Ethiopia Leaves Somalia
Via Eric Martin, Mark Steyn’s thoughts in the immediate aftermath of Ethiopia’s US-backed invasion of Somalia:
One difference between the Ethiopians in Somalia and the Americans in Iraq is that the former aren’t fighting with one hand behind their back just in case some EU ally or humanitarian lobby group or fictitious Associated Press source leaks some “war crime” or other to the media. In fact, the Ethiopians have the advantage of more or less total lack of interest from the Western media. So they’re just getting on with it.
In this he spoke, as Eric documents, for a broad swathe of the American right which uniformly praised the invasion and suggested that its success showed that the US military ought to behave more brutally. Of course, the invasion almost immediately got bogged down in an insurgency battle at which point conservative stopped talking about. The ensuing humanitarian crisis became, of course, much worse for the Somali people than was life under the Islamic Courts Movement. And piracy began to flourish off the Somali coast. Somali Islamists have begun to contemplate an alliance with al-Qaeda. And now the Ethiopians are getting ready to pack up and go home leaving Somalia more radicalized and also more unstable than it was before. This is more or less exactly what skeptics like Eric, Spencer Ackerman, John Judis, etc. predicted at the time when we were greeted with widespread conservative derision by people who decided to stop following the story as soon as the facts became inconvenient.
163 Responses to “Ethiopia Leaves Somalia”
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August 28th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Both sides were right, they just had different goals. To Ethiopia and the American Right, the Somalia operation was a success BECAUSE it left a weak and destabilized Somalia. Conservative foreign policy cannot be understood in terms of a desire to help people. To understand it, you need only ask two questions: “Who are they trying to screw?” and “Did they screw them?” The Somali people got screwed, so it was a success.
August 28th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Shorter Shit Steyn: “yay war crimes! Conrad, do you need your butt wiping?”
August 28th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
I have no opinion on Steyn’s comment re brutality. However, the rest of Matthew’s post is almost completely wrong.
Matthew writes: The ensuing humanitarian crisis became, of course, much worse for the Somali people than was life under the Islamic Courts Movement.
This is clearly incorrect. The Somali people are clearly better off for the Ethiopian invasion than they were before it. Let’s recall that the Ethiopian invasion succeeded in saving the AU- and UN-backed transitional government, which is fairly representative of the Somali people. Now, I know that isolationists like Matthew don’t care about saving representative governments backed by international orgnaizations like the AU and UN. After all, isolationists don’t care about international organizations at all. So Matthew failure to praise the rescue of the international organzations’ project is not surprising. Those of us who really do care about the efficacy and legitimacy of international organizations like the AU and UN, however, believe that it was very important to rscue their work in Somalia – both for the institutions themselves and for the Somali people. After all, the Somalis are much, much better off having the support of organizations like the UN and AU than they would have been becomeing international pariahs under an extremist Islamist government. Matthew would have us believe that life under the ICU was preferable to life under the AU- and UN-backed transitional government, but one merely needs to look at Afghanistan to see how wrong that is. After all, life was much more “stable” under the Taliban government in Afghanistan – and whether a country is “unstable” (to use Matthew’s word) seems to be the lodestar of Matthew’s thinking. But nobody would trade today’s unstable Afghanistan for the stability of the Taliban government – even though that’s exactly what Matthew appears to think is preferable in Somalia.
It is simply unquestionably true that a fairly representative government backed by the international community – be it the Karzai government in Afghanistan or the Transitional Government in Somalia – even given the instability of an insurgency, is much, much more preferable for the inhabitants of the country than would be life under an unrepresentative, non-internationally backed extremist Islamic government like the Taliban in Afghanistan or the ICU in Somalia.
The odd thing to me, in fact, isn’t that an isolationist like Matthew believes that we (and Ethiopia) should have abandoned the internationally backed Transitional Government to be destroyed by an extremist Islamic government under the ICU (given that the ICU was on the verge of winning the war against the transitional government before Ethiopia invaded). After all, isolationists don’t care about the legitimacy or efficacy of international institutions or of other governments. Rather, the odd thing, to me, is that Matthew seems to support the internationally backed government in Afghanistan. The logic of Matthew’s position with respect to Somalia should pretty clearly cause Mattew to advocate abandoning the Karzai government and instead rooting for the Taliban to come back to power in Afghanistan.
August 28th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
After all, the Somalis are much, much better off having the support of organizations like the UN and AU than they would have been becomeing international pariahs under an extremist Islamist government.
This is just daft. There is no material support being provided to the Somali people by the AU and UN that would not be provided under an islamist government.
August 28th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Your assertion is not borne out by the evidence, WillieStyle. While it is, of course, impossible at this point to know the extent to which international organizations would be involved with Somalia under an ICU government, our experience with a different country that was run by an extremist Islamic government – Afghanistan under the Taliban – indicates that the international community would be effectively shut out.
