Matt Yglesias

15 Responses to “Winning the Week”

1. raff Says:
   June 30th, 2008 at 3:42 pm

   Interesting. According to Bowers’ forecast, McCain’s “Solid” & “Leans” electoral votes combined don’t even beat Obama’s “Solid” electoral votes.

   If McCain were to win all his “Solid” and “Leans” & Obama were do the same, then, even if McCain were to take all the “Toss-up” votes he’d still lose the electoral vote.

2. Bragan Says:
   June 30th, 2008 at 4:00 pm

   Sure, Bowers comes armed with some persuasive data.

   But base on my canvassing experience this weekend in deep blue Arlington County, I’m a little concerned about Obama’s poll numbers rest on a Bradley effect bubble.

   I asked identified voters their prefences in three races: president, VA Senate, and US House District 8 (Jim Moran). While a strong majority favored Warner and Moran over Republicans Gilmore and Ellmore, a slight majority favored McCain over Obama. Most memorably, I remember one 82 year old white man telling me that “something doesn’t quite fit” about the Democrat (Obama). I got the sense that maybe the foreign/muslim sounding name and/or skin color is hurting Obama more than the poll numbers suggest. Granted, my sample size was quite small — 15 out of 63 responded.

   My experience also makes me wonder if the Bradley effect is more likely to occur in a phone-based poll as opposed to a door-to-door survey. And, since I could pass for a conservative white guy (short hair and boring clothes), did that lead to more honesty from some voters?

3. Micheline Says:
   June 30th, 2008 at 4:27 pm

   Bragan,
   That really sounds depressing. I hope that is not the case but I could be wrong.

4. KCinDC Says:
   June 30th, 2008 at 6:36 pm

   Bragan, that’s a depressing anecdote, but a nonrandom sample of 15 isn’t evidence of anything. Plus I’d think the Bradley effect, if it exists, would be more likely to show up in face-to-face interactions. Isn’t the idea supposed to be that some people are embarrassed to say they wouldn’t vote for Obama when talking to a person but don’t have that consideration when alone in the voting booth? Why would someone be more embarrassed on the phone than in person?

   Of course I’ve never understood why these hypothetical people should be embarrassed to say they’re voting for McCain, since there are millions of people who will be doing that, most of them for nonracist (though often still stupid) reasons.

5. MNPundit Says:
   June 30th, 2008 at 7:33 pm

   The problem is the lead is shrinking. It should be growing. That means Obama is going backwards and this is disturbing and very nerve wracking not just because of the Bradley effect, but also because of the way Kerry lost and to some extent Gore. Democrats always see themselves losing close elections because unlike in fiction, the bad guys win.

6. cialis Says:
   March 1st, 2009 at 7:00 pm

   cialis
   Incredible site!

7. levitra Says:
   March 2nd, 2009 at 5:32 am

   levitraI want to say – thank you for this!

8. viagra Says:
   March 11th, 2009 at 4:53 am

   I want to say – thank you for this!

9. xanax Says:
   March 14th, 2009 at 5:37 am

   Very interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
   xanax

10. tramadol Says:
    March 17th, 2009 at 2:31 am

    I bookmarked this site. Thank you for good job!
    tramadol

11. tramadol Says:
    March 22nd, 2009 at 6:24 am

    tramadol
    Great site. Good info

12. brand viagra Says:
    April 2nd, 2009 at 5:32 am

    It is the coolest site,keep so!
    buy cheap viagra

13. cheap viagra Says:
    April 9th, 2009 at 6:56 am

    Incredible site! viagra

14. mjpbdfj Says:
    April 19th, 2009 at 8:58 am

    LXWWZi minbxyjgmfcn, [url=http://emuphuxnixzz.com/]emuphuxnixzz[/url], [link=http://xqxbxfnuuppd.com/]xqxbxfnuuppd[/link], http://ellenpujtfge.com/

15. jmspkya Says:
    April 20th, 2009 at 4:58 am

    rLLLMH ndbjehpnnxxu, [url=http://bmccmnxwnunz.com/]bmccmnxwnunz[/url], [link=http://exbtpjlengis.com/]exbtpjlengis[/link], http://cupbwznllavm.com/