Bolton on NATO Expansion
John Bolton on Fox News wants to “get tough” on Russia but, of course, doesn’t actually have any concrete steps in mind that the United States could take that could persuade Russia to withdraw from Georgia in a speedy manner. So he suggests that the Europeans should do something. Specifically, they should drop their objections to Georgia joining NATO:
Whether or not you support NATO membership for Georgia as some kind of long-term measure, this doesn’t make much sense as a short-term strategy for getting Russian troops to leave. For one thing, it’s just not going to happen (a topic to which we’ll return). For another thing, it’s a bit of a Rube Goldberg device — we persuade the Europeans to extend a NATO security guarantee to Georgia and then, with that guarantee in place, Russia has to choose between leaving and war with the United States and we hope they choose leaving. It would be quicker and simpler, albeit insane, for the United States to just straight-up threaten Russia with war unless they withdraw from Georgia. Then Russia needs to choose between leaving and war with the United States, and our plan to use a threat of war to force them out isn’t held hostage to the vagaries of French and German decision-making.
But of course my suspicion is that leaving things hostage to France and Germany is the point of this proposal. Even the John Boltons of the world aren’t genuinely crazy enough to think that threatening Russia with war over this is a good idea. But they always need a “get tough” proposal. So they put this proposal on the table, knowing that European allies won’t go for it, thus allowing Bolton to fulminate against the weakness of the Europeans even as their reasonableness allows Bolton to avoid taking responsibilities for the consequences of his proposal. It’s a nice trick.
37 Responses to “Bolton on NATO Expansion”
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August 18th, 2008 at 9:25 am
It would seem, then, more direct to get to the heart of Bolton’s aims, and removing the middleman of Russia: the U.S. should attack France & Germany. Again. That’ll show ‘em.
August 18th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Are you sure Bolton doesn’t want war? I’m not. Bolton lusts after war the way most men lust after sex.
August 18th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Even the John Boltons of the world aren’t genuinely crazy enough to think…
I’m having a difficult time imagining any end to that sentence that would be indisputably true.
August 18th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Bolton has no credibility when discussing multilateral agreements. His role in the Bush administration was to prevent them being made. He scuppered treaties on biological and chemical weapons proliferation; he scuppered the Small Arms Treaty at the behest of the NRA.
August 18th, 2008 at 9:48 am
a funny from the Russians:
August 18th, 2008 at 9:52 am
Also, from the Membership Action Plan criteria:
Obviously, Bolton thinks that the best way to circumvent those requirements is to have a brief war over an ethnic/territorial dispute. I can’t wait for Azerbaijan to demand NATO membership after a flare-up in Nagorno-Karabach.
August 18th, 2008 at 9:57 am
@pseudonymous in nc:
I was about to refer back to the MAP. I think it is important to realize that Obama is NOT calling for Georgian membership in NATO. He is calling for renewed effort for Georgia in the MAP.
As did Condi yesterday.
Adults do not believe that Georgia should be in NATO tomorrow, next week, next month, next year or even a decade from now without adherance to the MAP.
John Bolton is not an adult. He is a petulant little child whose ’stache gets an erection at the thought of people being blowed the fuck up.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:15 am
While the comparisons to Munich and World War II have been coming from the right for some time, isn’t the relevant analogy to the Georgia-Russia situation, and the expansion of NATO, the diplomacy that led to World War I?
As I understood it, it was the decision of several countries to enter into networks of unwise alliances committing to protect their allies even when their interests in the outcome of a particular crisis were only marginal that created a tinderbox that blew up when a crown prince was assassinated in Serbia.
Giving Georgia that sort of ‘blank check’ seems to be exactly the thing that history tells us we SHOULDN’T do.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Why is this so terrible? Politicians often propose things they know have no chance of happening in order to position themselves on this or that and hit the ball into the opposition’s court.
Instead of whining about how dishonest John Bolton is, why don’t we liberals actually take some lessons from him?
