What Was Saakashvili Thinking?
Commenter Aleks asks “Doesn’t the speculative rather than dry reporting nature of the blog free you to guess at what the hell President Mikhail Saakashvili could possibly have expected to happen?” It does! Best guess is that the central element in his calculation was that there’s only one road from Russia in to South Ossetia. Saakashvili was hoping, I think, that Georgia’s newly upgraded forces could quickly seize Tskhinvali and then either capture or destroy the tunnel connecting Russia to South Ossetia. Obviously, he misjudged his own country’s capabilities.
But it’s important to recognize that there was probably a larger miscalculation here. It seems to me that Georgia is actually lucky that Saakashvili’s military plans misfired. The idea, after all, was to force Russia to choose between accepting defeat in South Ossetia and marching through Georgia proper. Saakashvili, one assumes, thought that under the circumstances Russia would choose to accept defeat. I think, however, that he’s almost certainly wrong about that. Russia gives every sign of being really, really, really committed to its position on this issue and it’s hard to say why Saakashvili would have thought that Putin might be inclined to back down. One assumes that Saakashvili thought the U.S. would back him strongly enough to scare Russia off. That, however, is again a major miscalculation. The basic reality about Georgia is that Russia cares much, much, much more about what happens there than does the United States of America. One wonders whether Saakashvili just didn’t understand this somehow, or else if there were specific contacts of his inside the United States who gave him bad information of some kind.
40 Responses to “What Was Saakashvili Thinking?”
Register
RSSLogin
Topic Cloud
ArchivesBlog RollAbout Matt YglesiasContact Me
Donate
August 11th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
That’s right. Preference intensity is a crucial determinant of outcomes in international politics. Much more important than international institutions, for example, and rather seldom called on in Yglesias’s approach to international politics.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
The idea, after all, was to force Russia to choose between accepting defeat in South Ossetia and marching through Georgia proper. Saakashvili, one assumes, thought that under the circumstances Russia would choose to accept defeat. I think, however, that he’s almost certainly wrong about that.
Indeed, he’s definitely wrong about that, as Russia is currently marching through Georgia proper.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
An opinion I’ve had expressed to me is that Saakashvili thought Russia might not want to engage in fighting during the Olympics. That seems kind of insane, but whatever his reason the man clearly wasn’t thinking straight.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
MY: One wonders whether Saakashvili just didn’t understand this somehow, or else if there were specific contacts of his inside the United States who gave him bad information of some kind.
Matt Spetalnick writes for Reuters: “Vice President Dick Cheney called Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to express U.S. solidarity in the conflict with Russia and told him ‘Russian aggression must not go unanswered,’ the vice president’s office said on Monday. [via Froomkin/WaPo]
It looks like Cheney is telling Saaskashvili to charge up his Green Lantern ring and kick some Russian ass. That Georgia is punching far, far above it’s weight class in moving on the Russians in South Ossetia doesn’t matter. Georgia fudged it up by being failing to “answer” sufficiently. With what goes unsaid.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
What a maroon.
Thanks Matt.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
http://crudeanalysis.typepad.com/
Saakashvili’s PR Campaign vs. Putin’s Military Campaign… What was Saakashvili thinking?…. Russia-Georgia conflict and the impact on oil, etc.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
I don’t see how his being successful in taking South Ossetia could have led to worse results than he’s facing now. He was certainly stupid, but not quite that stupid. The Russians will probably be in Tbilisi before the week is out.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
He was thinking “hey, it worked for Fatah! Why not?”
.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Another point that I think has not been commented on during this crisis is that it leaves little doubt who (continues) to be in charge of Russia. It seems pretty clear that it is Putin who is the one representing Russia on this issue and Putin who is the one driving the strategy of state.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Putin dares Dubya to spank him, and Bush gets a good laugh out of it.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
One thing I haven’t seen any commentary on is, what does the West do? What can the West do? Obviously, neither Europe nor the U.S. has any direct influence over Russia, but are there any economic or prestige cards the West could play? Boot them from the G8? Line the Iron Curtain with windmills? Ban exporting iPhones to Russia?
It’s irritating that Putin is playing the PR game so much better than the Bush administration. Leaving aside the death and destruction, this whole episode makes Condoleeza Rice look really incompetent.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
The handling of the Roki Tunnel is going to be the most interesting thing to understand about this after the smoke clears.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
This is why such a complete military defeat is always followed by the collapse of the regime and the ascendancy of domestic opposition. Not that it’s such a shock. Clausewitz has something to say about that.
So much for the Rose Revolution, or whatever.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
“this whole episode makes Condoleeza Rice look really incompetent”
You know, we’ve waited 7 1/2 years for a conflict to arise that plays to Rice’s supposed expertise. Now we have one, and it doesn’t seem that Rice really is an expert on Russian affairs. She really seems to be universally incompetent. I guess we can give her some bonus points for consistency, but that’s a small consolation. Stanford should be ashamed of themselves for hiring her.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
AlanW.
It’s irritating that Putin is playing the PR game so much better than the Bush administration. Leaving aside the death and destruction, this whole episode makes Condoleeza Rice look really incompetent.
I like how everything is spun to make the Bush administration bad. What is she supposed to do? What are the Europeans supposed to do?
