74 is the New 72
Incidentally, I’m kind of surprised by the number of people I’m reading who seem convinced that Joe Biden would be too old to run for President in 2016 at the age of 74. John McCain is running for president right now at the age of 72, and though voters do seem to have some concerns about his age it’s hardly a crippling disadvantage. What’s more, to the best of my knowledge Biden, unlike McCain, doesn’t have a history of cancer or physical ailments stemming from years of captivity and torture. From an actuarial point of view, Biden-at-74 will almost certainly have a longer life expectancy than McCain-at-72. What’s more, given population trends the country as a whole will be older in 2016 than it is in 2008. Obviously, a million things could happen that prevent Bidenmania from sweeping the country in 2016, but if Obama wins two elections and Biden stays in reasonable health (big ifs!) I don’t see what’s stopping him from running.
31 Responses to “74 is the New 72”
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August 23rd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Biden can’t run at 74 years old because he’s never been a POW.
Case closed.
August 23rd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
It’s not the age, it’s the senility. If McCain could remember what he said yesterday, I wouldn’t worry about his age. And age is a different thing for different people. Given my family’s medical history, it is highly unlikely that I will live to McCain’s current age. But given McCain’s family history, he will likely live for another 20 years. But he probably won’t remember any of it.
August 23rd, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Agress with fostert, it’s not the age but the competency when it comes to McCain. If Biden start exhibiting a consistent string of memory lapses and idiotic gaffes in the twilight of his VP years a run in 2016 will be considerably more difficult.
August 23rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Didn’t Biden have some sort of brain hemorrage 15 or so years ago?
August 23rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Peter: I believe it was in 1988, shortly after his presidential bid failed.
Biden is a selection very much in the Cheney mode, it seems to me – a (supposedly) wiser elder statesman, older and much more of an insider than the presidential candidate, somewhat unlikely to run for President at the end of eight years, and from a state with only three electoral votes. The last is particularly notable; the once-potent desire to pick a running mate who can carry his home state seems to be dead.
August 23rd, 2008 at 2:00 pm
James:
Biden is like Cheney except that he is not in love with the idea of a unitary executive, tax cuts for the rich, torture, right-wing judges, warrantless domestic espionage, an unlimited commitment in Iraq, and the commitment of all possible resources to the enhancement of American hegemony around the globe. In short, the fact that the VP job might be their terminal position and that they come from small states obscures more than it defines. These are REALLY different people.
August 23rd, 2008 at 2:49 pm
I disagree. Its McCain’s age that should concern us. McCain looks tired a fair deal of the time. The Presidency doesn’t let up. He doesn’t have the requisite energy, the necessary stamina. A good deal, but no doubt not all, of his current crankiness and also of the factual errors follow, IMO, from McCain’s being tired, and that is a matter of his age. Whether Biden will be in similar straights in 8 years is anybody’s guess.
August 23rd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
I didn’t mean in terms of either man’s views or beliefs; I meant that it was a similar conception of the vice presidential office (except Biden will probably admit to being part of the executive branch).
We’ve had the era of the Vice President as non-entity except in case of death (Burr to Barkley); we’ve had the era of the Vice President as the heir apparent (Nixon to Gore); and now (if Obama wins) we seem to be moving into the era of the Vice President as ostensibly wise elder statesman, regardless of whether Cheney or Biden actually is wise or a statesman. Furthermore, unlike in the previous two eras, home state no longer seems to count for much.
August 23rd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Taskerbliss, you mistake the analogy for suggesting identity.
Matt, pundits are saying this because they’re fucktards who can’t handle a black president (or even one who likes black people) and will say anything at all to keep Obama from being one.
August 23rd, 2008 at 3:58 pm
The country will be in much better shape after 8 years of Obama, so it may be possible for a less-activist President after the Eisenhower model to govern effectively. Given our state of national disrepair, an Eisenhower type is quite obviously out of the question right now.
August 23rd, 2008 at 4:47 pm
what’s stopping Al Gore from running in 2016? he’ll only be 68 . . . .
August 23rd, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Matt, you’ve failed to consider that only one of two things can happen this November:
1. Joe Biden loses (along with Barack Obama, of course).
2. The 72-year old John McCain loses.
It seems to me that either of these things would put a serious damper on the possibility of Biden ever running successfully for President. 74 might not seem too old IF 72 were proved to be sufficiently young (ie, by McCain winning and pulling off a senility-free Presidency), but in that case Biden’s Presidential hopes would have been done in by being a VP loser (look how it’s worked out for Ferraro, Bentsen, Kemp, Lieberman, Edwards, etc.).
If John McCain were to lose this election, I think conventional wisdom will take hold of the idea that he lost because he was too old, and we can expect to see future candidates all run between the ages of 43 (JFK) and 69 (Reagan).
August 23rd, 2008 at 11:05 pm
I don´t know. Reagan´s age seems to explain why people like William Casey and Donald Regan had such enourmous power and why Reagan didn´t saw that Robert McFarlane was trafficking all kind of stuff behind his noses…
August 24th, 2008 at 3:09 am
Konrad Adenhauer became West German Chancellor at the age of 74 and he stayed in office for 14 years (and continued as CDU chairman for an additional 3 years).
As for Reagan, that assassination attempt took a lot out of him. He wasn’t the same man in November 1981 that he was in November 1980.
August 24th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Here is a crazy hypothetical idea:
Assuming Obama wins and has a successful first term, why not replace Biden with someone younger on the ticket for the second go round? Why not a one-term vice-presidency as a mentoring role, shoring up Obama´s perceived inexperience and then offer Joe SoS or any other position he likes? I think Joe might prefer something with a little more independence given his temperament. Look, the country is still too divided and pessimistic after the Bush years for Obama to govern as a dedicated progressive out of the gate (at least without having a ´94 style backlash at the midterms) but he could build momentum towards a more progressive approach in his second-term. Secondly, I don´t think Obama is a big mover by temperament, he seems more of an incremental pragmatist who prefers to work by consensus. Why not try to win moderates in the first 2 years, preserve the control of congress, reassure the American public that Obama is ready and then swing for the fences in ´11? By then, we could be out of Iraq, the housing crunch will hopefuççy have eased, the economy hopefully will be improving putiing us in a better fiscal situation to tackle bi problems. It´s about establishing legitimacy for progressive governance which we haven´t tried since…anyone? Then for the second-term you govern with a progressive mandate and groom a progressive successor to continue the legacy. I know this is beyond speculative right now, but since Matt brought up 2016…
but let´s stop the bleeding first, ok?
August 24th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Stop assuming that McCain’s physical ailments are the result of his “torture and captivity”. They could just as easily be the result of his plane being shot down.
August 24th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
“torture and captivity”? What torture? He just received some “enhanced interrogation”.
Good point re injuries due to plane crashes: losing five planes is bound to take a toll.
August 24th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
What about Hillary? Aren’t we all pretty positive that she’s going to run again at the next opportune time?
December 7th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Mr Nordyke will be responsible for the planning, directing and controlling of the actuarial operations of Fort Dearborn Life. He will also be responsible for actuarial operations at Colorado Bankers Life Insurance Company; both Colorado
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