August 18th, 2008 at 10:54 am
There are some interesting forces at work that Matthew doesn’t seem to recognize.
Matthew is focusing almost exclusively on personalities — whereas I prefer the military’s approach of looking at capabilities and the environment vice mere politicans and their possible intentions.
One factor I’ve already noted –Russian fortresses in South Ossetia and Abkhazia would shut off the corridor for Chevron’s export of Caspian oil. From a business investment viewpoint even if not via a definite military action. Prior to this Russia was on the other side of the 16000 foot Cascausian Mountain chain — now it is in the foothills on the Georgian side and overlooking Georgia’s narrow valley plain.
But Russia only has about two months to consolidate those regions — Winter is coming and the Russians of all people know not to be caught overextended militarily as winter sets in.
The US Army Special Forces know how to turn SOuth Ossetia into a winter hellhole if the Russians are careless.
Look at Finland’s war — and that was on flat ground. Would anyone here like to chase white-camouflaged snipers up the side of snow-clad mountains (with very thin air due to altitude?)
Anyone know where the 10th Mountain Division is?
August 18th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Unserious people like you should not be permitted to enter into the public discourse, and anyone who proposes that the United States wage a winter guerilla war against the Russians in Georgia is a patently unserious person.
The same people that shat their pants over the mere possibility that Saddam might acquire a crude nuclear weapon in a generation conveniently forget that Russia can turn the entire United States into a burning cinder if they wanted to.
August 18th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Superb analysis, Matt, bravo.
August 18th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
This is why Obama attracted such a huge crowd in Berlin. Our NATO allies are as tired of these neo-con idiots as we are.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Calipygian: I don’t think Don is proposing that. He’s suggesting that the neocons such as Bolton might well try something like that to escalate the problem.
After all, the US has Special Forces teams inside Iran - and that could blow up in our faces any day now if they get caught.
August 19th, 2008 at 1:02 am
Re calipygian’s comment “anyone who proposes that the United States wage a winter guerilla war against the Russians in Georgia is a patently unserious person….conveniently forget that Russia can turn the entire United States into a burning cinder if they wanted to.”
———
The “entire United States into a burning cinder” comment is bullshit. However, they can burn most of our cities so the overall point — not wise to push the Russians into a nuclear war –is valid. The lesson we learned from Cuban Missile Crisis is that Russia and USA should STRONGLY avoid fucking with each other directly — and certainly US should not screw Russia in its own backyard. Neocons have forgotten that.
I, however, seriously doubt that Cheney and Chevron are going to relinquish the Caspian oil deposits without a fight. Using US troops to attack Russians directly is risky — but I suspect there are a shitload of Georgians from South Ossetia who are pissed off and thirsting for revenge. (close relatives killed, females raped, etc.)
With some training , those Georgians could be sent back into South Ossetia. You obviously can’t create a Green Beret or Navy Seal in a month — but you can train people for some types of attack.
Time is short –by next summer, Russians will have established strong defenses and their occupation will become a fait accompli. The talk about pressuring Russia by holding up things like WTO membership is bullshit — nothing EU or USA can offer or take away from Russia remotely equals the value of Caspian Oil. Plus let Peak Oil progress 10 more years and the EU will be willing to suck Putin’s cock if that’s required to get oil shipments.
Anyone familar with my past posts knows I myself would not recommend fighting the Russians in Georgia — I am simply trying to figure out the possible options and constraints on both parties in this fight. Huge amount at stake –but also possible risks for huge disaster if thing get out of hand.
August 19th, 2008 at 5:33 am
Hell, Bolton has no credibility when discussing mustaches. The curtains definitely don’t match the drapes. He also has no credibility when discussing proper stapler use (Rule No. 1: When throwing at a subordinate, whip it like a fastband, don’t underhand it like a softball. You get extra points if you actually staple your employee.)
November 12th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
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