Putin’s playing the PR game well? Russia’s PR stock just dropped a huge amount. Are they going to occupy Georgia?
RRF:
Another point that I think has not been commented on during this crisis is that it leaves little doubt who (continues) to be in charge of Russia. It seems pretty clear that it is Putin who is the one representing Russia on this issue and Putin who is the one driving the strategy of state.
Yes, how Orwellian.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
She really seems to be universally incompetent. I guess we can give her some bonus points for consistency
Maybe after her time in the White House is over, she can get a job at Fremulon Insurance.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
or else if there were specific contacts of his inside the United States who gave him bad information of some kind.
Man, that is funny. Understatement of the day. Made me laugh. Oh America, your Empire of Sand and Fog is starting to dissipate.
August 11th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
On a related note, what was John Edwards thinking?
August 11th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Whatever the President of Georgia had in mind, he was obviously terribly, terribly wrong about the degree of the Russian response. Did he really believe that because of his flirtation with NATO that his country could be spared a bloody whipping by the Russian military in the face of this new provocation? There is absolutely nothing the West can do in response and McCain’s toothless-lion roaring makes him sound more like an idiot than he customarily does anyway.
August 11th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
MY: One wonders whether Saakashvili just didn’t understand this somehow, or else if there were specific contacts of his inside the United States who gave him bad information of some kind.
Hmm. My guess is he was thinking “April Gillespie? Why does that name sound so familiar? Oh well, I’ll look it up tomorrow.”
August 11th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Matt: “else if there were specific contacts of his inside the United States who gave him bad information of some kind.”
Hmmm…maybe these guys:
Debkafile:
August 11th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
“What is she supposed to do?”
How about predicting that this could be a consequence of her push to include Georgia in NATO? As a self-proclaimed expert on Russia, she should have some idea about how Russia will react to our policies. Apparently, her Russian expertise died with the Soviet Union.
August 11th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
Peter K.: What CR was supposed to do was have told Saakashvili that we would not come to their aid if they attacked Russia. As we should have told Saddam before he attacked Kuwait. When you’re Secretary of State of the United States, you’re supposed to actively manage our relations with each and every country in the world. You don’t get down to the level of highway tolls, but you definitely pay attention to your allies’ flashpoints. The fact that Saakashvili would even dream of taking action against Russia is an unconscionable failure of Rice’s State Department.
August 11th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
To the (Black) Sea?
August 11th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
The poor, naive little Saakashvili poked, poked, and poked the bear; and now the bear has responded. Saakashvili, “ooops, HELP us, my dear American and NATO friends!”. Yeah, help will be on the way, my little naive friend, as soon as we get ourselves out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Until then, you are on your own. By the way, we Americans also have this saying, “you start it alone, you finish it alone”. For now, all we can tell you is this: relax, it’ll be over in no time.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:22 pm
“you start it alone, you finish it alone”
Unfortunately, this is not what Cheney and Condi are telling the Israelis about Iran. Cheney actively wants Israel to attack Iran in order to cover his ass (and Israel has balked at that, despite the $30 billion weapons bribe). Israel would rather the US start it so they can claim they had nothing to do with it, despite all the AIPAC pressure in the US Congress.
And Condi just make the ludicrous remark that the US can’t dictate to Israel over Iran - when the US tries to dictate to Iran, Russia, China and everybody else in the world. But little old Israel is a “sovereign nation”, according to Condi, and we have no influence there. Lying bitch.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Speaking of Condi - - - where the hell is she? She is conspicuous by her absence.
August 12th, 2008 at 12:26 am
I think its obvious the Russians signalled in priavte that they wouldn’t respond as a ruse to provoke the Georgian engagement
August 12th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
# RRF Says:
Another point that I think has not been commented on during this crisis is that it leaves little doubt who (continues) to be in charge of Russia. It seems pretty clear that it is Putin who is the one representing Russia on this issue and Putin who is the one driving the strategy of state.
Because it’s a dog bites dog food story. No one ever doubted that Putin was still running the show.
# bob in fla Says:
Speaking of Condi - - - where the hell is she? She is conspicuous by her absence.
That’s because her career goal as Secretary of State is not to have her fingerprints on anything. Oh, and if you’re Bob Graham I’m rooting for you for VP.
October 13th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
http://gogle.com google
January 20th, 2009 at 2:33 am
laptop battery
laptop batteries
March 2nd, 2009 at 9:20 am
levitraIncredible site!
March 11th, 2009 at 9:37 am
Very interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
March 13th, 2009 at 5:39 am
I want to say - thank you for this!
March 14th, 2009 at 9:58 am
Great site. Good info
xanax
March 22nd, 2009 at 7:36 am
tramadol
I want to say - thank you for this!
April 2nd, 2009 at 10:27 am
I bookmarked this site. Thank you for good job!
buy cheap viagra
April 3rd, 2009 at 6:01 am
Very interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
cheap brand pfizer viagra
April 8th, 2009 at 4:29 am
I want to say - thank you for this!
viagra
April 19th, 2009 at 8:57 am
qwcFau nlgznnjhdxpa, [url=http://anpfijgwrdxx.com/]anpfijgwrdxx[/url], [link=http://uuwmwnscdhyc.com/]uuwmwnscdhyc[/link], http://jivxgxeidxll.com/