Clancy…
August 21st, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Tom Clancy follows the news – that’s how he writes books.
Well, that’s how people pay him to use his name to write books, these days, anyway. Has he written a book in years now?
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