Now, it appears that Matthew thinks that a country governed by extremist Islamists (like Somalia under the ICU or Afghanistan under the Taliban) is preferable to having an “unstable” country facing an insurgency but with an internationally backed, somewhat representative government (like Somalia under the Transitional Government or Afghanistan under the Karzai government). I disagree. But I think it is pretty clear which governments are and would be getting materially more international support.
August 28th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
A major difference between US/Iraq and Ethiopia/Somalia is that Ethiopia has a significant Somali minority, and that the insurgency waged by that minority has sanctuary in Somalia proper.
The Ethiopians may pull out for now, but it won’t take much for them to go back in. When we pull out of Iraq, it’s very unlikely that we’ll be back, even if – to push the argument to its idiotic conclusion – they elect OBL President.
MY might respond that the Ethiopians wouldn’t *need* to dick with Somalia in the first place if they cut the Ogaden loose. However, unlike the US (in general), Ethiopia is organically multi-ethnic, in that it pulled together various nationalities into a state. Once you start cutting some of the nationalities loose, you’re liable to end up with a checkerboard, and hors d’oeuvre for those less concerned with self-determinism.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Fostert, Somalia has been weak and destabilized for the past seventeen years. They really didn’t need the Ethiopians to go in there to help destabilize anything. And Al, the transitional government you’re championing was so ineffective, they were operating outside of their own capital in 2006. Like it or not, the only group that was able to put a stop to fighting and chaos in the past seventeen years were the Islamists. Since 1991 Somalis had been living as Thomas Hobbs put it a “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short” existence, a “war of every man against every man.” Or rather every clan against the other. Given the choice between anarchy and harsh governance, the Somalis were choosing the latter in 2006 and I can’t blame them. Europeans managed to muddle through the Dark Ages and come up with a functioning form of government without the aid of the United States. I’m of the opinion of allowing people to figure out what forms of government work for them. When British rule wasn’t working for us, we cut them loose, similarly when Somalis realize they don’t need the Islamists any more, they’ll do the same. But sending in their oldest enemy to invade probably doesn’t help matters at all.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:45 am
The problem with Al’s idiot notion that Afghans are better off with Karzai vs the Taliban is that Karzai isn’t going to last. The Taliban are going to win the war, the Karzai government is either going to fall completely or be forced to negotiate a power-sharing agreement with the Taliban (which probably won’t last.)
And the notion that Karzai is somehow “representing” the Afghan people is a bit of a joke as well. He was installed by the “international community” (read: the US oil companies) and since then is considered to be nearly impotent. He wouldn’t even be breathing if he weren’t protected by some hundreds of US mercenaries.
In any event, who he “represents” is irrelevant since the Afghan citizenry is not “represented” by anybody. The power in Afghanistan is and has always been in the hands of warlords, drug smugglers and assorted other corrupt scum. Karzai and the US and NATO haven’t changed that a whit – and never will unless they intend to kill off every single warlord in the country – which of course means taking on the entire armed country – a country which has never lost against an occupier.
So who does Al think actually “represents” Afghanistan – the poor Afghan slob or farmer – or the guys with the guns.
This is why Third World “nation building” is a joke.
August 29th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Its a great shame that we are involved in the ethiopian invasion of somalia.
The ethiopians have managed to kill over 15, 000 somalis and displace over 1.5 million people from the capital city.
Amnesty international has reported widespread rapes by the ethiopian army.
We need to distance ourselves from the crimes and the mass genocide that the ethiopians have commited and make sure that it was not the United states that was responsible but rather the ethiopian regime.
Somalia was better off under the islamic courts than its current state today.
I have read that today the country is the worst disaster in the world.
The islamic courts have also last week captured the 2nd largest city in somalia after driving out the ethiopian forces stationed their.
August 29th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Al, have you been smoking something, or have you been watching too much fox.
If you know the history of Somalia, the so called AU- and UN-backed transitional government were hand picked by Ethiopia to represent its interest and the west’s interest as both the president and the then prime minister were long time residents( refugees) in Ethiopia during the the Siad Barre’s regime.
The so called ICU came out of desperation and necessity
See some history from the BBC here
Until ill conceived plan by CIA backfired and catalyzed their meteoric rise. NY Times article
As to
You are correct, AU, UN should be supported to do their work, but what is happening is, they are being arm twisted to be part of the problem.
Below are some examples.
Here is Ethiopia, US and UN planning the invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia 6months ahead of time, against clearly stated rules of UN.
Here is the UN looking the other, while Ethiopia and US broke UN and US sanctions of arms traffic from North Korea, while UN whining about Zimbabwe’s arms purchase from China, that does not break any sanctions.
Here and here are some of the atrocities that are being committed with our help.
Here is US manipulating the powder cake of a situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, in the UN to favour Ethiopia and undermine UN and international rule of law.
So please don’t tell us we are doing things for the greater good of the Somalians or African’s as a whole.
Comparing Somalia to Afghanistan is like Apples and Oranges, you can not jump the gun and try to pre empty the situation, with out understanding what brought the current situation, and what the desires of the people are.
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